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Chris D

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Posts posted by Chris D

    Model Mayhem - Moan, Ramp, Go Nuts

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Chris D

    Yes, but the December debacle was just +48 hours when Meto/BBC were issuing severe weather warnings with 90% probability of severe cold & heavy disruptive snowfalls!!

    We all know what happened next!

    I have to be honest, when I was in the north west, the BBC/Met Office often got snow situations wrong. The infamous one was Dec 2010, where they initially predicted "a few wintry showers" - this quickly turned into 20cm of snow the next day - for a coastal resort such as Southport.

    That said, it was extreme and was very difficult to forecast. One thing Netweather has taught me over the years is the skill of interpreting the models...which is tough...but when mastered can help an awful lot. Obviously I have learnt a lot more in my degree but Netweather has helped a great deal!

    Winter Model Output Discussion - 06Z 09/02/13 onwards

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Chris D

    As its quiet here at the mo, I thought I'd sum up my first impressions as a newbie to the forum.

    1) The lesser spotted GH has been absent without leave all season despite indications to the contrary

    2) Fi charts that depict favourable cold outcomes never verify....... zonal patterns do

    3) Horrible 'shortwaves' keep popping up to ruin our chances although I suspect that poor synoptics are allowing this to happen

    4) This winter has been characterised by flimsy synoptics over the near continent and nasty persistent 'PV stuff' over the other side of the pond

    5) Low heights to the west, no heights to the northwest and high lows to the east with impossible low lows to the centre.

    6) The GFS is good in the short term... apart from when it isn't

    7) The ECM is good in the long term...apart from when it isn't

    dirol.gif IB and G are true sun worshippers

    Heres hoping that the latest 18Z +252 verifies.... one of them's got to one day.

    Nick

    Perfect summary.

    Tbh, no significant stuff anywhere in the medium term (wrt to GFS 18z and ECM 12z), with no significant height anomalies anywhere near the UK. Low heights to the W and relatively high heights to our east. Nothing moving anywhere fast. But, potentially interesting battle(s) occurring, out to 200hrs.

    South East and East Anglia Regional Discussion 6th February 2013>

    in Regional

    Posted · Edited by Chris D

    Don't know if anyone has checked the latest Met Office written forecast for EA tonight, but it reads as follows:

    "Headline:

    Wintry showers becoming confined to some eastern parts. Continuing cold.

    This Evening and Tonight:

    Wintry showers in many areas, becoming confined mainly to Norfolk overnight, with several centimetres possible in places. Clear skies developing more widely overnight. Frost also developing in many places as brisk northerly winds ease somewhat. Minimum temperature -1 °C."

    http://www.metoffice...st_weather.html

    South East and East Anglia Regional Discussion 6th February 2013>

    in Regional

    Posted · Edited by Chris D

    Jay Wynne just mentioned east anglia getting a couple of inches of snow tonight? Not heard about this

    Mmmm yes...that surprised me too! I think yes some snow is possible this evening/tonight, but couple of inches it appears may be way off the mark. We'll see, maybe they have some info we don't, because I don't see anything significant on any model atm.

    Indeed the Met Office warning still goes for 1-3cm at low levels which seems like a fair bet at this stage.

    Can someone recommend me a book...

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Chris D

    Something brand new; Operational Weather Forecasting by Peter Inness and our very own Steve Dorling (who I must say, because I have had him as a lecturer, has endorsed it quite a bit!)

    ISBN-10: 0470711582

    http://www.amazon.co...60014904&sr=8-1

    Good if you want the more forecasting side, on top of the fundamentals, of course. I'm not going to buy it yet, but giving it a bit of a read in the library first.

    Also, I already own Atmospheric Science: An Introductory Survey by Wallace & Hobbs - this is better on the fundamentals and includes pretty much all the mathematical content required for Meteorology.

    South East and East Anglia Regional Discussion 31st January 2013

    in Regional

    Posted · Edited by Chris D

    Haven't really been on the forums much in the last couple of weeks, and I have to be honest, after having that "adequately" cold weather with a "adequate" amount of snow earlier in January, I don't really mind if the weather is this or that for the rest of the winter. I just like interesting weather, i.e. hot/cold, windy, stormy etc.; it's just that my favourite type of weather happens to be snow!

    I just get the impression that incoming cold/snowy weather takes over people lives almost! That being said, I wouldn't mind another fairly shortlived cold spell (as long as its not between 8th-11th Feb as I'm visiting home) - I'm not asking much lol blum.gif

    Three Counties & East Anglia Regional Discussion - January 20th 2013>

    in Regional

    Posted · Edited by Chris D

    It looks like a calibration difference between different radars. The coverage is made up of overlapping returns from many different stations so I'd say thats whats causing SOME of the odd looking lines

    ex-radar engineer but not weather radar.

    Ahhh right, thanks for the info! Was thinking somewhere along those lines but not knowledgeable enough to explain it haha

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