Mr Frost

Ah go on then...let’s add some Scottish mountain snowfall to the above! UKMO 120: https://mwis.org.uk Planning Outlook: After a severe day due to severe upland gales and rain widely on Friday, the weekend will be showery as winds turn westerly. The rain will be frequent on some western mountains. Cloud will continue to shroud most mountains, particularly on Saturday. On Sunday showers will be of snow on highest Scottish summits. Next week, further bouts of rain and occasionally strong winds and overall colder than average. All the best everyone!

Evening all Hope everyone is well! Lots going on weather wise in the short-term! Tomorrow looks soggy in the South - good drink for the gardens that need it! Wednesday 06:00, 12:00 and 15:00 Not bad at all in the North - toasty 22C and sunny spells for me. Wednesday 15:00 Then as @January Snowstorm mentioned above - Storm Ellen arrives overnight! Big time gusts expected - wild Summer weather! Wednesday 22:00, Thursday 00:00 and Thursday 02:00 If you are in that zone and a lover of extreme weather - enjoy! August has been a bonkers month for heat, thunderstorms and now wind - fitting way to end Meteorological Summer. All the best to you all.

Evening all! Hope everyone is well! Pretty stormy up here at times in the last twenty four hours - unfortunately for me...not in the West of Scotland! (SW has had its moments) UKV gives Heathrow a 35C tomorrow and 31C on Thursday - exceptional spell of weather down in the SE! Tomorrow 12:00, 13;00 and 14:00 Thursday 15:00 and 18:00 Wonderful and very interesting Summer weather for many of our members! 25C here tomorrow with plenty of sunshine. All the best to you all! Edit: Yes @Man With Beard (post below) tomorrow they show thunderstorms/downpours breaking out early afternoon. As we all know take any cloud cover/precipitation charts as this stage just for fun. Cheers!

Good stuff for our members in the North and East! (Minus the flooding risk of course!) @Stormeh take yer pick from one of those places for storm chasing tonight!

That’s the really annoying thing - love watching the convection building (convective clouds) and of course cumulonimbus approaching surrounded by blue sky! Convective weather mentioned a swathe of Scotland at risk of elevated thunderstorms overnight in his forecast... That looks pretty decent! If it actually happens of course! @Ross B Yes it’s game on now the warnings have been cancelled! As ever...we shall see what happens! Interesting day/night ahead. Bring back Summer 2019:

I love how the areas outside the warning got the thunder/lightning earlier. Can’t see much happening in the West today - SE/E/NE have a chance later. As always with thunderstorm forecasts though... All the best! Edit: Convective weather forecast for today: Convective Weather WWW.CONVECTIVEWEATHER.CO.UK Forecasting thunderstorms and severe convective weather across the British Isles and Ireland for up to the next 5 days. Scottish highlights: A few isolated elevated thunderstorms will be possible E Scotland and E England during Tuesday daytime. An increase in thunderstorm coverage, primarily elevated, is expected from Cumbria northwards across a swathe of Scotland during Tuesday night. Explosive deep convection could evolve by late afternoon and more especially into the evening hours almost anywhere in England, Wales and southern Scotland. Getting excited again after reading all that!

Main action still coming through later - roughly between midnight and 04:00! (Delayed a bit from earlier outlook) Few snapshots from the 12z run earlier: As ever with thunderstorm forecasting - might all vanish or be in a totally different location when these times arrive! Worth a wee look at these though. I think it’s just a question of will it be thundery rain, thunderstorms galore or bog standard rainfall!? And of course...can we stay awake!? Real risk of some torrential downpours at times - hopefully no flooding issues! Interesting radar watching later tonight! All the best.

Yes - fell asleep just before the last two overnight thunderstorm events to my SW/W! Not happening this time! Better prepared. Daytime wise has been slim pickings around these parts this Summer so far! Met Office current warning: As you say it’s all about the old radar/sat/sky watching now. Models still flapping about for tonight - could be further West, East or not even happen at all! The joy of thunderstorms! Lively down South at the moment: Best of luck everyone - hopefully we see some action! (Those who want storms of course) All the best.

Latest UKV 15z: Few snapshots for tomorrow: Recurring theme at the moment - think this model has a Wales/NW England bias.

UKV 12z run from earlier:

This has just popped up for tomorrow. Please let it become reality! Issued: 10:50 (UTC+1) on Sun 9 Aug 2020 Areas of thunderstorms are increasingly likely to develop over the the UK during Monday and move north or north-westwards to affect parts of Scotland and Northern Ireland through the afternoon and evening. Whilst the most intense thunderstorms, in some instances associated with large hail, will most probably be those triggered by the high temperatures of the day over England and Wales, other areas of storms producing heavy rainfall, frequent lightning and strong gusty winds could move north to affect Scotland and Northern Ireland during the afternoon and evening. Where the storms occur, rainfall totals of 30-40 mm could fall in an hour, with some locations potentially receiving 60-80 mm in 3 hours, although these will be fairly isolated.

