swilliam

Not at all - as you say looks good - the 528 DAM is just off the east coast - RM said on the 10:30 - Beeb 1 forecast that the cold air was coming back although he is a bit of a cold ramper.

The Burns day storm - not long ago

This I think is along the lines of what BFTP and GP are saying with the trough moving over us and then the -ve AO suuporting blocking to our North. This is shown to some extent by the ensembles with a steady drop in the mean from 23 rd to the end of the month (why do people keep the ensembles do not show anything - I think they look at the spread and then suggest there is nothing of interest?) So I think model watching over the next couple of weeks should be very interesting- I would also add the weather associated with the ECM 240 would be very interesting.

I thought one of the most interesting runs from the 12zs was the GFS control. It showed a completely opposite route (to the GFS op) to getting cold at the end of the month. It shows the Atlantic winning at +144 like most of the models This then goes on to show the deep lows to the North like the ECM but also having low hts due to being part of the PV. This then moves east and a small ridge develops in the Atlantic which with the -ve AO builds to a large blocking situation to our north along with a cold set up This I think is along the lines of what BFTP and GP are saying with the trough moving over us and then the -ve AO suuporting blocking to our North. This is shown to some extent by the ensembles with a steady drop in the mean from 23 rd to the end of the month (why do people keep the ensembles do not show anything - I think they look at the spread and then suggest there is nothing of interest?) So I think model watching over the next couple of weeks should be very interesting- I would also add the weather associated with the ECM 240 would be very interesting.

Very amusing - the JMA has the Lochness monster about to eat Iceland (serves them right for losing all our councils money). The actual output on the JMA look pretty good though with no early breakdonw on the Easterly next week.

I don't know which model or sum of models the MetO are using for their long term outlook but they are not seeing much cold - just colder than average (although I guess that could mean anything from rather could to extreme cold) 'During the first part of the week there will be one or two wintry showers here and there, although most places will be dry with colder than average temperatures, icy stretches and areas of mist and freezing fog. Then later in the week it currently looks likely that a mixture of rain, sleet and snow will encroach from the southwest, with less cold conditions edging into western and northwestern areas. Then over the weekend and during the second week we are currently expecting a gradual transition to nearer normal temperatures across all areas as a southerly or southwesterly airflow becomes established across the United Kingdom. There will be rain, sleet and hill snow at times, although confidence on the timing of this transition to milder weather is currently only low. They are then going with what is shown on the GEFS control run rather than the OP

It could but it is impossible to tell at the moment I am afraid - probably won't know till 24 hrs before.

Not according to the high resolution NAE - nearly all snow for the SW and Wales - and lots of it as well. I know what my money is on (and which you would prefer).

It seems to me that as well as the size, depth and position of the 1st low there is 2nd one which has an influence on whether the block is preserved to our NE. Looking a the GFS this small SW can be seen which heads into France and then the Med. This helps support the block and means in the end it sits at a more Northerly latitude In comparison the METO model does not have this feature (as well as having the deeper and more Northerly 1st low - this couldbe whty the 2nd low does not appear. The result is pretty near the end for the block in the medium term with WAA going NE rather than N or NW. The GEM model has the feature and ends up with a HP of 1045 in S Norway. JMA has the feature (slightly delayed) and also the best block in the end GME is similar to the UK Meto but the block is better preserved. It will be interesting to see what the ECMF shows. It seems the general pattern of a block to our E and an Atlantic trough sending depressions up Northwards and inducing ridges near us and amplifying the block is agreed by most of the models. Whether we are cold or not will depend on the E/W position of the block and the trough. Sorry for all the charts - I guess you could look for yourselves if you are interested..

There seem to be a lot more mild solutions compared to the last few days though.

