Mac_SE

Hi Robert Is your method model related? Thanks

Would agree. As a relative newcomer here, this is how I deal with it all John, especially when an easterly peeks over the horizon. a. digest and learn carefully from a small, select band of members who post time and again with informative, balanced, model related views b. read between the lines/take with a pinch of salt/scroll quickly past at least 80% of what the other posters throw in. They're all so attached to their own type of preferred weather, they will write their posts from that perspective, regardless of what the models actually indicate and c. generally ignore everything else - it's invariably of a flabby, 'here's my opinion, but not backed up with any model evidence whatsoever' variety. Taken me a while to get there, but now works a treat.

What was it the Mod asked for at the top of the thread? This forum's actually OK when there's not an easterly about, but when it is, boy, it's just too painful for words. Less personal justification, more model chat please...

Thanks for taking time out to reply Nick. Much appreciated. So, given what you've said, that it's essentially a knife-edge situation, is it not the case that the next run could re-introduce the easterly set-up? And if that's true, why the hysteria shown by people here who must know this?

Amid all this hysteria and wrist slashing, can someone vaguely sane please give me a completely balanced appreciation as to how the models can flip flop so severely? I understand there will always be variations in runs, but not five minutes ago Mr Murr was waxing down his skis in anticipation, then two seconds later people are digging out their T-shirts...

Sign off from Joe B's latest blog update: "BTW get ready, the thaw ends next week and major snows may be back later next week and beyond." Anyone know what models Accuweather base their forecasts on, because so far he's been spot on this winter?

LS can you explain why? I always thought entrenched cold air with a low pushing in from SE meant a good 'ol dump... was the front too warm? Thanks!

Still going here, light but persistent. So that's over two hours now. Not bad. Feeling slightly better about last night's non-event.

Spot on unfortunately. Much lighter now. At least it's covered the roads again.

Just to tease us it's finally coming down. Anyone know how long we've got left of this?

I hear your pain GSHCL, here's hoping it's our turn next time around.

Snow finally here too... fairly steady. Falling onto wet surfaces though so not sticking.

Could someone far more experienced than me explain how the warm front managed to take Sky, BBC (and some of us on here!) by surprise? (Dew points, uppers etc?) and how is it their super-computers are not able to detect such minute changes from as little as 9-12 hours out when you would expect such forecasts to be nailed on? Apologies if it's already been explained.

Playing Spot the Flake here ATM, but wind's definitely got up. Beats doing the tax return

Sounds spot on to me. Let the SW have their cold/mild battle and prepare for possible reloads.

Takes me back to '96 when BBC forecast a huge dump and woke to zilch... Just spotted a few flakes, almost covered what we had last week

Apologies if I've missed this in an earlier post, but why exactly did the snow not materialise as much as they thought it would...?

Totally agree. Loads to catch up on and need to unglue myself from NW forum! Great fun, but can't for the life of me focus on anything else when there's a possible dump on the horizon, even if it doesn't actually arrive in our neck of the woods. Here's to the next installment, but for now there's a tax return to do...

Green? By the end of the day? Hmm.

So we miss the stuff to the south and east of us and tomorrow it's all north west of us... Unbelievable.

Who was it that said the anticipation of coffee and cigars is so much better than the real thing? That's what I feel like with the snow for London this winter.

Would love to be watching that rather than moaning into my keyboard, but I could count the number of flakes round my lampost over the past few hours...

Apart from 2-4pm today when it was a proper wind and snow (but no, not really a proper full on blizzard), it's been another case of 'close, but no cigar' for us in SE London. Guess I need to take the exciting ramping posts (cue Steve Murr) and TV forecasts (Mssrs McElwee & Wilson) and stick 'em in my ever burgeoning 'Missed' pile. Just know I'll wake to mild snizzling in the morning and that may be that for this neck of the woods for now anyway. Will feel a bit of a fraud in years to come when conversations turn to 'Winter '10 snow depths.' 'Yeah, awful, had to dig ourselves out of, ooh must have been all of two and a half inches...' Oh for the ramping to hold true once in a while...

Backtrack, backtrack. Yawn.

Er where exactly is the snow Mr Wilson predicted? One minute it's forecast, the next it's gone.is the forecast really that fluid?