Morning all Lovely day yesterday - sunny and a high of 21C. (Same expected today) Sunset last night. Risk of a few isolated showers/thunderstorms creeping into Southern Scotland overnight. Models/charts flapping about as usual with regards to further ahead but a few folk in here would bank these! Monday early afternoon: Monday night: Tuesday early morning: All the above subject to change of course - next run will no doubt be completely different. Good to see the risk is there though! Exciting week coming up and plenty of nice weather about - not bad at all. All the best. Edit: Issued: 10:50 (UTC+1) on Sun 9 Aug 2020 Areas of thunderstorms are increasingly likely to develop over the the UK during Monday and move north or north-westwards to affect parts of Scotland and Northern Ireland through the afternoon and evening. Whilst the most intense thunderstorms, in some instances associated with large hail, will most probably be those triggered by the high temperatures of the day over England and Wales, other areas of storms producing heavy rainfall, frequent lightning and strong gusty winds could move north to affect Scotland and Northern Ireland during the afternoon and evening. Where the storms occur, rainfall totals of 30-40 mm could fall in an hour, with some locations potentially receiving 60-80 mm in 3 hours, although these will be fairly isolated.

Morning all UKV also keeps the heat going through Wednesday and Thursday - subject to change. Big excitement for me this coming week is the thunderstorms risk - severe in places. (UK and Ireland) Sunshine/warmth/heat/thunderstorms...that’s what Summer is all about for many of us. Have a good day everyone.

Morning all UKV 03z highlights this morning... As ever...just for fun at this range. Back to the current timeframe - latest from @staplehurst for today. Convective Weather WWW.CONVECTIVEWEATHER.CO.UK Forecasting thunderstorms and severe convective weather across the British Isles and Ireland for up to the next 5 days.

Indeed - a load of Betty Swollocks from the usual vibe assassin’s/buzz killingtons in here. The hint is in the title of the thread and there are thunderstorm warnings out for the UK on three separate days next week. Many folk enjoy the build up by looking at charts/models. (Myself included) If people are daft enough to believe charts will verify at this range let them get on with it! I am sure everyone in here is a big boy/girl and can think/read/post for themselves - no-one needs lectured about what to do or not to do with regards to posting/viewing charts. Looking forward to viewing this thread over the next five/seven days - should be entertaining. All the best to you all and let’s hope next week delivers the thunderstorm goods for many of us! Cheers.

Morning all Not the old Heathrow/Kew Gardens rubbish again! Every single Summer without fail - tick that one off yer Netweather Summer bingo cards folks! Big difference between the UKMO and ECM at 144 this morning: UKMO: ECM: People looking to cool off will be hoping that UKMO chart becomes reality! Enjoy/don’t enjoy the warmth/heat - piping hot 20C for me today! Have a good weekend everyone!

Morning all Again UKV 03z run delivers big time storm action! Few midnight frames for the coming days: Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday. ECM midnight for same days above: Selected highlight charts from the UKV 03z run: Monday through Wednesday. Pretty much everywhere at risk! NW England probably getting the best of it all from current output/charts. Seen @Weather-history mention this below on the NW regional thread! North West England weather forecast from the Met Office: Outlook for Monday to Wednesday: There is a risk of severe thunderstorms through this period which could be interspersed with clearer and sunny spells. Staying warm and humid during both day and night. As ever for any new members viewing this...don’t take these charts as gospel. Will change about twenty times before the days above arrive. Lovely to look at though! Have a good weekend everyone.

Yeah - only one I ever bother checking nowadays. This is what they use for the chart I posted above: ATD Lightning Detector - The ATD system currently updates every 5 minutes using data from the Met Office Arrival Time Difference system, which is considered to be the most accurate lightning detection available.

This was up to 22:35 tonight - sneaky one off the Shetland Islands as well!

The hill walk was not required - got a twenty minutes downpour from this and that was it! Monday/Tuesday is looking very lively - precipitation charts to be taken with a pinch of salt at this range of course! These will change about twenty times before the days in question arrive. Selected snapshots for Monday/Tuesday. If none of us get a storm from all of this I give up on Summer 2020! Edit: @Mair Snaw great result tonight! Have a good weekend everyone.

I actually had a look through the UKV 15Z run earlier and dismissed that Saturday chart as a load of cobblers - way off with regards to temperatures. UKV 18Z run below is much more what we would expect. Saturday 12:00: 13:00 14:00 and 15:00.

Once this current crud clears through there might be a bit of stormy fun later - hopefully a walk up my local hill will be required. This looks tasty for 17:00. Convective Weather WWW.CONVECTIVEWEATHER.CO.UK Forecasting thunderstorms and severe convective weather across the British Isles and Ireland for up to the next 5 days. One to keep an eye on for our W/SW storm lovers especially. Also got excited about these blanket warnings for next week...then read West of Scotland is least likely to see anything. More than likely one for our NE/E/SE members! @Kirkcaldy Weather

What a load of nonsense. Most Summers deliver the 20’s in many parts of Scotland in each month - this Summer has been poor in the West. (Apart from the record June temperature in Prestwick) Parts of NE/E/SE Scotland have had no trouble recording 20C+ temperatures through July and at the moment - you can’t get much further North than Kinloss for example...20C at least for the next six days. @Don come to Scotland mate - you are a snow lover after all.

Indeed - UKV still going for a max of 36C today. @Alderc some nice cells approaching the SW - lightning kicking off.

Morning all Stormy runs being churned out now on a daily basis - will it actually happen though is the question? Snapshots of the latest UKV: Tuesday 21:00 to Wednesday 03:00