[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018]

We’ll definitely get snow this year, somewhere in the UK. I’m 100% sure

[The Hunt for Cold continues 02/01/19]

51 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The JMA is cat litter . 

It verifies similar to the NAVGEM at day 6 . 

Current rankings at day 6 using anomaly correlation for 12 hrs runs .

ECM 0.878

UKMO 0.855

FV3  GFS para 0.840

GEM 0.838

GFS 0.824

JMA 0.813

NAVGEM 0.812

We’re talking about the JMA monthly prediction long range model ? I’ve definitely herd it talked  of highly in here in the past. Have you got a link for your verification stats please. 

How can you possibly compare the two when as far as I can see the Icon doesn’t do a one month anomaly prediction ? 

[The Hunt for Cold continues 02/01/19]

11 minutes ago, KTtom said:

The only trouble I find with the JMA charts is I can never find the UK !

Yes there not the best, turn your phone upside down and we’re just below the orange blob

[The Hunt for Cold continues 02/01/19]

This is interesting from JMA, which I believe has very good verification stats. Week 2 shows a slight return to Zonal followed by this very strong anomaly for weeks 3-4. This could get very messy at the end of the month ?

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018]

ECM ends up a bit of a car crash but certainly no sign of the Atlantic coming through. I’m not sure the likes of Darren Bett have covered themselves in glory unless they know something we don’t of course

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018]

38 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

it was cold in the shades today shotski

Positively cool in the shades

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018]

I definitely think some people need to take some time off model watching. It’s a painful read in there

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018]

I’m still hoping that the 3rd or 4th week of Jan we could get our first frost and then maybe some fog and cold drizzle when the SSW impacts early Feb. Fingers crossed  

[Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas]

19 minutes ago, mulzy said:

HNY cold weather nerds!

Dont want to put a dampener on things but the ext EPS are rather underwhelming.  No HLB in our sector just troughing to the north and north east. @bluearmy - what’s your take?

All looks good to around T-192 but then literally collapses and is replaced with troughing. No HLB at all in the later stages. 

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018]

9 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

they probably think it's spring

Don’t you normally have a winter in between

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018]

Happy new year everyone, let the new year be good for all

Treated the frogs & newts to a total pond refurb the last couple of days in time for when the cold weather arrives. I was amazed by how many frogs were still active when I was clearing the old pond, they may need to find a hibernation spot in the not too distant future ?

[Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas]

Just for fun I’ll chuck this in here, probably already been discussed but seems out of kilter with what we would expect mid month. 

[Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas]

6 minutes ago, IDO said:

Hopefully, this trend over the pole is maintained moving forward:

Nice to see this develop in the op.

Next sharper Atlantic Ridge, please!

Absolutely IDO, just a continuation of what the EPS were showing this morning. A massive step forwards and possibly a New Years treat coming from the 12z ECM

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018]

There’s a lot of coffee smelling going on at the moment.

[Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas]

38 minutes ago, Stonethecrows said:

Years ago people said global warming was a fad and look where we are now!! besides I think reminding everyone that a SSW doesn't always guarantee cold and snow is far more tedious as even the most novice of us are fully aware of that.

The cold is there, unfortunately for us it’s not here, yet! 

Cold weather geeks in Greece must pray for a UK high in winter like we do a greeny high LOL. Hopefully next time round the cards will fall for us in the uk. 

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018]

1 hour ago, snowrye said:

I think we all could do with some decent cold and a prolonged snowy outlook,seems to be getting increasingly difficult 

We can’t have the best of both worlds. 

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018]

41 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

I think future Christmases will see temperatures of 20c and most people will be having bbq's instead of roasts and sitting outside instead of in. Being attacked by wasps and mosquitos will become a common hazard and by smarch, it will be 33c. August will hit 40c and the temps at night won't fall below 30c. Hope everyone has a decent fan for the future.

Did you not get what you want for Christmas

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018]

1 hour ago, clark3r said:

Winters seem to be getting milder and milder. Our winter will come end of Feb or march when the sun will melt any snow quickly. Head to north Canada next Christmas if you want a white xmas. My dad said he many white Christmas when he was young. Really think global warming is taking affect here in winter. 

Sadly I think your correct but that’s not to say we can’t still get some decent cold weather and I’m still expecting it from mid Jan onwards. As the planet warms the jet stream will behave wildly and scupper any chances of prolonged HLB but when you do get a cold shot it will be cold ? 

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018]

5 hours ago, essexweather said:

Temperature fell to 0.7C around 10PM, now up to 4.9C.

Avoiding the fog here tonight, but no doubt will return tomorrow night with lighter winds.

Hi Essex weather

any updates on what the latest Glosea is showing for mid January ? Thanks  

[Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas]

Extended EPS look pretty naff to me out to 9th Jan, didn’t bother looking any further. Looks flat & zonal unfortunately

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018]

Cold to the left of me, cold to the right , here I am stuck in the middle with you Merry Christmas All. 

 

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018]

1 hour ago, lassie23 said:

October Fog Index 6 fancy pants weather models 0

To be fair the weather models have  never shown any real deep cold, it’s only peoples interpretation of them that has. 

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018]

Whisper it quietly but all the output looks pretty dier at the moment. If it wasn’t for the upcoming SSW to hang on to things would be at an all time low . Greece & the balkans once again look set to go into the big freeze. 

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018]

5 hours ago, Froze were the Days said:

Utterly miserable weather! compounded by losing my father yesterday in the early hours...

Very sorry to hear this sad news. ❣ 

[Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas]

45 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

No comfort for cold lovers with the 500 mb anomaly charts, all 3 I use show an upper ridge with the centre of Gravity of the +ve heights showing pretty much over the UK.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/500mb.php

and similar of the NOAA 81-4.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

The MJO is in 5 and predicted (GFS) to move to 6 with a reasonable position away from the centre.

Six corresponds to nothing helpful from a cold perspective!

Depends on what you call cold John, I’d imagine for the southeast and central quadrant there could be some severe frosts with sub zero temperatures.