Mr Frost

Quite a few coldies clinging onto a very mediocre Met Office outlook - chance of frost, wintry precipitation over Northern high ground during a Winter month? Is that how low our bar is nowadays? I much preferred the days of mouth watering outlooks from them - February 2019 for example... Look how that turned out... As @LRD said it is nice to see them mention cold/wintry in the outlook - gives some folk a wee bit of hope at least. Tell you what though...it is very mild out there today! Very impressive for mid November. Quite a shock to the system when Thursday arrives - not for long of course.

I would agree with that - feeling quite positive about cold/snow chances for NW UK in December. (I am sure we all feel like that about our own location - hopefully! ) Latest ECM monthly temperature (T2m) Anomalies. Weekly breakdown below: 30/11 to 06/12 07/12 to 13/12 14//12 to 20/12 21/12 to 27/12 As ever subject to change as we all know. Just caught up with the thread and you can sense that whiff of desperation in the search for any cold/wintry chart - fair enough though after the very poor Winter last year! I just hope the members who are on a daily rollercoaster have some energy left come Meteorological Winter. All the best to you all.

I know most of us in here are looking for cold/wintry charts but Tuesday is looking very mild! We could see 15C registered in Scotland, England, Ireland, Northern Ireland and Wales! Pretty impressive for mid November - if it actually becomes reality. Dare I say that will feel quite pleasant in any sunshine. Wee bit of rain about - Western Scotland getting the worst of it. Always nice to see a bit of interesting weather - no matter what type it is. I shall see myself out now and return to my cold/snowy ways going forward. All the best!

Evening all As other have said - very brief cold blast incoming! (Very surprising/sudden after viewing the charts a few days ago) Window for low level snowfall opportunity Thursday AM through to the early hours of Friday AM. Cairngorms snowing on and off Wednesday night through to Saturday at least - lovely snowy scenes on the webcams during that period. Few snapshots from the latest UKV - subject to change at this range of course. Thursday 3:00 Precipitation type - lovely stuff there for the Cairngorms as mentioned. 09:00 0C Isotherm: Snowfall expected at quite low levels. (Even sea level in the heaviest showers) 12:00 528 Dam line over most of Scotland: 12:00 Precipitation type - Northern Scotland looking good. Throughout the hours after this still the risk of snow showers - NE Scotland especially. Definitely a big chance of @Northern Strath @Ravelin and a few others seeing a few snowflakes. If these showers push further South then obviously @shuggee could get lucky also. (I know many of you live on high ground - just naming the folk that live on very high ground from memory! ) So all the ingredients are there at the moment and a nice wee wintry bonus before the official start of Meteorological Winter. All the best to you all.

Morning all I think we all knew the outcome of this brief cold blast next Thursday through Friday! Few snapshots this morning from the latest UKV for the days above - subject to change at this range. If you live in that area covered by the 528 dam line you are in with a chance of seeing a snowflake at least - down to quite low levels. With regards to mountains...Cairngorms are in for a pasting. Most likely on and off snowfall Thursday through to Saturday. Other areas at risk of some sleet/snow showers in this flow of course high ground of Northern Ireland/parts of Ireland, Pennines, Lake District, Yorkshire Dales and Snowdonia of course. Cold night for the North - predicted temperatures for Friday 03:00. Friday the coldest day of the week for the UK and Ireland. (milder Saturday) So nothing too exciting for the majority of us but it is still only November - Winter is yet to begin of course. I don’t give a monkeys what any long range outlook/model forecasts for this Winter - whether that be above average, average or below...what will be...will be! I always enjoy the chase no matter what the season is and remain forever hopeful that we all get whatever weather we crave. (Mild, cold, snow, named storm, thunderstorms, frost, fog, kitchen sink ect ect) Have a good Sunday everyone!

ECM 192: North: South: Imagine the scenes! That is not a bad effort from the ECM tonight - more chance of England beating Scotland at the Euro’s next Summer but that is lovely to look at!

ECM monthly temperature (T2m) Anomalies was all over it on 26th October. It has been up and down since but the signal has always been very close to our shores for a below average spell. We just have to remember it has not actually happened yet. After the abysmal Winter of 2019/20 it is just nice to see numerous different models/charts/outlooks show some seasonal weather! My head says NW/N toppler scenario with snowfall on the higher hills/mountains, wintry showers on low ground for the North and a few frosts down South. Heart says one foot of settling snow for us all. One thing is guaranteed - Daily Express will be announcing a Northerly snow bomb/polar vortex exploding blizzard on a collision with the UK and Ireland for the end of November.

Morning all Some very impressive snow depth charts on the ECM run this morning - think it has been partying overnight with all us Scotland fans... Not a chance of that happening but you love to see it! Mountains forecast is a bit meh... Planning Outlook http://mwis.org.uk//icon/favicon-128.png Home Page MWIS.ORG.UK Unsettled through the weekend into next week as areas of low pressure and fronts move across Britain from the Atlantic. Frequent rain, low cloud and gales. Considerable rainfall totals on most western mountains. In the Scottish Highlands, there will be a series of freeze thaw cycles on the Munros, but most fresh lying snow will be fairly transient. Elsewhere, higher mountains only briefly below freezing point. UKMO 144 chart would agree with that: (Not far off tapping into those proper cold uppers of course) First fortnight of December for our first lowland snowfall? Would be lovely!

