NorthNorfolkWeather

Out of luck there John, may be snow lying for the rest of the winter. What do you make of the continued quakes in Barda? Lots of variation in depth and strength, but still mainly in the East/North East segment

And a 3 following on a little later. Still very active overall

Hi BF, Interestingly, the total number of quakes over the period they view here is on the increase again. A couple of days ago, it got as low as 176, currently it's back up over 300. Couple of quakes over M4, one quite shallow

Lumpy bumpy today. Couple of quakes well above M4 (one 5.2). Couple of weaker (very) shallow quakes Makes you wonder what all these quakes are doing to the caldera. Wonder what the total energy of all the quakes in the Caldera gas been to date

some more M4+ overnight, all around the caldera. Otherwise looks steady as she goes

I think there was about 300 metres separation on those 2 quakes, as you say very close to the surface. I wonder what the ice has been doing through all of this? How much has melted and what size the lake beneath the ice is

Yes, it is very shallow, the rim will have been given a good rattle with that. Now let's see if it's done anything. My concern is that it just moves the strain closer to the surface, possibly not enough fissures to let lava escape (now watch for a full on eruption)

Thanks

IMO's website seems to have disappeared. Been saying it's being updated for the last 20 minutes

Several of the southerly based quakes around the caldera seem to be shallower than the east and northeast based ones. As JP said earlier, the M3+ certainly are not slowing in frequency or strength.

Makes a change :-) you, JP and others are usually there before me. Really close in time terms, it's almost as though each quake releases strain at one point just for it to transfer to another place and build and release there. I did notice that they are working their way closer to the surface

Spate of M3+ quakes, mostly NE side Date Time Latitude Longitude Depth Magnitude Quality Location Sunday 05.10.2014 07:10:28 64.676 -17.478 8.9 km 3.9 99.0 4.6 km NNE of Bárðarbunga Sunday 05.10.2014 06:06:42 64.678 -17.463 3.1 km 3.9 99.0 5.2 km NE of Bárðarbunga Sunday 05.10.2014 05:19:21 64.669 -17.454 7.2 km 3.8 99.0 4.8 km NE of Bárðarbunga Sunday 05.10.2014 04:53:21 64.685 -17.495 7.6 km 3.5 99.0 5.3 km NNE of Bárðarbunga Sunday 05.10.2014 04:01:00 64.668 -17.457 7.5 km 3.6 99.0 4.6 km NE of Bárðarbunga Sunday 05.10.2014 03:54:54 64.666 -17.450 8.3 km 4.8 99.0 4.7 km NE of Bárðarbunga Sunday 05.10.2014 03:44:24 64.616 -17.503 5.0 km 3.6 99.0 2.9 km SSE of Bárðarbunga Sunday 05.10.2014 02:40:51 64.684 -17.496 4.7 km 4.1 99.0 5.0 km NNE of Bárðarbunga Sunday 05.10.2014 02:40:29 64.670 -17.477 8.2 km 3.6 99.0 4.1 km NE of Bárðarbunga Sunday 05.10.2014 02:19:27 64.619 -17.520 0.8 km 3.4 99.0 2.4 km S of Bárðarbunga Sunday 05.10.2014 01:45:44 64.673 -17.461 7.4 km 3.7 99.0 4.8 km NE of Bárðarbunga Sunday 05.10.2014 00:54:48 64.666 -17.418 1.6 km 3.2 99.0 6.0 km ENE of Bárðarbunga

Cloudy here as well, trees moving in the wind, will need the hatches battened down later on

I don't know about you, but to see that rock bubbling away like that is incredible. I cannot conceive of the forces needed to produce it (the footage is better without the music IMO) A question. When this all started, there was a diagram about the flow from the main magma chamber under Barda that showed the picture below (from Volcanocafe with their attribution beneath) Image by Margaret E. Hartley/Thor Thordarson. Upper part shows a closed propagating dyke. The lower shows a rift open down to the mantle. The upper version draws its magma from a central volcano, the lower from the mantle. Upper alternative would give a smaller eruption than the lower. Does anyone have any idea which sort of source is beneath the fissure eruption? Also, if it is the top one, can it evolve to the bottom one by rock along the flow melting

Fog just lifted Sun shining on the last "summer like" day for us. Roll on Autumn

Thanks Yarmy and Jonboy for the comments re SO2, will be interesting in many ways as we have an Easterly QBO, a stalled (or at least a slow and low) El Nino, and what, to date has looked like the Polar Vortex getting going a little earlier than normal. So conflicting signals with the QBO and SO2 going for a colder regime whereas the other two point to a milder setup. Battleground perhaps? Add in an extra 30% SO2 to the atmosphere, mix thoroughly and watch Chaos Theory in action. In the meantime, it doesn't look as though there have been any quakes at the fissure for several hours, some small ones at Big Bad Barda, just awaiting another M4+.

Possibly not the forum for this question, but has anyone considered the effect of all that SO2 (and other gasses) being released? Admittedly most is at a low level, but just the heat is enough to produce thermals that will carry the pollution considerably higher. I would expect most of the low level stuff to be leached out by low pressure systems running through, but we've had 3 weeks of pretty calm weather, anyone know if there's anything on the web that shows hemispheric SO2 at different heights?

Big quake that For the new fissure John did you mean the activity on the left of the shot?

Sorry if the writing/ spelling poor. Doing this a thu phone That 4.1 quake is only 900 metres down so that is above Sen level Lots of lce above it, But getting much closer to ite surface

Fixing the Bash Shellshock bug by any chance? Of course you can guarantee that during this time there will be a phenomenal amount of weather related news -- or perhaps an Icelandic Volcano going BOOM

Very quite before that M5.0 seems that a big quake now shakes everything down and it takes a day (or more) of strain before we get the next biggie. North East side again I see, there has been a huge release of energy on that side of the caldera since this started.

Nothing of great substance since your report, few minor quakes otherwise quiet. Another day of waiting

The video reminds me of the film Volcano, where they diverted lava out to sea. You couldn't see that happening in real life looking at that -- inexorable forward movement.

well, it's keeping us guessing ( and waiting) I thought I was beginning to detect some form of pattern in the quakes, but that last group around 18:00 put paid to another theory The quakes at the caldera are definitely edging closer to the surface on the E/NE Flank. I suppose if it does blow we have to hope the jet stream is heading away from us if we want to avoid too much disruption. Looking at the charts, the only time the Jet stream would be a problem is the next 3-5 days (assuming GFS is right after day 5)

It's not allowing itself to be rushed. As the IMO says it could yet fizzle to nothing -- or we could get a very large bang Nobody know what will happen Nobody knows when it will happen All I know is that there is a shedload of lava coming out of the fissure (and it seems there's plenty more in the pipeline) Just looked at the quakes again after a couple of hours and they are definitely thinning out. Down to 229 for Vatnajokull ( was over 2,000 a couple of weeks ago) Seems that each big one now reduces (dramatically) the number of little ones following. Until strain builds up again within the system