NorthNorfolkWeather

I have a lot of time for Jon FR, he's been on the button most of the time. So it's making it's own weather locally, I suppose what happens over the coming weeks determines whether it will have wider effects. Do we know the regional effects Mt St Helens had when she went up? I think that's the closest (in terms of date) to a big blowout. Looking at the charts it seems that Northern Scandinavia could get a lot of fallout if it blows in the next few days, but then we have to factor in what effect the injection of Ash and SO2 into the stratosphere would have

Hi John, I heartily agree about the travel chaos, I'd have to get back from Sweden :-( I wonder what we'll see first, something in the crater or something in the fissure under the ice? The 2 M4's under the ice suggest that will go first. Do we know the ice thickness there? It must be quite a bit thinner there than higher up, could still make a mess though. And then there's another in the crater, glad I'm not there

Hi BF, have a look at https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/81229-b%C3%A1r%C3%B0arbunga-and-askja-volcanic-activity/page-40#entry3034703 a couple of pages ago, found it on Twitter

Any bets on the strength of the earthquakes before 08:00 this morning? Mine's a 5.1

Any winter may eed to be heavily modified if we get a big bang in Iceland. This whole year has appeared to be early, but I can't, at the moment see a cold autumn unless we do get a big eruption

Found this via the RUV Twitter site Interesting that the depression, when measured on a "grand" scale looks minute, but I wonder how much water there is in the bottom 100 metres now -- rather than ice. Looking at the bottom part of the graphic, if the cauldera is enclosed and there is nowhere for it to run off to, the amount of water will be colossal. Looked up in Wikipedia, the cauldera is 70 sqkm, if we assume just the bottom 100M has melted, that 70 Billion tons of water to vapourise it all you would need 1.582e+16 kJ (Joules) of energy. Hello irresistable force, meet immovable object

They have confirmed that really quickly, Sunday 07.09.2014 07:07:56 64.613 -17.476 3.9 km 5.4 99.0 3.9 km SE of Bárðarbunga again on the Easterly side

I've been thinking about the late night earthquakes. They cannot be strictly tidal as they would get later (as an average, they would creep) into the night that hasn't happened on my reading of the situation. That being said, the quakes around the caldera have been strong and consistent, Bara may yet go bang

So if the other fissure is shooting fountains of 100m, what are those? 500M?

Yep, I made a couple of assumptions (like the Glacier being 200m deep at that point and that the Ice dropped 5 metres (would probably drop more like 50) and came up with 15 billion tonnes for a 3.2 earthquake. I got the energy emitted from http://alabamaquake.com/energy.html#/ neat site

Ahhh, good point That'll teach me to read the whole thing After all the work I've just done as well c'est la vie

Wonder if that's an Ice quake? The last part of that Video of the new fissure showed quite a depression. Anyone know how how far a given weight of ice would have to fall to produce a 3.2? I might try to work it out in a minute

And to follow up on what Buried is saying, the longer the eruption lasts, the more potential effect it has. At lower levels the SO2 comes out quite quickly as acid rain, mostly sulphurous acid, but if it's being constantly replenished then that's not funny. With the jet stream liable to carry the SO2 around it's quite likely that at least the Northern part of the UK will be affected during the coming months if this eruption persists.

Good catch that. I wouldn't have seen them Lots happening

I agree with what you say there, but I was only referring to Blocking patterns. The acid rain and all the other problems --- they win depend solely on the size of the eruption.Also, the Wikipedia entry (hopefully correct) says it started with phreatomagmatic explosions. That would have given the Initial burst into the high atmosphere.

as an ex chemist, I have my doubts as to whither the S02 will have much effect on the winter unless we got a big bang. SO2 is a heavy gas and will stay in the lower atmosphere unless there is a big explosion. I think it needs to be in the upper troposphere or Stratosphere to affect our weather with Blocking. I may be wrong, if I am can one of the experts put me right

I was wondering what effect tidal forces would have. They are at one (of the 2) weaker times of the month at the moment, building up again into next week. I suppose magma is liquid and is affected by the tides, but much less than water

So barda is slipping. Have to start looking at changes and rates of change. This will still be going for quite a while I think. Wonder when the next big quake in the caldera will be!

Hi L, I noticed that as well. The cauldera is getting well shaken up. I just wonder what that is doing to the magma chamber. We still have hundreds of metres of ice above the mountain adding to whatever the pressure on the surrounding rock is. Every quake increases the chance of Bunda going bang

It was a white speck last night Seriously, some cracking shots taken today and if there are any people in there that don't have gas masks, more fool them

Hi Lorenzo, I noticed that as well when I looked about an hour ago, you beat me to posting it. Three of those quakes are on the eastern flank of Bunga and are not too deep, wonder whether there's slipage into the magma chamber. The 5.4 yesterday was on the south east side and relatively shallow That could fit in with John Pike's comment about a flank collapse as there are a group of EQ's all in the same area (see Rustnailer's post above)

Yep, caught out last night by the sensitivity of cameras in the dark. Never mind there is something this morning :-) That looks a bit more energetic than the eruption earlier in the week

A large number of (as yet) unverified quakes near the surface this morning. Could be wind affecting the instruments or could be a prelude to a more general fissure eruption

Aye John, cycling through again. another quake at the end of this or some magma? Too late to worry now, the bed is calling

That assumes I know what I'm talking about. What I said was purely guesswork, with a (very ) small amount of knowledge. I think most of us are learning as we go. There are several people on here that know much more than me