Chris D
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Posts posted by Chris D
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Hello, I'm a Numerical Weather Prediction Model...
....and I'm a alcoholic
sums up my feelings on the current outputs!
Aye, in fact the GFS(p) was so drunk this morning it was unable to produce a cloud cover output past +252hrs. lol
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Not seen a Red wind warning for the north-west for a very long time...folks back in Southport saying their lights are flicking and stuff is shaking. Pretty amazing this storm. Slightly worse to come? I dunno but gusting well into 70mph at the coast it seems
Back down here we're still living in effectively what is a rather large lake lol.
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Holy mackerel - goodbye Southern England!
Oh my lord lol. Good job its the GFS hahaha
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Any idea of the winds we would get in the south this time?
I'd guess at 40-50mph widespread inland for S England. A windy day for sure, focus at the moment is for Wales, N England and NI still, for 60-70mph widespread gusts
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Looks like we will lose the fence this time, very flimsy after Mondays gales. Looking a lot more severe Midlands northwards this storm. Wouldn't be surprised to see warnings upgraded tomorrow for some.
Yes Im fully expecting the Met Office warnings to update tomorrow to reflect the recent output. If not, I'll be shocked lol.
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Observation for 7:30pm was around 4m. The normal astronomical level would be around 2m at that time. High tide is still ~3 hours away.
:O
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The tidal gauge at Lowestoft is about 2m above normal ..... 3 hours before high tide.
Is that correct? Thats unbelieveable.
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One of the few times they haven't.
Yes would agree for once! Looking at the gauges....
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Tell you one thing Twitter is really good for; getting meteorologists' views etc on stuff!
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Thanks for pointing that out mr know it all. Anything else you feel i need to be corrected on lol
hahahahaha. Nope thats it!
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I was trying to point out that even he said there would be a 25% reduction in wind speeds. Its confusing when you get so many people saying different things. I am in no way Blaming anybody for the latest run. Warnings are there for a reason
from Ian F:
"& a 25% probability of LESS significant winds"
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You not read the IanF twitter posts then
Err yeh and he says pretty much the same thing
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Surely, some heads can roll in the media
Seriously
go to: yahoo.com
headline is:
"UK will take full force of Hurricane"
and this may end up being a damp squib non-event
Seriously !! - DId they not read the Met Office press release from earlier
Ah can beat that - "MEGASTORM (in capitals of course) to bring Devastating 100mph winds and 48 hours of utter hell. Could bring widespread destruction."
LOL
Courtesy of the classic Express - the paper for people who know nothing about weather whatsoever.
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Everyone calm down lol.
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I really dont know what to make of this, its to big a change in my eyes!
Think of a yo-yo; classic GFS characteristic lol.
If there was one model not to trust in short range, it'd be this one. The latest output is a huge change and unless subsequent runs show similar, some salt is required.
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Another short shower just then, but much heavier than the last one. Another one starting now.
Yes something developing across Merseyside atm, here's hoping lol
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Yet no-one will believe just how bad it is. They think I'm making it up!
Well personally I don't think it's that bad and I live on the coast lol! Well, what can reasonably be expected given the location.
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Here's a couple of photos, I think the 2nd one is my favourite UK lightning photo I have taken, so I'm very pleased.
Got some good structure shots before it arrived, but yet to look at those as they are on my other camera.
That 2nd photo is awesome!! Well done
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I am so looking forward to some mildness, that I don't care if it's wet or not lol! Of course, it looks like turning wet and windy next week so although it's crap weather I'll take it over repetitive cold. I feel a bit guilty anyway, because I think we have gone way over our snow quota this year
This comes from a coldie as well; just shows how cold the first bit of this year has been!
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Mmmm my trip back to Southport may be interesting on Saturday then...it appears.
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Yes incredible convection going on in the N Sea right now, showers literally all over the place. We've just had a pretty heavy shower here, but a bit too brief cos of that wind. That being said, there looks to be plenty on the way!
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Don't think I've ever seen flooding rain followed by lying snow before, but thats what we've had in Norwich! Quite remarkable. The 1cm or so is still around too.
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Thanks the other course I applied for was at Reading which is more maths based.
Quite a lot of the courses at UEA are not particularly maths based, however this course is the most heavily maths based, here is the description if it clears things up
. (Fundamentals of Meteorology):This module is designed to give a general introduction to meteorology and its relation to climate and climate change, concentrating on the physical processes in the atmosphere and how these influence our weather. The course contains both descriptions and mathematical treatments of meteorological topics and the assessment is designed to allow those with either mathematical or descriptive abilities to do well; however, a reasonable mathematical competence is essential, especially in rearranging equations, and a familiarity with basic calculus is helpful.
First of all, well done!
I don't know about the Masters but, I've done the UG modules Meteorology I and II at UEA and can say there is some maths there, but not that much. I think you should be alright!Personally, UEA's been pretty good so far
. (Fundamentals of Meteorology):
Model Output Discussion - The final stretch to Christmas
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted · Edited by Chris D
Link to this http://old.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/monitoring/coverage/dcover/ :smiliz64: