[Cold hunt - models and chat]

5 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

There's absolutely zilch in the modelling at the moment to suggest a cool February, let alone a cold one. If you can show me some concrete signs of a cold February (other than the Metoffice further outlook which has been singing the same song since late December), then I might take notice.

As of now we have everything trending the wrong way for any deep/prolonged cold. Whether you chose to accept this or not is completely on you. Those EPS are pretty damning.

I'll also turn the tables on you here- for all of your positive comments over the past 8 weeks or so, what have we actually seen for it? I'll tell you...1 solitary day of falling snow falling in the form of showers!

Concrete proof that hope casting DOES NOT work

You was confident yourself of a scandi high a week or so ago was you not ? Like you say hope casting does not work. 

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018]

16 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

first week of feb looks like the proper stuff

This time.........you could be on the money

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018]

Thought I had stumbled into the Mod thread, very negative in here !! Come on guys snow on the way Tuesday & Thursday and then possibly at the weekend. The hunt for cold is over. 

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

5 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

And the 12z eps firms up on that push of the Azores ridge days 8/10 ....awaiting the spreads to see the likely pattern 

But it looks a short lived feature with positive anomaly over Scandinavia later on. 

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

39 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Too many are treating the latest Ecm run longer term as gospel but there is a lot of uncertainty..however, there is certainty that it will be turning colder from the North during Sunday and then progressively colder still on Mon / Tues into next midweek! 

Absolutely, the EPS extended look great for cold & snow. 

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018]

Can confirm nothing falling from the sky. Unfortunately looks like it’s evaporating before it hits the ground

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018]

34 minutes ago, tinybill said:

-5  outside  out  side  radar saying  showers  incoming  from the west   if the radar right!!

Yes just saw that, could deliver a rush hour surprise

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018]

Interesting very interesting...

 

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018]

Should we call time on this SSW and accept that it didn’t affect the trop in the way we was hoping for hopefully something else will pop up in Feb.

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

28 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

I'm glad I was born in 1957 and not 2057...In winter 2119, Netweather will have a thread dedicated to searching for days with maxes below 10C! 

Frost will be the new snow Ed

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018]

2 minutes ago, yamkin said:

JMA - Japanese Model Is Also Going For The Very Cold Air Over UK/Ireland 

As are the extended EPS. 

Whatever way you look at it , it’s going cold for the foreseeable ?

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018]

9 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

Just checking, so now Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday, are not cold with snow potential?

 

Oh definitely some snow potentially for this week but not favourable for lower ground or the south east. I was talking about more the potential easterly. 

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018]

2 minutes ago, Matty J said:

I often wish we could go back to a day before the likes of these Netweather forums and being able to view charts etc.

In a matter of hours we’ve gone from a possible Narnia event to basically miserable winter dross and most posters in the MOD thread wanting to top themselves

I’ve lost count of the amount of times the models have shown epic wintryness only for us to end up with absolutely nothing, I’m fed up with the constant disappointments

And what makes it worse is it’s the same places that get the cold & snow again. I’m still not convinced this is over, the fat lady hasn’t sung. 

[Model output discussion - cold proper on the way?]

2 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

I don't. 

I've been here plenty of times when the charts have been looking great. I was actually in here earlier to say how good the 0z GFS looked, before everything else went wrong. 

Maybe if you notice me when it goes wrong, I'm good at forecasting the fails??? 

But that wouldn’t be hard as they all fail

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018]

4 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

Temp 3.3 dp 0.2 no ppn about, still have sun and patchy high cloud. Much better day, then I expected.

Wow, what a difference 24 hours makes Models all over the place at the moment but things have certainly tonned down a bit. 

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 01/12/2018 Onwards]

21 minutes ago, divadee said:

Well woke up to a temp of a balmy 5.2c in central Bournemouth. I was expecting slightly colder. 

Hold tight and next week should deliver ? fingers crossed  

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018]

7 hours ago, James Gold said:

Well for the purposes of ramping, the MOD thread, yes sometimes prone to exaggeration, is coming out with fantastic lines for our region about this 18z GFS. My favourite is “the SE is getting clobbered”

Yep take it all with a large pinch of salt. It’s going to get cold possibly very cold and we may get some snow but details of reliable snow full I would put down to about 12 hours tops. If anyone says we’re going to get a foot of snow next Thursday on the Mad thread it’s just for fun. Also stick to John Holmes and the anomaly charts for your most realistic view. ?

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

13 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

cannot see snow this Sat, maybe 26th? as extended forecast? as EC shows

This could be what their referring to 

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018]

Don’t worry it’s only a small shower. Nothing yet to suggest the Thames freezing over ?

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018]

And we have snow ️

 

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018]

8 minutes ago, TomSE12 said:

Quote:

"I’m not sure I can TIKKA this seriously !"  

Just wanted to reply to this comment made by SHOTSKI, back on 5th January, about my conversation with Ian Currie.

I've known Mr.Currie, for a few years now and I really don't think he's ROGAN JOSHing us!! 

Ian became interested in Meteorology after having many ALOO CHAAT'S with his GARLIC NAAN. She told him many wondrous tales of past epic Winters. I really hope he's called this evolution to cold correctly. Although the Forecast Models may get themselves into a bit of a LIME PICKLE, trying to adjust to the SSW. I really hope it doesn't all go pear-shaped. Or as Johnny Nash sang back in 1975, it could all end with "Tears on my PILAU". Let's hope we have a smooth transition to cold now and we can count down the clock until we reach to, just a day out (t24). Or as Gene CHUTNEY sang back in 1963. we'd only be "24 hours from TILDA(rice)". If this cold weather doesn't come to fruition Mr.Currie could then end up with EGG FRIED RICE, all over his face!!

Regards,

Tom.  

Hopefully his forecast will come true and we’ll all have winter Naania 

Love your updates as ever

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018]

1 hour ago, TomSE12 said:

Just had a really long and interesting chat with local Meteorologist Ian Currie. About to have my dinner and will post up some of his thoughts afterwards. 

Regards,

Tom.  

Come on Tom!!!

you must have finished desert by now

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

9 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I would like to see the ECM mean at 300 and 360 before i comment on whether i like the 240 chart!

 

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

Fear not guys

the ensemble members are still rock solid

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

4 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

It wasn’t so good last week .... so now all the LR models are in a similar place for feb

CFS

JMA

EC46

glosea (probably)

 

It was because I posted it on here. Take a look back