Mr Frost

Ah Winter 2018/19...still gives me nightmares! Everyone waiting and waiting for Narnia landscapes and the Winter of a snow lovers dreams on many occasions... Met Office UK outlook 18/11/18 to 02/12/18... Met Office outlook 29/12/18 to 12/01/19... Met Office outlook 31/12/18 to 14/01/2019... The best one...Met Office outlook 13/02/19 to 27/02/19... Met Office three month outlook issued 14/12/18... Now here is what actually happened... https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/press-office/news/weather-and-climate/2019/february-and-winter-statistics The point of this post...don’t believe anything you read with regards to long term forecasts/outlooks - appreciate the work/time put into them of course. What will be...will be! I will take a repeat of these months for Winter 2020/21. December 2009 or 2010. January 2010: February 2010: The top tier Winter months for me! All the best to you all.

Evening all Lovely afternoon/evening after the drizzle this morning - high of 16C...very pleasant in the sunshine and a nice end to the day. Latest ECM run - total accumulated rainfall out to 14/10: Not bad at all for most of us. Looking very seasonal later next week. 11/10 Chilly with frost and fog at times - lovely to see those dark blues to our North. Hopefully we get a few visits from the -12 upper 850hPa this Winter! Have a good week everyone!

All very average over this way but a very decent month for yourself and many others! (October has already made up for that of course) We almost recorded a below average September. (Scotland) Personally the only months of the year I want well below average are November, December, January and February! December 2009, January 2010, February 2010, November 2010 and December 2010 for example! Would also take a March 2013 or 2018!

Evening all That rainfall looks intense in the NE - big totals come Sunday morning! Yes @Benvironment welcome to my world! Hopefully no flooding issues for anyone in this thread. Drizzle here all morning and then as @chemikal mentioned mostly moderate rainfall but pretty constant since dinner time - high of 10C! Later next week looks much better although still the risk of showers/prolonged bouts of rainfall. (Snow on the mountains! ) Can see @shuggee air frost count soaring from mid October! UKMO 144: ECM 168, 192, 216 and 240: Seasonal/Autumnal sums up the charts above! Closer look at the ECM 120 charts... That would be quite something - hard to believe for early October and will probably have vanished on the next run! Promising mountains forecast: https://mwis.org.uk Planning Outlook Low pressure will continue to dominate across Britain throughout the week ahead, risk of stormy conditions for a time around midweek; although much uncertainty. Generally unsettled and rain frequent. Some windows of drier weather locally. Temperatures above freezing on all mountains early in the next week, but then turning colder from the northwest later in the week with showers increasingly falling as snow across the Munros, and even on high tops in England and Wales. All the best to you all!

Evening all! Hope you are all well. Lovely spell of weather recently for many - frosty mornings, plenty of sunshine and respectable daytime temperatures. Outlook has been summed up nicely above! It is Autumn though of course so wet and windy is usually the order of the day - at least nobody will feel left out from a soaking. We are all in it together! Latest UKMO 96, 120 and 144: Latest ECM total accumulated rainfall for the UK and Ireland: Let’s get the crap weather out the way before December 1st arrives! All the best to you all.

I think some folk in parts of the NE/E/SE might need a boat by the end of this weekend to get about. I blame @CatchMyDrift for posting about a dry September. UKMO 96,120 and 144: ECM total accumulated rainfall for latest run: Mountain Outlook looking very wet and windy. https://mwis.org.uk Planning Outlook: Low pressure and fronts will move in from the Atlantic during midweek, bringing heavy rain to west and south facing mountains on Wednesday. Generally low pressure is then expected to persist across Britain through into the weekend, although conditions will vary from day to day. Some days escaping dry, but expect areas of persistent and heavy rain, mixed with clusters of heavy showers. Close to freezing on highest tops Thursday and Friday, then warmer air is likely to be drawn in from the southeast. Winds also varied, marked lulls, but sometimes widely gale force on the hills. @Mair Snaw If you want a snow fix head to @Kirkcaldy Weather snow and ice thread - great stuff in there at the moment! Cracking pictures from @carinthian as well in the Austria and Worldwide mountain snow thread. Glorious stuff up North last night I see! Aurora and rare moonbows light up the night: Link below. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-highlands-islands-54338080 With regards to Winter 2020/21 I’m just going to sit back and see what happens! Totally ignoring all long range predictions/outlooks! Local 400 meters hill already marked out as my snow fix spot. Hopefully see more than one centimetre settle at sea level here this Winter. Last Winter was an absolute stinker - can’t be any worse this year! Can it!?

Could be a good show tonight. Wet morning here today and then a wonderful sunny afternoon/evening - high of 15C. Crystal clear overhead at the moment but can see those showers on the Coast. Lovely tomorrow and then a washout Wednesday! All the best to you all.

