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Chris D

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Posts posted by Chris D

    Weather in the general media (Newspaper features etc)

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    And the MetO does it all for nothing out of the goodness of their hearts??? There are things called taxes. Also if the models are so infallible, why have people working there at all? Why not just get a computer print out?

    Piers Corbyn is an astrophysicist who makes a very good commercial living out of predicting weather. He has his own system which has an 80% hit rate, and used to make a few bob with the bookies, until he won too often so now they won't take his bets. Why should he explain how it works? He makes nowhere near what John Hurst, head of the MetO gets… earns more than the Prime Minister, bonuses, gold plated pensions etc.

    http://www.telegraph...c-pay-rise.html

    Yes well wrt your last point about the head of the Met O, that is the same as all public services. The Meteorologists there are not really on that much at all (start on ~20k, rise up to ~26k after training, only while very experienced you go up to over 30k if you have a management role). The pay exponentially increases as you go up the ranks though, so to speak. Not right really, but you would have to say that all govt owned agencies/businesses have similar pay structures.

    Also, models are programmed with the laws that we as humans have discovered, and the output is based on what we have observed. Calculations are based on these laws and so a forecast is created. There are quite a few reasons why the models are sometimes unreliable or inaccurate; ranging from the lack of sea and some land observations to the chaos theory. A human is still needed to interpret the output.

    I get the impression what Piers does is throw out all the laws that we have and say, "actually I'm right, even though I won't say how I am right, or indeed explain how I have proved am right except for getting it right 5 or 6 out of 10 times". (And that's a bit generous)

    He may well be an astrophysicist, but a good scientist will explain how they are wrong/right and base their method on the laws (i.e. thermodynamic laws etc) that we have learnt in the past.

    Weather in the general media (Newspaper features etc)

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    http://twitpic.com/bvms3x/full

    Is anyone else shocked by this feature? Just said this in the regional thread:

    Our favourite forecaster Piers Corbyn says, "Behind their thick veneer of arrogant 'expertise' they are clueless" - referring to the MetO.

    That article is quite insulting to everyone who works at the Met Office - he is basically saying all the knowledge they have doesn't mean a thing. I don't see him providing any of the services that the Met Office provides on day to day basis? The only service he provides is what I interpret as guessing, because he doesn't explain thoroughly why he predicts what he does.

    That man needs a massive slap. Although I fully understand he is fully in it for the £££, media headlines and charging for his forecasts etc.

    • Like 2

    Weather in the general media (Newspaper features etc)

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Chris D

    "Behind their thick veneer of arrogant 'expertise' they are clueless"

    That article is quite insulting to everyone who works at the Met Office - he is basically saying all the knowledge they have doesn't mean a thing. I don't see him providing any of the services that the Met Office provides on day to day basis? The only service he provides is what I interpret as guessing, because he doesn't explain thoroughly why he predicts what he does.

    That man needs a massive slap. Although I fully understand he is fully in it for the £££, media headlines and charging for his forecasts etc. Sorry had to get off my chest.

    Anyway, Sunday evening looks good for us wrt snow! Posted Image

    • Like 3

    Three Counties & East Anglia Regional Discussion - January 16th 2013 19:00hrs>

    in Regional

    Posted · Edited by Chris D

    BBC -some places could be cut off

    never ever heard them say that before.

    Must admit a very good forecast by the beeb there, got across the severity very well, even a mention of these showers we have atm in EA continuing into tomorrow morning! Top notch.

    Some very light snow in Norwich now !! Oh no not more !!

    Yes! To last a while and could add another couple of cm's tonight. As I say above, showers could continue through the night. Very slow moving, too.

    Winter Model Discussion 18Z 16/1/13 onwards.

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Chris D

    You are joking?

    This time yesterday it was a Nationwide event tonight its for the SW and Midlands only.

    Andy

    I think you are joking? The models very clearly show snow amounts varying from 2-10cm across the country, away from Wales and west Midlands where totals could be in the region of 10-20cm. Way more over hills.

    http://expert-images...011900_1718.gif

    http://www.weatheron...=0&PERIOD=&WMO=

    Nationwide event I think.

    Three Counties & East Anglia Regional Discussion - January 14th 2013 20:00hrs>

    in Regional

    Posted

    Hopefully not going too far off topic. I would pay £100 to see a decent fall of snow and a week of cold temperatures but after that I suspect I would have had enough of disrupted trains, supermarkets low on food and petrol stations running out. Hopefully the utilities would remain on otherwise it would be unpleasant very quickly. Then again I have worked a few ski seasons so have experienced months of cold and snow already.

    If the nights get colder than this I will start to get a bit worried about pipes freezing etc.

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