No real downgrade or backdown - temps were always predicted to be slightly above freezing for today with DPs around zero. If you were going by BBC they were predicting about 2C in many areas in England and Wales. If you were going by BBC they were predicting about 2C in many areas in England and Wales. Looking at the uppers there is a small pool of colder air to come over us today - which could enhance the snow potential. The only downgrade has been the lack of snow which I think was a forecasting error. Looking later in the week as well it was always likely that there was going to rain/sleet round the coasts - the amount depending on the exact track of the low which is still yet to be decided. I must say the the +84 Fax does not look good from that perspective with certainly some milder air coming into the SW - as I say this is still quite a way away for this event yet. Thereafter the GFS does bring in some milder air next weekend but then reverts to a huge HP to our North in FI (not normal winter as someone erroneously stated above). ECM does not bring in any mild weather at all. As someone correctly stated above in the previous very cold winters many days were just above freezeing with uppers around 0-(-5) but surface cold. It was only when cold pools spread that there was continuous frost and these only usually lasted a few days. So I hope that every time the temp goes up slightly people are not going to go about and the end of the cold spell and the breakdown. That to me is when the block is completely displaced back into Europe and we have mild (at least with temps near average) Atlantic winds over most of the UK>

I think he got put off because when he got excited about the snow for tonight and tomorrow when it showed up about 7 days ago was told that it was FI (and therefore shouldn't be talking about it) - it is very irritating when people constantly say that. As it transpired the forecast was pretty accurate in terms of the overall pattern (it was even talked about on the Country File forecast). It has arrived about 24 hours later and is not intense as it might have been. The possibilities for a reload in far FI are well shown by the splitting and disrupted PV in the GFS 12Z. Most of the PV is pushed into Siberia aided by a lot of WAA through the centre of the US (rather unusually as it normally moves up the West coast - I do not know how realistic that is). At the end of the run the PV is split into 3 with part of it possibly heading our way.

Wrong chart, he was talking about the 2nd chart he posted for Sunday This is the chart he and I were referring to I do not think I need to highlight the 528 dam for you.

I think they are the mean of the ops for the several days in question. Not the mean of the ensembles and the days in question. If it was it would not show any features as it would be so smeared out (like the average of the ensembles shown on wetterzentral but also averaged over several days). So yes you are right they are not very helpful these charts as they show the average of several days charts but everyone seems to like them.I think the average of the ensembles are more useful but no one seems to use them.

No it does not and we are not - I brought this up when the chart came out last night.

Also in the extended ensemble. There is still the step in some members at Jan 16th - but this has been put back a day from yesterday - always a good sign. Control run looks good.

where is your location?

Indeed and it is remarkable (synoptically) how similar the ECM240 chart is to the UKMO60. It is like the block goes off for a wander round the N.Atlantic/Scandi region and then comes back to where it was.

Yes and how does it seems completely unreal. It handles the block quite nicely in the high res part of the run moving it a bit NW than previously, allowing some undercutting, more cold air coming down the Eastern flank possibly for a reload for Europe and maybe us so we arrive at this at the end of the high res. Then in the low res bit a small SW comes round the main low out to the West of us. Are we in for a big battle? Certainly not - this massive depression of 980mb and a few hundred miles across (generously) has blown our block, which was straddling from Europe to Greenland, away in 3 days. The Atlantic floods in - something wrong I think.

When you say marginal do you mean it might or might happen or that it may turn to rain (the predicted temps and dews are quite high)

Snow streamer shown on NAE for our area Fri morning

Totally agree - part of the BBC AGW campaign - cold spells can no longer occur.

Looking at the ensembles in more detail. 1st thing to say is that the op is on of he milder solutions. Looking in detail it is clear that they split inot two groups at about t240. There is a clustered group that go for mild - presumably in these cases the block is overun or sinks. There are also a lot of cold solutions and some extremely cold. An example of this evolution is given by the control run on the GEFS ensembles So the cold spell could end in a week to 10 days or there could be a reload.

I think this is it One assumes that the 528 DAM coming North represents some warmer air (hopefully off the surface) giving snow

very heavy now