Chris D

Well, we didn't see that coming! http://www.wetterzen...ics/Recm962.gif But you can clearly see the strong jet. Just doesn't develop it at all. The ECM has gone off on one me thinks...

Tbh, looks to be worse for N England, especially for the coast of the NW. Not good at all. I have personally never seen such a bad storm at this timeframe heading right for the place I live which, as I've said, is quite concerning. There is nothing else to say apart from that the 00z is devastating for the NW, <~970mB of pressure, gusts over 100mph...never happened before. Hope I'm not on my own not wanting this to verify. http://www.weatheron...=0&PERIOD=&WMO= http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn1201.png

I have never said this but... I really hope this storm for Friday doesn't verify coz im coming home for Xmas. Im pretty concerned, especially as models have been so consistent :o Will be monitoring the Model Discussion Thread closely this week.... Makes me even more concerned...

Good consistency between the GFS 12z and 18z at 108hrs, for Tuesday's potential storm. http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn1087.png But still a way to go yet and changes, good or bad, are almost guaranteed.

Yes unfortunately.

About 6pm ish. Your probably talking gusts to around 55-65mph with 70-75mph on the hills across N Wales.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-16065842 "Forecasters say the central lowlands in Scotland are set to be hit by strong wings on Thursday in the latter part of the afternoon and early evening." OK, I dont think it'll be that bad lol. On a serious note, they say "with northern England seeing winds of up to 50mph". I think it'll be more like 60mph in northern England even inland.

Unless the GFS 18z comes off or the NAE makes it a little more intense (it wouldn't take a great deal), 75mph gusts wouldn't be out of the question for Southport. Bare in mind that the Jan 2007 storm saw a peak gust to 84mph at Crosby (and that was quite damaging), so it would take quite an upgrade for Southport (and the NW coastline) to be particularly badly affected. Saying that, we haven't seen a proper major storm since then. Its further north I would be most concerned with, 100mph winds across western Scotland are very severe indeed, and so is 80mph well inland across the southern part - which I see as a high potential at this stage.

Lol, i wanna be home right now. I am missing all this wild weather atm

Please here as well!!! :lol: Not like its likely to happen though... Oh well, I suppose Ill have to wait lol

I don't think I'll be seeing 25cm again unless another batch of the cold that came in Dec 2010 comes around again. Most of the time, for a coastal location such as Southport we miss out a vast majority of the snowfall from the Irish Sea (from NWerlies). It's simply due to the low elevation, proximity to the sea and the fact we are in the NW (lol). So since I now live at the opposite side of the country, I'd say the North Sea because it can't be any worse. But in terms of convective potential, I'd say the Irish Sea since its generally warmer.

At very short range, the far northern tip of Scotland and Orkney looks to be in for a right battering tonight. NAE suggests sustained wind speeds of 60-70mph, with gusts to 80-90mph seeming possible around the early hours? Looks quite nasty. http://www.weatheron...=0&PERIOD=&WMO=

It is impossible to forecast the NAO or AO very far advance since they too are models, and I hope you're not expecting snowmageddon again because otherwise you will be disappointed. Although prolonged or very cold weather is quite a way off yet, we are still going to get pretty exciting weather (or at least more exciting than what we have had for ages, dullness) in the next week or so I think, especially looking at tonight's models (especially the ECM). Don't get me wrong I love cold weather, but patience is a virtue.

I think all this talk of the Atlantic being "dead" is somewhat overdone, however, there has definitely been less in the way of vigorous Winter storms affecting NW Europe during the last 3 or 4 years. Is that because the 2000s had mainly very mild and active Atlantic dominated Winters, and we were "spoilt" with storms or "deprived" of colder and drier weather? Or is it just normal to have these patterns of higher and lower levels of precip and atmospheric pressure over relatively long periods? I think a mixture of the two seems to be the case. One thing is certain, and that is (although Im no expert yet) the fact that this current ENSO signal could take a nosedive into a moderate or strong La Nina territory again (according to the CFS) - making it two successive Winters with a strongly -ve ENSO. That means the value has not been above 0°C since May 2010. Will this have any effect on us? I know its very simplistic just to cherry pick one thing, but IMO the largest ocean is sure to have an effect across the World, albeit with lots of overriding factors changing conditions locally.

Met Office responds to the media reports saying there's no need for alarm. Link: http://www.metoffice...e-times-opinion I would slightly disagree with this statement regarding last Winter's forecasts; "In fact, our forecasts of where and when it would snow were second to none". Mmm, you didn't predict the deluge of snow on the 17th-18th Dec across NW England amongst other events, especially the 20-25cm that fell in Merseyside, anymore than a couple of hours in advance. I know it's very difficult to forecast snow but a line needs to be drawn.

Never seen Thundersnow in good old Southport, but I would think Its more likely to happen here in Norwich. This Winter perhaps...(and the clanger drops) But yeah, its certainly an unusual phenomena and quite interesting.

Lovely! Its funny how Ive just moved to Norwich and the warmest spell (nearly) of the year comes right out cue Mind you, most places across England should see 24-25c, which really is incredible for this time of year.

Hilary is one of the best looking storms this year, and the its still strengthening. IMO I would be surprised if she didn't reach borderline Cat 4/5 or Cat 5 at least for a short time today.

Well longer term (2+ months out), the MO might have suspected a cold winter, but were not so confident since they only told the government in October. I do remember that their medium term 15-30 day forecast did mention the possibility of a very cold and snowy spell of weather also in October. So although they probably didn't know about it like 3 months out, they did highlight very clearly the possibility of very cold weather in November for quite a long period of time. Edit: Maybe more of a reply to the post below;

Almost exactly my thoughts. Also from my non-expert viewpoint, although I think this Winter will be similar to last year, I think it will be slightly drier than last year (due to the developing La Nina again). But personally, I don't want another December 2010 because I want to be able to come home during Christmas!

When they say it was the worst storm for 15 years, what storm are they referring to in 1996? And they are presuming people have very short memories - forget the Jan 2005 (Erwin) & 2007 (Kryill), they don't matter despite the fact that they more way more destructive and deadly... I can't believe they think the public are that stupid Edit: Ah yes it was the "last hurricane to strike the British Isles" in 1996 - Lili. Of course

Yeh agreed, 60mph was the top gust at Crosby today (closest to me). Since I dont have reliable wind readings I would have to estimate around this value give or take 2 or 3mph. I have been watching this secondary feature (for later on Tuesday) since the weekend and it was fairly potent on the NAE late yesterday, and today it seems somewhat weaker. But the GFS has a more intense feature as you say, so too does the ECM. Personally, I think it'll turn out to be a fairly potent feature with a much shorter period of very strong winds than today. I'll expect gusts to equal that of today (here anyway), and even exceed that if it's a strong feature as I'm more exposed from that wind direction. Interesting to see what'll happen. Regardless, another very windy day on the cards for tomorrow. Wind still howling outside atm, not really decreasing a whole lot I have to say.

Winds quickly picking up here now.

How come im pretty close to Blackpool/Liverpool and yet XC Weather predicting no more than what we have now? In fact Crosby is reporting higher speeds currently than what is forecast to happen on Monday... http://www.metoffice...st_weather.html http://www.xcweather...ecast/Blackpool http://www.xcweather...ecast/Liverpool Somethings not right with the forecasts. Useless for my location!

More like 60-70mph across coastal NW England and N Wales, at least.