Afternoon all! Hope you are all well. Very cold start for many I see! Glorious spell of Autumn weather! Currently sunshine and 7C outside after a freezing start to the day! These pictures below sum up the last few days here - brief heavy showers on Thursday (Mammatus clouds) and sunshine/blue sky galore ever since. Perfect hiking weather - only thing missing for me was snowy peaks! (First settling snowfall usually arrives at the end of October) All the best to you all!

Had some lovely Mammatus clouds overhead earlier.

Evening all You both have a point - charts a few days back looked a bit more unsettled/snowy over the Scottish mountains for example @LRD so I can see what you are saying. (More of a dusting now over 800/900 meters) I see you live in Bedfordshire? Great spot for watching distant thunderstorms - just ask @Zak M but I don’t think you were ever at risk of anything exceptional this week/weekend with regards to anything interesting weather wise. (Cool days/nights from midweek and a soggy Wednesday?) As @Daniel* stated it looks cool/chilly for many of us midweek through to Saturday/Sunday - especially further North. UKMO: Winter coat/hat weather for many in the South. Lots of sunshine and not much rainfall about - which is great! (Not bad at all for myself and many others throughout the UK and Ireland) ECM accumulated precipitation: So much cooler from Wednesday, not too bad from a rainfall point of view, plenty of sunshine about and the risk of a ground/air frost or two for quite a few of us! (North to South) Decent Autumn weather for large parts of the UK and Ireland. All the best to you all and have a good week!

Evening all Hope all is well! How good is this weather!? Last few days a mix of fog, sunshine galore and temperatures between 18 and 21C! Couple of pictures below through the window of morning/afternoon sum it up nicely! Looks baltic for September standards later next week! UKMO 144: Mountains outlook is fantastic: Planning Outlook A band of rain and strengthening wind reaching far NW Scotland on Monday, will swing erratically SE to reach England and Wales on Tuesday - though for many areas the deterioration may be late in the day (perhaps after dark). Several days of frequent rain, intermittently strong winds and lower mountain temperatures will follow as low pressure envelops Britain and then drifts east. By Thursday or Friday, particularly cold for late September, with snow lying on many Scottish summits and perhaps on some higher tops elsewhere. https://mwis.org.uk Have a good weekend everyone!

Afternoon all! Glorious Autumn weather up here the last few days - fog in the morning, sunshine/not a cloud to be seen in the afternoon and temperatures between 18 and 21C - perfect September weather! (Not going to last much longer unfortunately) UKMO 144 looking very chilly! Mountain hike planned for next Friday/Saturday...should be fun... Planning Outlook A band of rain and strengthening wind reaching far NW Scotland on Monday, will swing erratically SE to reach England and Wales on Tuesday - though for many areas the deterioration may be late in the day (perhaps after dark). Several days of frequent rain, intermittently strong winds and lower mountain temperatures will follow as low pressure envelops Britain and then drifts east. By Thursday or Friday, particularly cold for late September, with snow lying on many Scottish summits and perhaps on some higher tops elsewhere. https://mwis.org.uk Great time of the year for a bit of weather variety! All the best everyone - have a great weekend!

Spot on mate! I would take a Polar martime airmass everyday from November 1st to March 1st! Agree with regards to Summer months - it is useless! Definitely welcome it though from late Autumn/Winter! Positives for me are thunder & lightning, graupel, snow, thunder snow and massive Cumulonimbus! Couple of pictures I took last Autumn/Winter with the airmass in question. Guess it depends on ones weather preference/location. Back to the models - ECM going for some rainfall/cooler temperatures from around 23/24th September. In the meantime some glorious warm and sunny weather to be had in parts of the UK! 31C today in Manston, Kent - lovely stuff! Pretty decent Autumn weather up here for the next few days. ECM seasonal went for a below average (temperatures) September across the UK and Ireland - something to keep an eye on. (Link below) https://effis.jrc.ec.europa.eu/applications/seasonal-forecast/ All the best to you all - hopefully everyone enjoys some warmth/sunshine! Not long until the most wonderful time of the year...

It is that time of the year again! Recent tweets from Iain Cameron - great man to follow throughout the season! Looking forward to many mountain hikes over the next few months - hopefully plenty of snowy scenes! All the best to you all.

Indeed - clearly see the difference on the Met Office charts I posted. It will be interesting to see how this month turns out - ECM seasonal went for a below average September! (UK wide temperatures) Latest ECM run is churning out this at 240 hours... Could be a cool/chilly final week to end the month. Before all that...decent weather up here for the week ahead! Would much prefer the 30C down in SE England tomorrow though!

