Barometer Obama

Sounds good to me GTLTW. The temps are stabilising here, DP -1, air temp 2, wind straight out of the South. The front is slowing with PP pepping up over N Ireland as we speak This is all positive news (except for wind direction of course) BO

GTLTW, Just looked back at your earlier post with the 525 dam line shifting back as the cold air does force its way back sunday morning. We really do need the first warm front to start to slow down, the BBC forecast I just saw seem to still think it will. BO

Morning, and good luck to all. Just been looking on the SW forum, snowing in Somerset raining in suthern parts of Devon where the DP has risen from -8 overnight to 0 now! DP was -8 at mine this morning at 8am, already up to -4 and still rising, wind has backed to SE direction. Gut feeling is snow here for an hour and then turning to rain, I hope I'm wrong. What will be interesting is to look back after the event and see at what point along the south (if any, I'm certain Brighton & beyond will) manages to hold on to an all snow affair. BO

"mind you, we need the precip first! Watch those radars folks! and if somebody in Weymouth reports snow then i would immediately get on the sherry." Hi Horse, I haven't got any sherry in but may make a purchase tomorrow just in case! If it starts snowing in Weymouth none of us will be on this forum, we'll all be out looking to the sky awaiting our turn! BO

Actually Nick while your still about, didn't a similar event to tomorrow happen at the end of the long cold spell Dec 2010? I seem to remember that we had an Atlantic low come across the embedded cold and delivered rain for the coast with snow falling 20 miles inland which turned to rain after a few hours. It didn't hurt too much as we'd all had two decent snow falls earlier in the month.

No worries mate, thanks for your posts on here tonight, I fear they may ring true. ATB for the Baggies tomorrow!

Evening all. I would say Winchester tends to escape the dreaded coastal rain. I can certainly remember a handful of events where we had rain in S'ton and Pompey but you didn't have to venture far up the M3 to find the Snow. Its already a possible agenda for me to get up on sunday and drive up the M3 to loacte snow which I'd expect find just N of Winchester. Caution, don't be peed if I'm wrong and we have to drive all the way to B'stoke!

Yes John, the confusion continues. GFS push everything east and then Deakin pushes it back west again...

Mmmmm. Looked at the models that I have access to, and the ones posted by GTLTW and others. Not such a question now of "will it won't it" but more where? My emotions are torn as I'm hoping to do the Ryde 10 road race on IW on sunday morning, however......? Still my head is saying that the coast won't get snow, I think the wind direction for us could be crucial. While we're all posting on here saturday evening like a load of men/women possessed, it would be good to mention current wind directions along with temps and pressures. It could be a mixture of heartbreak for some and elation for others on this forum come 1am sunday No doubt things will look different in 24 hours time...?? BO

Slow moving channel low for me please! BO

I can't see anyone answered this and I'm gradually catching up with todays events and trawling this forum... There were 2 snow events for S Hants in Dec 2010, the first was the best. The block was secure with a Greenland & Scandi high. LP was centred over europe and a short wave was spawned. It was my favourite night on this website (what a saddo) as we couldn't see it coming, ie there was no precip that came across the channel. The instability just pepped up in Kent and then gradually spread west giving us very fine but persisitent snow...6 inches in fact. Anyway, back to Feb 2012, very different. BO

Presumably the LP that appears of the west coast of Scandi on the fax charts on friday? This looked very promising for the SE yesterday but not so good today as it sinks over Holland. However, the models could change again tomorrow. It feels like they currently alternate between great (for cold & snow lovers) and then bad (if you don't want mild to return). If the trend of the models continues along a gulf stream resergence I fear I will see little snow down here on the coast. If the east does manage to fight back and hold it off there is the potential for a real dumping somewhere, but not sure we'll have much confidence in where until friday. BO

3 degrees here, dew point 1, pressure on the drop and slight easterly wind picking up. Just been for a long run, no evidence of any pp here yet. No doubt on the way looking at other posts but certain to be rain tonight. The pp won't be heavy enough and the dew point is too high. Looking ahead, fascinating to see what happens next weekend, lets hope its not snow fest for all except those south of the M4!

Hi Joneseye & GLTW. I've not been on for a while GLTW so sorry I missed your earlier obs. You both made some valid points, the Dam line on the GFS is nowhere near far enough south and the cold isn't embedded. Think it will be one to nowcast on the night. I was very surprised when I saw the forecast this morning, it feels wrong. I reckon the met-office may retract the extent of the snow over the next 24 hours. We shall see.....

Happy New Year to all. Just seen the BBC deliver a fairly incredible forecast with the heavy snow pushing north on thursday night. Their demographics (treat with caution) suggest snow for all during the night and then turning to rain friday morning. I'm sure this has come out of the blue and I've just had a look at the GFS model run and the outputs don't suggest conducive conditions for snow south of about Banbury. Perhaps something to keep an eye on though? Could the BBC be onto something?

With the warm up, I was looking at a couple of days beyond (see attachment) but you could argue that is outside the reliable time frame, and you'd be right. Yes boxing day still looks a tad nippy but I don't see much precip about over the weekend?? Possibly late boxing day into monday? Total agreement on your last sentence.

I have to admit that the models are now pointing to a warmer spell of weather next week, but I'm with a lot of people on here in that it would be nice to be able to walk normally again. In the short term the BBC are still talking about this little band of snow that may sink itself south tonight. Probably one to watch on the radar and presumably it will involve the north of our region. Unless this does come steaming south I'm checking out for now. Happy Xmas to one and all

Hi, sorry to hear you too have to endure Burs Tesco! I'm going to bed and I have 2 reasons why you should consider doing the same. 1. The track of the precip is to our east (although the lighter stuff will clip S'hampton) 2. I'm certain it will be rain,and probably will be quite a bit further inland this time. The 850s temp is too warm and are ground temps and dew points are marginal at best. But Peter Gibbs has eluded to possible snow tuesday night/wed morning........

The Barometer agrees with the Snow Dog. There is definitely another wave of heavy precip building off the south coast of Cornwall. But will it get here and will the temps drop enough for widespread snow. Anyway, off to the worst place on earth......Bursledon Tesco! Hopefully when I return in an hour or 2 it will be progressing nicely and the mood on here may be a bit brighter.

What model are you getting this from? I've just double checked the GFS and ECM and they both have us in a NE wind with the Atlantic looking like a damp squid. Possible warm up at the weekend but nothing substantial and certainly not locked in.

Oh. There appears to be a new band of intense precip appearing between Brest and Lands End. Could hit this area in a few hours? Could it intensify? Could the temps have dropped by the time it makes landfall? Just trying to reignite those down in the dumps (rain). This winter, anything is possible.

As OMM has said looks like the wind perhaps scuppered us on the coast. Now +3 in Locks Heath, DP +1, wind veered to more southerly at 11am onwards which coincided with snow turning to sleet/rain. Classic case of "location location location", for example snow in Eastleigh and Verwood, rain in Christchurch and here. Need to look at charts for the possible wednesday/thursday event. Best of luck to all those 10 miles inland (ish)

I've got a feeling that I'm gonna wish I was living 50 miles further east!

Morning OP. What else is crucial ? Always tend to struggle down here on the coast, eg last Feb.

Sadly I think you may be right, the 850 temps don't look quite cold enough until wednesday afternoon.