Chris D

wow, that is unusual for her to ramp! Get yer shovels out!

Cold enough! Looking like large dumpings of snow for us for the next several days! ECM has the high slipping SW at T144, so not as good for longer/mid term prospects, but lets see.

Yes, GFS finally shows the white flag and backs down. In fact, the 18z appears to be quite a good run for both snow and cold! Dumping of snow for many parts Mon night/Tuesday, and Wed (for EA mostly).

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn1267.png East Anglia to get a right pasting by T126!

Must admit, the ECM Ensembles are very impressive, at least up to day 6...it's a vast majority which keep us on the cold and snowy side. A lot to look forward to me thinks!

and upgrades!

Well yeh I know they do, they think the GFS is rubbish, but I haven't seen any consistency in any model over the past several days or so. Therefore I think they have got to be still on the fence wrt next week and beyond. Well yes, I apologise they obviously do, sorry! Meant they are unsure, sorry I didnt make that clear

Put simply, basically not a clue but they slightly favour a colder solution! Summary is, that a pretty potent cold spell is coming up this weekend, with high potential for significant snow in some areas. Thereafter, it's either a bit of Atlantic stuff then some cold later in the month, or - the rest of the month blocked and cold.

Sorry meant T120 haha Getting mixed up between UKMO and fax lol Think I need to go to bed, mind's not working correctly after all this drama!

Wow amazing fax for T144.

115 people like this post...most people I've ever seen do this on this forum on 1 post lol!

There's a lot of steam in the thread tonight, can we remember what we are actually arguing about. The weather. And more specifically, a SSW. Model mayhem was what was predicted (esp by Ian F) - and that is exactly what we have. That's my last post in the model thread for a while.

Lovely GFS so far! But not perfect. That being said, the blocking is less on this run than of late. As others have said, strong cross-model agreement of a cold spell from next weekend onwards (esp looking at the trend of the ensembles, which have gradually gone colder over the past several days).

Well, the GFS between 150-190hrs looks a bit dodgy with that energy coming in - but then the ridge builds to the NE, although the position moves a bit further S than on previous runs, leading to a still very cold SE/SSE continental dry flow well into FI. Still good imo.

Haha, was just gonna say! Ooops, sorry I think I've made too many posts in this thread now...back to quietly viewing it...

Lol!

Geez louise...shows the uncertainty of it all lol. Mind you, the GFS could well be on to something here (and NOGAPS as well)

John Hammond mentions the SSW on BBC Weather! Well, that was unexpected. Ian F was right... Oh and yes, my word at the 18z! Has some similarities to the 06z this morning

May I wish everyone a fantastic 2013! Hopefully January will bring us some joy wrt snow and cold...we've been through enough already! I think this almost definite SSW is already beginning to be felt across the models. The chances now have got to be in our favour for at least a proper cold spell (we have one every winter), plus this SSW and the previous errr....sagas, shall we call them! Surely something better than average. Edit: And yes I am a bit surprised by the CFS, although let's be honest - if there was a model to swap, change and display extreme solutions the most, this would probably be the one haha! Still, awesome run.

Oh dear, I've never seen the model thread so downbeat about cold weather prospects, even the likes of TETIS are sounding depressing. That being said, I like a good storm - but even that isn't really on offer for the next few weeks at least. Although I am hopeful of something more noteworthy past mid-January. I think some on here (including myself) should be diagnosed with ZWAD (Zonal Weather Affective Disorder) - which predominantly affects Netweather.tv users during the Winter period if a lack of cold weather occurs.

I'll take any period of cold/dry weather atm, its flippin' flooding out there! (although here obvs it's actually not that bad) But anyhow, except for the far reaches of the distant future (in forecasting time) there is nothing of real note in any of the models, still. That is not to say that the background signals may become favourable in January.

Now there's straw clutching...

There remains very great uncertainty regarding the pace/timing of the Atlantic system which will come in during Friday. GFS 18z has it much later than the ECM 12z, and this has varied greatly run to run on both models. However, what is certain is the event occuring, and so a relatively short lived "unsettled" spell of weather will occur during the following week or so. Thereafter, I fully believe the very close Scandinavian block will come into play, and the background factors will take over as the Atlantic backs down again (as it does cycle normally during Winter). So, as others have hinted at, cold weather could well return in time for Christmas. Something to watch, definitely. This has been hinted at by all models. In the mean time, some bitterly cold weather to come for all this week, with harsh frosts, freezing fog and snow showers (mainly for the E) to become heavy at times. However these should ease by Thursday according to the models. PS I am deeply saddened by the loss of Ian F tonight, a few on here have really "spoilt it" and because of the apparent cold bias he will not post any more. Deeply disappointing as this is the only insight into what the Met Office thinks...

Every thread is visible for quite some time.

I'm flabbergasted at that chart. I'm going to have a heart attack at 240hrs. Omg lol!