Repeat of last Autumn would be perfect for me - October and especially November very dry, sunny and cold! (See post above) Also agree with @Sunny76 regarding Winter 2017/18 - one I will never forget! (See posts below) As we all know by now...what happens in Autumn (cold or warm season) means diddly squat with regards to how Winter will play out! All the best to you all!

Here are the actual Summer 2020 stats against the 1981-2010 anomaly/average. (Spot the errors above! ) One to forget around these parts! Current temperature 15C, heavy rain and windy. Low risk of lightning later. A deep low and the associated forward side of an upper trough (PVA) will move into Ireland and northern and western Britain during Wednesday. Outbreaks of showery rain with some heavier downpours will develop along and just ahead of an advancing cold front through the period. Instability in this zone is very limited / non-existent (up to 200 J/kg) so lightning is not expected to be very widespread. However, the trough/front will generate a strongly sheared environment with deep layer and low-level shear of 30-40kts. The could help to force some embedded deeper convection and thus some lightning cannot be ruled out. An area over central and northern Ireland into W/SW Scotland is the favoured area for lightning between 15z-22z. http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk

August stats against the 1981-2010 anomaly/average: Summer 2020 stats against the 1981-2010 anomaly/average: Autumn delivers heavy rain and wind gusts of 35mph tomorrow afternoon for here...no change from Summer really! Looking forward to a frosty/sunny October/November and then a freezing cold and snowy December/January/February. Throw in a wee named storm as well!

Summer 2020 against the 1981-2010 anomaly/average: Roll on Summer 2021! All the best to you all.

Indeed! That is roughly the same amount a few of us in here seen all of last Winter.

Morning all! Hope everyone is well. That was a chilly overnight/early morning period for quite a few of us. UKMO 96, 120 and 144: Week ahead nothing too exciting - sunshine, some rain/wind about midweek, temperatures hovering around slightly below to average during the daytime and chilly nights at the weekend. ECM: ECM total accumulated precipitation charts: Quite impressive upper 850 hpa temperatures on the 7th and 8th of September - that would feel cold in the NE! Lovely ECM chart at 240 hours for sunshine/warmer weather going forward throughout the UK and Ireland. (9th September) Risk of a wet and windy Wednesday in Western parts of the UK - GFS: Thursday morning rain more extensive throughout the UK - GFS: Fairly quiet and useable week for the most part - could be better...could be worse! All the best to you all and have a good Sunday!

Let’s just pretend it’s August 25th 2019. Current weather...11C, heavy rain and wind gusts of 30/35mph.

Plenty of heat in Scotland in June and August. June: July: August: SE/E/NE Scotland had quite a few 20C+ days in July. First half of June was great for warmth/sunshine IMBY - numerous days of 20 to 24C. Last week of June delivered a 28C for me. (Couple of fantastic overnight thunderstorms) August spell delivered a lovely spell of weather here (West Coast) with numerous days between 20 to 26C. (Eastern Scotland had insane thunderstorms) Not a Summer to remember though for me at least - 2018 and 2019 both fantastic. Back to the usual crud for Summer 2020! Northern Ireland (good in Winter for snow most years) along with Shetland/Orkney usually the worst spots in the UK for Summer sunshine/warmth/heat. From solely a UK and Ireland weather perspective I would like to live in the SE England from June to September for proper heat (earlier this month for example) and my current location/Scottish Highlands from October to April for severe gale events, frost and snow!

Morning all! Hope you are all well! Interesting weather week ahead! Risk of thundery showers in the London area/far SE tomorrow afternoon. Monday 12:00 Tuesday wet and windy. Some cool nights/early mornings nationwide through the week - Thursday 03:00 Thursday onwards daytime temperatures start to fall away. Risk of another wet and windy day on Friday for many. Friday and through the weekend the cool theme continues - bit of a struggle to reach 20C anywhere in the UK and Ireland for this period on current output. UKMO 120 and 144 ECM 168 and 192 It has been an action packed August - plenty of exciting weather! Hopefully a warm and sunny September ahead! All the best to you all.

It is never too early for some Scottish mountain snowfall. UKMO 120: https://mwis.org.uk Planning Outlook After a severe day due to severe upland gales and rain widely on Friday, the weekend will be showery as winds turn westerly. The rain will be frequent on some western mountains. Cloud will continue to shroud most mountains, particularly on Saturday. On Sunday showers will be of snow on highest Scottish summits. Next week, further bouts of rain and occasionally strong winds and overall colder than average. Edit: @Mair Snaw Get yerself and the family up Ben Nevis on Sunday Night/Monday early hours...light snow, heavy snow, sleet and a thunderstorm! Something for everyone.