Alex95

Big flakes now, could be a sign of milder air?

Definitely intensifying here, a fair bit of drifting too despite the small depths.

Only about a cm here, but it is blowing about - every so often a gust of wind blows a cloud of snow down the road. I had a decent accumulation on my head this afternoon whilst walking home.

A few flakes starting to fall here.

It will this time

Remarkably quiet in here considering the risk of significant snow in the next few hours!

Plenty of light-moderate snow showers now look like moving onshore in Northumberland.

Light snow here at last! Looks like grauple actually. There are some pretty beefy showers out to sea - unfortunately the wind is now a SE'ly so I think we'll struggle to see them move onshore, but its certainly worth keeping an eye on the area off the coast near Hull to see if the showers get going as they would then move towards us.

Can a duck swim?

The convection is getting going in the North Sea now, mainly off the East of Scotland but I expect that to spread down the coast tonight. Tomorrow still looks game on for some snow showers, although I can't see us getting big falls. Maybe an inch or two. Then there's Wednesday, which could well deliver as potent occluded fronts usually make it across the Pennines and give us a decent covering.

It will snow at low levels on Wednesday for a little while at least, I think those charts from the GFS can be a bit inaccurate as the resolution isn't high enough. Had an awful journey to Newcastle on the Metro this morning - was that "Andy." from Netweather I saw complaining on their Twitter feed?

Just the GFS, NAE, etc. The temperatures and dew points were predicted to fall in the SE first, spreading northwards during today/tonight.

The cold air has now undercut as far north as Yorkshire, shouldn't be long before we start getting some snow.

It's obviously not as clear cut as that, we still have residual warmth today from yesterday, whereas by Wednesday the cold will be much more entrenched.

The cold air should be undercutting soon, hopefully we can get some precipitation when it does.

There might still be some surprise snow on Monday night from the onshore flow.

I still don't see any big changes... today never looked that rosy, and Monday night still looks prime for some snow showers. A few days ago we speculated that this could be a snowy spell, but as we get very near the event we can say pretty accurately (usually) where the precipitation will be, and it turns out that we will miss most of it this time.

Not really - the precipitation on Sunday night will be thrown up by the front, but the heaviest stuff will be down south. This won't be anything like 2010, and probably not January this year either, but its premature to rule out the potential for some heavy snow, be it from tomorrow's front, convection on Monday night, or another front mid week.

Monday night and Tuesday still look pretty convective to me - the GFS charts never show huge totals from the North Sea as they don't seem to handle these events too well. The NAE looks quite good for our region on Sunday night with 5-10mm possible, which would equate to about 5-10cm of snow, if it accumulates.

We've had a few good years for thunderstorms up here, last year was the pinnacle though with 'thunder Thursday'. My favourite type of weather, with snow a close second of course. I'm not fussed about hot weather, it rarely gets far above 25C up here anyway even in 'hot' spells.

You clearly haven't visited the North West thread... (Although its a bit less miserable in there now than it has been at times this winter)

I never have really, he tends to be popular with the SE crowd for his over the top ramps. The ECM looks pretty tasty to me, we would probably get a significant snow event if that came off, then the snowy easterly floods in by Monday afternoon.

The 12z GFS actually shows a wintry mix on Sunday, heavy sleet and snow on Sunday night and Monday morning with decent accumulations inland, then a cold easterly late Monday and Tuesday with heavy snow showers. It then shows some frontal snow possibilities for the middle of next week, but the gist of it is that mild weather certainly isn't on the horizon for the time being. I'm pretty happy with it overall, much better than the 00z was, and better than the 06z in the medium term. Really, Sunday would be the only let down on that run compared with some previous runs, but even on the 06z it didn't look like a snowfest up here as the precipitation didn't reach us until Sunday night anyway. The UKMO is brilliant for Monday, but I favour the GFS atm as I have a feeling the UKMO is brushing over the shortwave which would draw the warm sector northwards on Monday and prevent a full blown easterly, although we could still get it a day late, as per the 12z GFS.

I like the 12z as it brings back the snowy easterly from Monday night, despite Sunday and Monday looking more marginal.

Sunday is looking pretty good now, but I suspect we'll see it all turn to rain on Monday as those milder uppers head northwards, as shown by the GFS on both the 0z and the 6z. Once the warm sector reaches us it won't be marginal, just plain rain, but Scotland looks like staying in the cold air at the moment so it won't take much to put us back into it later on Monday.