Wilxy

Perfect! Even as far west as Ireland now into coldest uppers which makes me happy!

Up for work and a good start to the 00z suite GFS and UKMO going for same scenario whilst a better ECM this morning still winking heights towards Europe so it's far from consistent yet!

Looking through the models I have noticed that the Azores high is nudging up towards the high over Scandinavia so it terms of getting the best easterly possible we need it to stay further south so we can get a more southerly tracking Jet Stream, but its still being modeled to strengthen the Jet Stream over the top of the High so we need to be looking for trends where the tracking Low's out in the Atlantic undercut the High rather than going over the top.

Turning cold from the NE instead!

Nope!

48h and the Atlantic has been pushed further west again!

ECM ENS are out!

+8 uppers into London at 216h so lets see how much support it has later! Can't be discounted but seems quite extreme when most background signals point to a colder theme especially later in the month.

Its going to be very clear where this sits in its ensembles later so should tell us whether its a new trend or a complete outliner|!

Whilst it has the best verification stats its been poor the last few weeks, whilst the UKMO has been very consistent I won't be pulling the shotgun until the UKMO follows the ECM Plus lets see where the ENS are at 144h its going to be interesting

Right that's the GFS done, a great run again with plenty of cold opportunity, we have the ENS to follow then the ECM, I love this time of model watching when you just don't know what could be about to happen so we all become glued to are computer screens! I still think that we will get a second wave later in the month which will most likely give us the best chance of widespread cold, whilst what were seeing at the moment is the building blocks being put into place.

GFS isn't even bad look at how stubborn it is in keeping the easterly going even when there is energy going over the top good trend!

Much better than GFS! Still no agreement on how much energy is going over the top, so its onto the ECM next!

Has Meteociel crashed!

Positive Run!

Happy! At least the trend is continuing on the 18z for colder weather later next week, and it was a slight improvement on the 12z so overall a better end to the day model wise! GFS UKMO ECM JMA GEM Decent trend at 144h on high pressure building to are NE! GFS being worst case scenario, and GEM being best case scenario!

That is the best Easterly I have seen so far, keep trending in the right direction

Very Impressive Scandi High on this run!

After 144h. ECM UKMO GFS Looking like the ECM is more in line with the UKMO than the GFS!

At just 84 hours!

Evening! Great 12z suite with plenty of interest, can't see what the negativity is about i'm very happy with whats on offer, after a few weeks of that stubborn euro heights this week finally sees a change to some wet and windy weather which is quite welcome really as i'll take anything that has interest, speaking of interest whilst the charts may or may not be keen on colder weather we have this happening right now! The charts are bound to have a wobble when stratospheric warming is taking place with a second wave also forecast in a few days! I'm happy with the chance of some colder weather, and whilst some are saying a easterly won't happen February and March are more prone to them than say December and January, so for now I'm going to sit back and watch what will be a interesting few days, weeks of model watching

Evening All. Before we worry about the prospect of colder weather we still have no agreement on the Low pressure track for Friday! Met office are clearly backing there own model on the outcome as it stands, it will be interesting to see what the actual outcome is by Friday.

Yeah but notice as soon as a euro high type pattern is being forecast its very likely whilst when it was the opposite confidence was always low and that is because are default weather pattern is just that really

Evening All. Looking through the 12z ensembles it again looks like the main uncertainty is how much energy will go over the block and whether it will be flattened out quickly or hold on longer around Scandinavia but the last run shows another slight push south of the high resulting in the colder air pushing through France, its been a trend the last few runs so its not a surprise really but it should still be settled and cold as it stands especially at night if its clear!

So looking at the below chart am I right in thinking the Darker purples mean better agreement whilst the lighter colors south of Iceland mean uncertainty?