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shotski

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Posts posted by shotski

    3 Counties And East Anglia Regional Discussion Thread

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Dont they always!i used to get excited now i just wait and see.

    I think it depends on how far south this storm is as to weather we catch the cold air on its northan flank.I defo no expert just reading the model forums lol.

    I think the storm at the end of the week has been slowly down graded, as you say we could get some decent cold on the back edge as it

    passes through. For decent cold look to the new year and a scandi high developing :good:

    3 Counties And East Anglia Regional Discussion Thread

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Ok - so it looks like the possibilities are:

    1 - if the low heads through the channel then we are on the nothern side. Depending upon how much warm air is wrapped up in the mix, we could see snow, chances increasing as the low moves East and the colder air moves down. If the low is too far South we will be too far North of the main precipitation band.

    2 - If the low moves more on a more northerly tack (say exiting over the Wash), then this would put us in the windier section with winds southerly, and then backing West eventually Northerly.

    The system derives its energy from the difference between the temperatures (and therefore relative humidity) over the western Atlantic where it will form. The more energy in the system the more precipitation and wind, but also the further north its track will be.

    What Low ? Have you seen the latest ECM run ?

    Model Output Discussion - 28th November - 4th December

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    The strong PV spinning speedily round an Arctic low isn't going to give you northerlies, you need pressure to rise there, maybe from a warming of the stratosphere for which there's a chance in the new year. A strong PV otherwise means you might have to rely on something coming from the east.

    Please correct me if my self taught understanding of this is astray!

    I didn't say it would give you northerlies, I was trying to make the point that with so much bottled up cold any POTENTIAL northerly

    would be a good one. I was refering to a topler.

    Model Output Discussion - 28th November - 4th December

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by shotski

    A cold PV is not necessarily terrible for cold, just as a warm PV does not necessarily does not necessarily bring strong and prolonged cold? Am I right in saying that?

    I think the strenght of the polar vortex is not ideal for any northern blocking to form. But probably good news for the ice pack and any potential northerly's. Could someone please post the 850 temp charts for the states.

    Mild Weather

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    The cold can't be in two places at once, last November/December it was our turn while eastern europe was exceptionaly mild.

    This year the cold is about to cover Russia and eastern parts and may be there for some time, I think we may have to look east

    this year for any real cold conditions.

    Model Output Discussion

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    I prefer his posts to the one-line "terrible run" or similar kind of posts, or worse, deliberately trying to wind up people.

    At least he is taking a view and backing it up with evidence.. even if it is often in FI.

    I really don't have a problem with his posts.

    Agree :rolleyes:

    Model Output Discussion

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Loving the Cape/LI charts for early next week.

    This is easily the best Cape/LI chart I've seen in my life. Bloody hell it could be good on Monday and Tuesday...

    I'm going to Leicester next week and it looks like my home county of Hertfordshire might do very well from this. Will be keeping an eye on this over the weekend.

    Would it be possible to explain exactly what the above charts are showing, I gather it is storm potential but how does it work ?????

    The 3 Counties And East Anglia Spring Weather Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    I enjoy the snow and cold but working on a roof today with freezing rain in my face at 3 degrees was no fun :cold:

    For me this winter (first half) was one I will remember for a very long time, I cant remember in my lifetime temperatures

    so low for so long.

    In a way it was a blessing we had a mild second half of winter as the wildlife was really starting to suffer and another

    freeze could have been a disaster, its good now to see the flowers coming up and the birds starting to build their nests.

    Have a good summer everyone and see you all next year :cray:

    Shotski

    The 3 Counties And East Anglia Spring Weather Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    I'm going to stick my neck out here with a mad forecast, The Greeny high will make a return for the beggining of March breaking the lowest temp record for that month

    in the uk.

    Heavy snow for the southeast (except Cambridgeshire :lol: ) and the winter will go out with a Bang :bomb:

    Posted this a few days back, didn't realise at the time that the record lowest temp for March was -21.1 in 1947 :shok:

    just shows its never to late for snow.

    Noticed towards the end of the GFS the ridge in the atlantic moves closer to Greenland :good::cold:

    The 3 Counties And East Anglia Spring Weather Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Well I can safely say winter is over, with some mild-very mild temperatures possible towards the end of next week. That's not to say we can't get cold snaps in March and April, which can give impressive cloudscapes and huge temperature variation!

    Overall last winter was a lot better than this one passed, only 3cm has fallen here during this winter (and a covering at the end of November) though the cold was very impressive and December and probably will not be repeated for many years. Snowfall was poor this winter, compared to last winter which gave 15cm in December, about 8cm in January and about another 8cm in February. It's very disappointing how this winter collapsed after early January, but it is the British weather were are all talking about!

    Roll on Spring and hopefully a decent variety of weather! :drinks:

    I'm going to stick my neck out here with a mad forecast, The Greeny high will make a return for the beggining of March breaking the lowest temp record for that month

    in the uk.

    Heavy snow for the southeast (except Cambridgeshire :lol: ) and the winter will go out with a Bang :bomb:

    The 3 Counties And East Anglia Spring Weather Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    This morning the Model Output place was telling us we would be having an early Spring by next week, 6 hours later and the same people are telling us we will be having freezing temperatures and snow. Maybe tomorrow we could be looking forward to a plague of locusts.

    Fair point :unsure: some of the members on there react to each run, you soon know who you can trust and he at the moment is keeping stum

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