What’s going on here!? This ECM must be an outlier @mb018538 Tell you what mate if that becomes reality for that date (19/11) I will buy you a three month Netweather extra full subscription and that’s a promise.

I don’t see it? Only in the realms of fantasy on the GFS. It looks mild to start and then trending to average in the South next week and drier than average? UKMO charts I posted previously also look decent for the South right out to the 18th. (That’s as far as it goes) If anything it looks quite pleasant and high pressure won’t be far away from Southern England - looks rather beign/quiet down there for all of next week. Even further North Manchester looks decent. London: If I lived down there I wouldn’t be expecting the Atlantic to roar though until at least the very end of November/start of December. We shall see of course! Edit: @mb018538 (post below) I will stick with what I said/charts I posted after seeing that BBC outlook! Chris Fawkes had absolutely no confidence in that forecast!

This should be pinned to the top of this thread for the whole Winter season - save us all repeating it week in/week out. Latest UKMO brings us more mild/mundane weather - temperatures dropping to more normal values later next week. UKMO 96,120 and 144: Iceland looks as though it’s heading into the freezer...why can’t we have a member on here who lives there!? Instead we are stuck with our friend @jules216 from snowless Slovakia! (Just joking of course mate!) UK and Ireland wise - isn’t it great to be looking ahead to the official start of Meteorological Winter with at least a risk of cold/wintry weather arriving? Have a good night everyone!

Not sure if these have been posted already but here are the ECM Seasonal Temperature (T2m) Anomalies issued on 01/11. December: January: February: With regards to the rest of November it is basically mild all the way - slightly above to average in the final week. (Good to see the temperatures dropping) During the first two weeks of December increasing signal for our first wintry blast from the NW/N - wintry showers low levels/snow over the mountains at some stage! Three questions are...will this be reserved for NW UK? Will this be a one/two day toppler and most important...will any of these charts/what I have described actually become reality!? It is approaching that exciting time - Winter is just around the corner now! I like to just take it each day/week at a time - silly to write off any season of the year before it has even started.

At least one hundred times for me since joining the forum back in January 2009. This was the day ten chart from the run on 31/10 for today’s date... Now here is today’s actual chart... There is more chance of me going for a socially distanced pint with the ghost of Robert the Bruce and a living Tyrannosaurus Rex than these charts at such a range becoming reality. Great to look at though and I would love to see tonight’s chart (as posted above by @Uncertainy- great first post) actually happen!

Morning Hope you are all well! Well the colder than average signal (previous update) for the start of December has vanished for us... Latest ECM monthly temperature (T2m) Anomalies: Weekly breakdown for December: (This run ends at 20/12) 30/11 to 06/12: 07/12 to 13/12: Best chance for our first wintry blast - all eyes to the NW/N. 14/12 to 20/12: And now back to November...basically continues the mild theme and then temperatures trend slightly above to average for the final week - pretty boring eh? Monthly rain Anomalies for the second half of this month: 16/11 to 22/11: 23/11 to 29/11 As ever don’t take these charts too seriously - subject to change of course. All the best to you all.

Morning all Ah how I would love to live at the top of a mountain...Cairngorms/Glencoe my ideal location. Cairngorm mountain currently: Live Webcams - Cairngorm Mountain WWW.CAIRNGORMMOUNTAIN.CO.UK Discover our wide range of on-mountain webcams, to help plan your slope-side... Glencoe: Webcams - Glencoe Mountain Resort WWW.GLENCOEMOUNTAIN.CO.UK Click to refresh the page Click a thumbnail to view larger webcam view or scroll down for slideshow. Alas I am sea level dweller and it is currently 7C and cloudy after a wet start! All the best to you all!

Morning all! Hope you are all well. First of all...what can we say about October!? Very wet and sunshine was in short supply for many of us. Mean temperature, Rainfall amount and Sunshine duration against the 1981-2010 Anomaly. Beautiful GFS in the latter stages as posted above but as @mb018538 mentioned...sadly a huge outlier. With regards to November there has been a quick switch to a mild outlook on the ECM monthly temperature (T2m) Anomalies: Weekly breakdown below: 09/11 to 15/11 (Anyone for a spot of sunbathing? ) 16/11 to 22/11 23/11 to 29/11 So cooling off in the final week of November and then... 30/11 to 06/12 07/12 to 13/12: Still on course for a cold start to December which is great to see - if anything wintry arrives before then...that would be great also! As ever take the above charts with a very large pinch of salt - subject to change of course! (As seen by the previous update!) Current weather...lovely few days ahead for many of us with plenty of sunshine and air/ground frosts about. I shall see you all again when we are snowed in during the first fortnight of December! All the best to you all!

