NorthNorfolkWeather

So place your Bets. Is the slowdown due to less resistance or less magma? I favour less magma, as the overall speed has slowed Total EQ's over the last 48 hours starting to drop a little

Interesting how most of the Activity seems to be at night. What's the moon phase at the moment? The articles posted here yesterday provided some excellent reading last evening, especially when talking of the possible interaction between the (probably) basaltic dyke magma and the cooloing Rhyolite in the Askja system. We have to hope that it doesn't go bang (even if we'd secretly want it too) a nice flow lava would do me, huge amounts of ash due to Rhyolite degassing I don't want to think about

Just looked up where Askja is as it's been mentioned a few times. That swarm is getting quite close Positions from Wikipedia Askja 1516 4974 65.03°N 16.75°W Bárðarbunga 2005 6515 64.64°N 17.56°W Swarm started @ approx 64.64N 17.15W Now at 64.95N 16.90 W Someone will have to get Google maps out to work out how far to the Askja Fissure swarm

Been upgraded to 5.7 and 6.2Km down. The quakes definitely seem to be easing off somewhat

Nothing of any size for the last few hours. But some of those tremors over 5 must have shaken things up quite a bit. This could go on months before anything substantial happens, but the longer it goes on, the more likely that when it happens it will be a noteworthy event. Interesting read about Mount St Helens posted by JP earlier, to have a pyroclastic flow almost break the speed of sound must have been incredibly frightening if you were anywhere near it. I think a phreatic eruption is the greatest concern, that would be likely to put a lot of ash into the air. In previous eruptions the degassing of the lava has caused problems, do we know if this is a heavily gassed lava? It's not something we can really check

I have to add Buzzit and Brickfielder to the "Excellent Contributors" list. The "Nature of the Beast" article is an excellent if somewhat worrying read, obviously well researched. If what the article describes happened, air travel would be "Interesting" as many routes would have to be redrawn. Aviation safety being what it is, I would expect engine maintenence to increase possibly halving the time an engine could be operational before servicing. Interesting times

Doesn't look as though much has changed overnight. Still plenty of quakes and a number over M3 in the dyke, but most reasonably deep. Number of quakes in the last 48 hours is really high almost 2,400 a few minutes ago (08:00 BST). Looks as thought the caldera is settling a bit as the magma moves Northeast, I'm still amazed by the workings of tectonics and the volumes spoken of. As far as a possible eruption is concerned, even the experts aren't sure, so we just wait and see. Thanks to all the knowledgable people that have contributed here (I'm thinking of JP and others) making is a very useful place to come to find latest details

Confirmed 5.3 , also a 5.1 just before 6 AM All the big quakes are in the same area. Would think there's something big going on there

Lots of smaller quakes since that M4.7. Interestingly the number of earthquakes in the last 48 hours continues to rise, now over 2100

The Pressure under the ice must be phenomenal, depending on where it could erupt there is between 500 and 700 metres of ice ABOVE the eruption so between 500 and 700 tonnes per square metre Incredible

Cheers John, Thanks for the info I'm most interested in Ash production. Do you know, or can you point me to some documentation about ash production from Volcanoes? I would have thought that water ingress would b much more likely to create ash than a 'dry' eruption. We all know how water reacts with (extreme) heat, there's a hell of a lot of water in that glacier

Was that the one you posted yesterday wondering whether there was already some melting? I just hope the eruption doesn't start until sometime after 4:00 tomorrow (as I'm flying home from working in Sweden then

I suppose the 2 questions have to be 1) Do we have any seismic data relating to the size of that chamber? 2) What Volumes are we talking about the the comment above says the volume is "incredible"

70 quakes at M2 or stronger between 10:15 this morning and 16:15 this afternoon. 215 quakes at M2 or stronger in the last 48 hours. So over 25% of quakes in the last 48 hours have occurred in the last 6 hours (12.5% of the time period). So as John said earlier it is ramping up

With this, a decoupled El Nino and an Easterly phase QBO, should we expect a winter that will be the opposite of last years? I.E. Cold and snowy

Thanks John, Good insight that. Good to see you posting

Excellent Post CS, huge uncertainty just 36 hours away and that's frontal rain. Stuff from the tropics always throw spanners in the works when they get North of the mid latitudes :cc_confused:

Well said CS, weather forecasting, even with super computers is incredibly difficult, even more so with showers rather than frontal rain. As an example, your old stamping ground has got wet today, areas west of me Fakenham to Lynn have been soaked, We've stayed totally dry, only about 15 minutes of sun all day, very murky, looked on several occasions that it was going to pelt down, rain?? Not a drop, but such is the nature of showers. We had a big(gish) storm here 2 nights ago, wasn't forecast ( as far as I know, I was just outside Stockholm hoping for a forecast Thunderstorm which never happened) but the family enjoyed it. Weather is weather, the people who stand in front of the cameras tell us what the models see, and when the models are wrong, so are they. I couldn't predict the weather as I'm not psychic, those that rely on technology can only report what the technology tells them. The weather in the last 3-4 months has been sufficiently "different" to make the models struggle. All the models rely on past data to predict the future, they need something similar in the past to predict the future, if its not there, any numerical model will only extrapolate what it can -- and the possinbility of getting it wrong increases. Final point, the models, as we know them, have only been about less than 10 years, all the talk of the wonderful storms of the 80's and 90's were before the models as we see them existed.

I agree with Lassie, that is some flooding, is that the A14?

So it's wrong, it just goes to show how difficult it is to get it right. I was in Sweden earlier this week and we were forecast thunderstorms Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday, didn't happen. Did happen 50km away and stretched 100km south east of that. If you look at the radar from earlier this morning, the first heavy pulse went up the North Sea, so was 75km East of where it was predicted to be It hasn't rained yet here and I don't expect it to be as heavy as predicted as I take into account our microclimate

Good selection of maps showing that Paul, illustrates it perfectly. As an aside question, does that contribute to the "Shear" we hear so much about?

Cloud quite thick here, hadn't noticed the wind direction until your post, but yes, you're right, the surface winds are from the NE, interestingly, radar shows showers heading North. Case of storms heading against the wind?

Agreed. neither should I, sun starting to break through here, ground was damp so we had something.... (Weather station isn't recording rain at the moment not sure why)

Well, been at Center Parcs Longleat since Monday, weather is (currently) just right cool enough at night to sleep warm enough during the day to walk around in d=shorts ( frightening thought I know). May go downhill tomorrow, but been a great holiday so far

Lovely here near the North Coast as well, pleasant breeze from the East, sun is really strong. Just wonder what that trough over the continent will do. It looks as though it will get close to Norfolk and Suffolk during Saturday, whether it will produce anything other than cloud, I'm not sure. Looking at the Fax chart it looks as though it disappears as the trough comes in from the West, that should produce some instability in the region