Barometer Obama

UKMO updated on meteociel looks good. Precipitation for us southerners tuesday night, lets hope its cold enough!

Couldn't agree with this more. Cold weather coming and very good chance to see snow later next week. Have a rare situation with the Greenie high and the models are understandably struggling to determine how the finer details are going to pan out. I'm trying now just to look up to 96 hours in an attempt to stay sane.

The rollercoaster continues. It looks to me like any precipitation on wednesday would be rain/sleet but then snow more likely thursday onwards. I think patience is going to be the key, the Greenland high is virtually a dead cert and this should deliver.

Sure the charts are a little of a worry, but yesterdays were truly amazing. I think we'd all have been happy a month ago if we knew that we'd be viewing charts like this in December! http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gfsp/run/gfs-0-180.png?0

Wow some great charts this morning with the GFS and ECM showing awesome potential. I was concerned when I saw the UKMO with the west looking to wake up, but I feel reassured by some decent comments backed up with evidence and examples of why, even if it isn't an outlier it won't be bad news!

"I must admit, my main reason for having this gut feeling is that I've seen the GFS overdo cold blasts at this range so many times and more often than not they downgrade to a watered-down version. But not always." This is what I was alluding to earlier. I seem to remember a general feeling from last winter that the GFS is actually a bit of a ramper and that the ECM does tend to be a bit more down to earth and more importantly right! Looking forward to the updates, this forum will be so boring if they all start to agree.

"I really dont understand what your getting at." Lewis, just curious as to which model people trust the most. I guess that it depends on too many factors and that we should be veering towards what the general consensus is, which on this occasion is with the GFS. However, from previous visits to these forums I have maybe incorrectly got a vibe that the ECM is generally more accurate ?

Fair point TEITS. One question; if you had to trust one of the models, GFS or ECM which would you go for, ignoring the current situation. I'm sure I know a lot less than yourself and visit these forums infrequently, however, I always get a feeling that most would trust the ECM ahead of the GFS. I can see that in the current situation the GFS has backing from other models therefore giving it more weight. Thanks in advance for thoughts.

Although we shouldn't ignore the hear and now, surely past experience is not to be forgotten. I suspect most people on this forum would love for the GFS to be right but where one of the other models (ECM) is currently not playing ball, ie very different position of the HP, logic would dictate that we should not be getting over excited....yet.

Just glad that HP is taking a hold for a while as I appear to have a leak in the roof following all this rain! Looking forward to following charts & forum over the coming week to see how it all pans out. I guess the the important thing today is to see whether the ECM and GFS start singing from the same hymn sheet again, always a worry when discrepancies start appearing! BO

Places I COULD drive to. Work tomorrow in Pompey and i've apparently demolished 3 cans of london pride while dreaming about living north of the M4.

Fascinating. Just had a nose at a few weather stations. Its currently 8C here on the S coast, but in places like Gloucs, Bucks and Oxf its zero. 8 degree difference to places that I could drive to in an hour or 2!

My goodness, its turned back to snow. Not getting too excited as it will turn back to rain. Just to send people further north over the edge, the flakes are the size of beer mats!

Yep, heavy rain here. The temp hasn't risen still 2C, but the dewpoint is now zero and the pressure is falling. Good luck to all further north.

Fairly certain its just the leading band that will be wintry. However, down here, dew point still -2.5, wind ENE. The main event appears to be heading over Normandy as we speak I suspect the warmer air will arrive with this.

Looks like rain for the south. What are the odds of the cold air pushing further south wednesday night and bringing us a pleasant white surprise ?

Yep just started here again. Glad i'm off work today, walk down to the Hamble after fry up. T

Apolgies for gratuitous arrogance, but my post of yesterday morning hinted at showers for coast this morning. Don't know where South today are getting 6C from? GFS top temp for us is 3C. Weather station near me currently 1.2, dew point -0.3. I really don't think this is the end either, obviously very touch and go but if the cold from the north can dig far enough down we could see a more thurs/fri. Toby

Sun shining here now! Forecast implies that the heavy band moving north this afternoon is going miss Hants, however there is a small band of showers hitting us 6am tomorrow morning, could be more sleet than snow......

2cm here this morning. Very pleased for the people in B'mouth and Poole, its called snow!

Wonderful stat. I bet it was depressing chalking up those 11 years. Were you reguarly frustrated by reports of snow in Oxford and Didcot?

Yes, just seen this on the MO radar, a decent set of showers building but currently dying a death about mid sussex.

Thanks. Does this not suggest that we are likely to get nearer 10cm than 2cm along the Sussex/Hants coast ? I suspect its more complex than this and the snow doesn't really take hold till it gets a few miles inland. The IW may become important to those of us near me?!?

As I see it we've got 2 chances of a decent accumulation in the next 24hrs, but both have the potential to take the form of the pear. 1. Tonight a significant band of snow is going to push through Essex, London, and Surrey. Most maps have the coast being on the edge of this, but fingers crossed. 2. Tomorrow afternoon, the heavy snow that moves up from NW France is set to just miss us, but its marginal so again fingers crossed.