Morning all! Hope you are all well! Lovely end to the latest ECM run as posted/mentioned above. Latest ECM monthly temperature (T2m) Anomalies: 02/11 to 06/12. Weekly breakdown below: 02/11 to 08/11 09/11 to 15/11 16/11 to 22/11 23/11 to 29/11 30/11 to 06/12 (My personal favourite) Signal there for a below average November and a cold start to December! Met Office outlook also mentions below average temperatures in November... Are we on the cusp of a cold spell in November and December? Or are these long range outlooks/models absolute cannon fodder? Interesting viewing at least and hope from a seasonal Autumn/Winter lover perspective. All the best to you all!

Sunrise was very special across Scotland this morning! Anyone in here manage to capture it? I was fast asleep!

I see this thread is as positive as ever! Interesting thoughts from everyone - we still have another five weeks of Autumn to get through so no excitement/doom from me at this early stage. Nothing to worry about until the end of November at least - model outlooks are pure cannon fodder at this range. Good for discussion though of course. I understand the frustration - last Winter was pathetic from a cold/snow point of view! Cant be any worse this Winter...can it!? Just relax and enjoy the snowy scenes from the home of Santa Claus - Rovaniemi (Lapland) Finland. All together now...jingle bells...jingle bells... Have a good weekend everyone - all the best to you all!

Morning all Weather is a bit crap for us - summed up nicely by everyone above! It is that time of the year again at the home of Santa Claus! Rovaniemi, Lapland, Finland Not a bad outlook either: Hopefully only a month or two until we are all enjoying those same scenes above!

Morning all Hope you are all well. I wonder if we are going to see a repeat of last October and November with two below average months in Autumn. 2019: Current outlook gives us a decent chance. Latest ECM updated monthly temperature (T2m) Anomalies: 26/10 to 01/11 Outlook for November: Monthly temperature (T2m) Anomalies: 02/11 to 28/11. Weekly breakdown: Looks a fairly dry month as well for the majority of the UK and Ireland - snapshot for 23/11 to 29/11: Link below to all the above charts: https://effis.jrc.ec.europa.eu/applications/monthly-forecast/ As others have said above - looks promising if sunshine, fog, frost and cool days are what you look for in November! Personally I will take a repeat of last November - most of the month delivered all those things above! Current outlook up here - standard October stuff. I certainly agree with many other members across the forum - absolute borefest of a month so far! Give me a named storm or some lovely sunny and frosty weather at this time of year. All the best to you all.

Fifteen minutes drive from there mate! https://www.scandinavian-village.co.uk With regards to Winter 2020/21 the ECM seasonal forecast (updated every month) for December is looking decent for us! Greenland High signal/vibes there... Temperature: Precipitation: As ever subject to change at this range - nice to look at though. If I had to pick/choose a cold/snowy spell in a Winter month - December would be the one! Current weather - sunshine, odd light shower blowing through and a temperature of 12C.

Evening all! New forum layout and a new Scottish thread!? Surely a sign of a cold and snowy Winter ahead! Cloudy morning here then sunshine...light shower arrived at sunset. Ah to live in Northern Scandinavia...lovely early blast of Winter for them. UKMO 120 and 144: (18/19th October) Interesting Met Office outlook: Wednesday 28 Oct -Wednesday 11 Nov Confidence becomes very low towards the end of the month. However, the generally unsettled, wet and windy weather is expected to continue through the end October. Currently a north westerly flow is expected, thus any showers or longer spells of rain are expected to be most prevalent in the west or north west, with showers increasingly likely to become wintery over higher ground. Towards the end of the period there is perhaps a greater chance that periods of more settled weather will occur. Temperatures will initially be around normal but will likely trend towards slightly below normal near November, as a result expect overnight frost and fog to become more likely in any settled spells with fog being very slow to clear. Updated: 16:00 (UTC+1) on Tue 13 Oct 2020 That would be a good start to November if it becomes reality! All the best to you all.

@Kirkcaldy Weather as long as those showers are of the thundery variety! Plenty of sunshine here today and the odd light shower - most of the action passing to my North. Working from home now for the remainder of the year - hopefully some interesting weather to look out the window at during work hours! November/December snowfall would be perfect.

Morning all Sunshine/showers here this morning - risk of hail/thunder. (Same again tomorrow) Current temperature 10C. Wee ramp from Sean Batty this morning... Last November was one of my all time favourite Autumn months... Latest ECM total accumulated rainfall up to 18/10: Not too bad for most: Outlook at the moment is pretty decent: UKMO 144: ECM 240: Cool days, plenty of sunshine, showers, risk of frost/fog. Cold up on the mountains: https://mwis.org.uk Planning Outlook Chilly into the weekend and beyond as north to northwesterly winds prevail. Higher mountains in Scotland near or below freezing for several days. Frost some nights in valleys and glens. Changeable conditions, with showers of hail or sometimes snow on the Munros. Away from showers, the air very clear and cloud breaking to higher tops. Winds varied, occasionally up to gale force giving significant chill factor. Pressure starts to build from the west, although it may be midweek before this extends widely across Britain. All the best to you all.