NorthNorfolkWeather

First time in a while that no big quakes are showing at Barda. There was a question asked last week about tidal effects that were mostly discounted. Looking at the way the quakes seem to have moved through the day, I wonder whether there is an element of tidal interaction, perhaps not with the lava directly, but the stress placed on the crust as the moon orbits the earth. IF (and it is a big IF) that's the case, we could be waiting until the period around the new moon for anything big to happen as tidal forces will be decreasing now until then. All conjecture of course, we wait with anticipation, nature will take it's own time. As Karyo says above JonFR seems very confident about there being a major collapse. John, when Pinetubo went up how high did the ash cloud go? JonFR is expecting 20Km which seems a long way

Another couple around the Caldera, one ESE, one North, both near 3.5, both checked, neither particularly shallow

Could be the cause of the fresh round of small quakes

I think they are forecasting light winds, so what comes out will hang about

Compare the 2 in bold almost identical positioning, but the newer one considerably closer to the surface Saturday 13.09.2014 07:58:15 64.666 -17.447 3.0 km 4.9 99.0 4.7 km NE of Bárðarbunga Friday 12.09.2014 23:58:55 64.672 -17.485 7.1 km 4.7 99.0 4.1 km NNE of Bárðarbunga Friday 12.09.2014 23:52:13 64.671 -17.461 7.6 km 3.1 99.0 4.7 km NE of Bárðarbunga According to the wonderful Google maps almost exactly 750m horizontal separation between the quake last night and the same strength on this morning, 4,600 Metres vertical separation, which is a big distance for the strain to travel. My thought exactly

yep, very quite. Interesting the way that it spikes and quietens, overall number of quakes is well down now, will be interesting to see if we get a repeat pattern Other point is many of those quakes in the caldera last night were very shallow

It goes to show how sensitive the camera is that the car lights are soo bright. As far as Barda is concerned I vary between hope and despair. hope that it will go bang, despair that it will be catastrophic. I would rather see it go soon and (reasonably) gently that it accumulate everything and go with a huge bang. More quakes in the rift under the ice tonight

Jon is always clear that he's not qualified as a scientist, I've seen him declare it several times, I also note that he only ramps things up if scientists have said something. But yes you are right and we should consider all angles

Very noticable drop in quakes now, only 9 since this mornings 4.7

Well, it looks as if it's only just below sea level according to wiki the volcano rises to a fraction over 2,000 metres, so if it's 3,500 meters from the surface that's pretty shallow I'd assume that the deeper earthquakes only serve to transfer the stress closer to the surface. Then as other quakes happen the stress either increases or decreases until the fault can't support itself and lets go. That would then be likely to increase the pressure lower down, so we see a see saw effect, deep, shallow, less deep, shallower as the mountain settles.

Same NNE corner, shallow as well, been ugraded a smidgin and reviewed very quickly Friday 12.09.2014 09:32:56 64.677 -17.476 3.5 km 4.7 99.0 4.7 km NNE of Bárðarbunga As you say on the other quakes noticeably fewer today

The Fissures were looking very bright last night, the drop in EQ's probably means the lave is more freely flowing. The main problem with the number of earthquakes that have happened around the caldera is that the ring faults that surround the outside of the caldera have been severely weakened. Add the amount of ice sitting above (10km * 7km * .7km = 49 billion tonnes) that adds to the downward pressure due to the reduction in pressure in the magma chamber. The figures associated with all this are truly amazing

I just looked and was quite surprised how active they looked, that should mean a reduction in pressure -- OR further deflate the caldera

The screenshot shows how close to a complete circle the earthquakes over M3 have made in the last 48 hours. Following on from JonFR's comments yesterday where he said a collapse was already in progress, it would seem that it's increasing in speed. The more quakes we get the greater the chance of a catastrophic collapse. Add to that the list of quakes over 3 SO FAR today and it's not looking good

You aren't a newbie, you're an old hand now I think both are situated away from the volcano with 1 being quite a lot further away than 2. I wouldn't like to be the bloke servicing 2

Several of the bigger quakes at the cauldera are at 5km deep or less. I think Jon is right and that the cauldera will collapse, could be a slow burner but I think there's a distinct possibility of a big bang

Anyone notice how shallow the quakes are over at Katla ?

Interesting that the quakes under the ice look to be more concentrated than they were.Jonfr said on his blog that he thought an eruption had started there. I just wonder whether water ingress has cooled the lava and as a result the pressure has increased. That would put extra pressure on the outflow from BundaWhoops just seen that Pit thought of that before me

Hi Rusty, Those clouds look different and camera2 is showing nothing but shaking a lot. All looking dodgy again

US Safety limit is 5000µg/m3 but 2600 is very unpleasant UK COSHH Limits are tighter Derived No Effect Levels are only 2600 for short term exposure and 1300 for long term

will not be long before the SO2 in the lower troposphere goes at the way around the top of the world

Isn't it? I should be doing some work..... Instead I'm watching volcanic plumes

Great Catch Rusty well doneThat NASA site is a bit tasty

There now, along with another 4 minutes earlier at M3.8 Here's a question for someone. When a quake is reported at, for example, 1km depth, does that mean it's 1Km below ground level? I ask because Barda is just over 2,000m in height, so any quake reported at 1km depth could be 1km from the surface of the mountain (excluding Ice) or 1km below sea level. Anyone know?

I see that on the USGS, but nothing matching on the vedur.is site. nothing even at the same time. Strange