Hot*Snow

Yeah spot on there dave - if you are under a blanket of cloud you need it to shift tonight otherwise temps will not be cold enough for any ppn to fall as snow. In my location it has been clear all night here and temps roughly -3 deg C with frost/ice patches forming so the tonic is pretty good. We need it to stay cold until this system moves in. Current confidence level (for my location): 73% Must admit it has been very quiet here tonight considering the potential we have for our region. One page of posts from 17:30 proves this. Anyway the proof will be in the pudding tomorrow. Hot*Snow

No worries Stephen, I totally understand your caution - an approach I adopt myself with regards the weather, especially snow. I have read alot of your posts with interest and realise that your location is almost a 'microclimate' in itself. Hopefully things will work out. Hot*Snow

Stephen - your best watching the bbc news 24 forecast which seems much more accurate. Anyway, heres my take on things: SUNDAY During Sunday a band of rain and sleet will enter our region from the west and readily turn to snow as it meets a pool of cold air. This could lead to accumulations of a couple of cm's on lower ground at least, with significantly more over higher ground. The system will gradually move eastwards leaving another cold night with temperatures below freezing leading to another frost and icy patches - particuarly where there is lying snow. Areas affected: Cumbria, Lancashire, Greater Manchester, Cheshire, Merseyside.

Is it the same band though or another one? Also is any ppn falling? Seems far too early to me - if it was it would hit us overnight whilst temps are at their lowest. Hot*Snow

Yeah this is pretty normal procedure for bbc forecasts - they have been doing it all week for the snow that has affected the south. It's not my style to ramp events up, as I'm sure alot of you know by now - however the fact that the BBC are on board for me as a significant boost given the accuracy of their forecasts over the last week. Hot*Snow

If the front is being preceeded by cold air I can't see it turing to rain for long - if at all. The bbc have'nt indicated this either.

I would agree - moderate snow with some heavy bursts, so potentially could bring a couple of inches. The bbc forecast did not show any indications of this being a transitional event either which I am suprised by. I suppose the god thing is that as the band leaves the region it will do so at night time. Certainly will keppe an eye on their forecasts - as I said earlier they have been pretty accurate this week. IF this was to pull off then this winter would stand out because - we have had a week of snowfall systems that have affected pretty much the whole of the UK - including areas that are not prone to snow. However this would have to be a signifiant event for the north west in order to stand out for me.

Yes it was for Sunday. Just seen the latest 15:30 forecast and it was similar - as I sais it is the most positive forecast (snow-wise) I have seen for the north-west over the last week.

In the last forecast I saw the radar had a large area of snow covering the region for a long period of time, forecaster mentioned words 'snow', 'north-west', 'significant' and were 'keeping an eye on it' - which I have'nt heard all week! They did'nt go beyond Sunday either although it could be because they were pressed for time. Certainly positive anyway.

The bbc news 24 forecast seemed to show good prospects for our region - and to be fair their forecasts have been very good over the last week. In fact it was the best snowcast I have seen for our region in a long time. Nice to finally see the north west potentially getting something at least - Interesting stuff indeed. I'm suprised how quiet it is in this part of the forum today.

To be fair you have made a valid point there - there are similarities to the Feb '96 event which was much more intense than expected. I think parts of the regions will see snowfall (of sorts), however, we need the various factors I outlined in a previous post to swing in our favour. Also these systems swing in favour for a region - especially on western coastal locations. If temps stay down in your location any ppn should fall as snow. Hot*Snow

Quite easy for alot of people here to ask this question. However, here in the north-west the majority of us have missed out while the rest of the country has had inches upon inches of the stuff. Not begrudging anyone of it but please bear in mind alot of us have missed out up here again.

The slight differences in temperatures will be caused by intermitent cloud cover causing fluctuations, app minus 2 deg.C here. There will be an overnight frost - which helps when any rainbands come in over the next few days. Follwing a brief analysis tonight my confidence of a 'major snow event' for the north-west has decreased slightly. The potential has laways been there but I have a bad feeling we are going to get let down again.

Totally agree mate, it is important to remain cautious but the potential is definetely there. We need the following factors to stay in our favour for it to pull off: (1) Ground/air temps stay low. (2) The track of the ppn heads for our region (its track could easily verge north or south of us.) (3) Need the cold air to win out preventing it from being preceeded by rain. (4) The system picks up plenty of moisture off the north sea - otherwise the intensity of the ppn will be minimal. So theres alot of factors involved here, as usual will be more of a case of nowcasting. However with models continuing a tend of further cold weather into next week things look like they may be swinging in our favour.

Aye, as I said earlier Sunday is worth keeping an eye on. I made a forecast eralier regarding Sunday - what are other peoples thoughts on te snow potential? Given the fact it is set to stay colder than I expected I think the chances of ppn falling as snow on lower levels - particuarly in the west of the region - may have increased slightly.[ Obviously we still need the front to stay on track towards our region as it could easily budge north or south of us.

OK I'm in dreamland now, but... I imagine if that band of ppn travelled further north than expected and then sat all over the north west and stalled giving a few hours of consistent snowfall and a few inches on the ground. Imagine.....

Interesting regarding Sunday's event, though still borderlie for me. IRight now I think lower level temps will be just too high and prevent the ppn falling as snow, falling mainly as sleet or rain. Higher levels as usual I think will benefit from this system. However, it is early days and I am open to the idea that things will change, will be a case of seeing how things pan out on the day. We will be relying on things being very cold though.

Light snow this morning which brought a partial dustingwhich was preceeded by a rapid melt. Cloudy and cool for the rest of the day. Current temp: 3 deg.C

Alot of talk about polar lows Kayro, what are your views? For me they are too difficult to forecast right now, but the potential is certainly there. Hot*Snow

Talks of potential polar lows showing on the radars just north of Scotland on another thread, very difficult to forecast but worth keeping an eye on all the same, particuarly for those in the north of the region. Hot*Snow

Totally agree mate. I'm gonna take a break.

Sorry guys, I don't want to sound miserable here but the prospects for any significant snowfall in our part of the country after today are looking marginal/slim at best. :lol:

Alot of talk about a band moving south from Scotland tonight - personally I don't think its ppn will have the stregnth to really affect our region - what are your thoughts?

Course your in the right place mate - Carlisle is in the north west of England after all (even though you get north east news!) As somebody earlier mentioned we live in a large diverse region, with people from Cheshire up to Cumbria - hence the reason why we have so many variances in the snow reports. Everyones contributions are welcome in this thread no matter where you are from. Hot*Snow

Well I was right in my forecast of the south, east and higher parts of the region getting the snowfall again today. With some people reporting falls of a few cm's. Interesting stuff indeed.