danm

How can you know this? You can’t.

Monday cold? Forecast is for 16c and dry with sunny spells. Warmer again from Tuesday but will likely be a mix of sunshine and some heavy showers.

Well one positive is this wretched cold is going to disappear on Monday. Mid to high teens, possibly low 20’s in some favoured eastern spots coming up this week. The downside is that there will still be rain around, but in any sunshine it will feel much warmer.

I remember Atlantic 252 the Met and BBC show the rain clearing away north and east by the afternoon.

A bit of a discrepancy between the BBC and the Met Office for Monday. The Met has a lot more rain over western and northern areas than the BBC does. A reasonable day in the S/SE, 16c with sunny spells.

Where have you seen 24c for London but 14c for Winchester? Seems inconceivable. Winchester isn’t that far from London. edit: just seen the chart posted above. Must be a cold front.

Properly grotty morning today, damp, cold. But the models are looking a lot more promising this morning. Get some warmer air in during the upcoming week and then things hopefully look like settling down into the second week of May. Monday and Tuesday also looks decent around these parts:

SunnyG today has been surprisingly very nice. Lot's of sunshine all day.

Summer8906 I suppose coastal Hampshire can be quite different to inland SE England, including London, at times. It's always cooler on the coast and if the wind is from the SW, you're always a little more likely to drag in some sea mist and low cloud from time to time.

B87 undoubtedly better than some other Summers. I’ve just gone back and looked at the records. July 2019 had 19 of the 31 days above 24c: August was very similar, bar a brief cool and wet spell mid month:

July 2019 had an average max of 25.5c and August was 25.3c in London. July had about average sunshine (slightly above for the SW), August was sunnier than average. The Summer had loads of days in that warm to very warm category (24-28c) and then 8 days above 30c. It was by no means a classic like 2018 and 2022, but was a very decent modern British Summer. Yes there were a couple of cooler and wetter spells, but we live in the UK, so that will happen in almost every Summer.

There was a wetter spell in the middle but that August started warm and ended hot.

2019 is one of those Summers I view as underrated. The only really poor spell was early June. You're right, it was quite humid but it was often warm, sometimes hot and there were decent amounts of sunshine.

Turning into a much sunnier day than was forecast.

It will change at some point. Let's hope it's the second week of May!

Well guys and gals, let's hope the GFS is on to something here for the second week of May. Please lord, deliver this for us...

Let's hope the GFS has picked up on a new trend as we head into the second week of May:

A brief plume week after next?

Alderc 2.0 jeez, sorry to hear that. I hope they catch the bugger, or did they stop once they hit you?

Nice sunny morning.

B87 my point was more that blasts of intense heat, as @Cheshire Freezewas talking about, are becoming more common. Even during average Summers. 2020 was a great example. A very warm mid July to mid August with an intense heatwave in early August.

We’ve had several hot blasts in recent years, not just 2018 and 2022. Those two summers were exceptional. The number of 35c+ days has increased significantly over the last 5 or 6 years.

Let's hope so.

I agree, there is no "should be". An average is an average, sometimes colder, sometimes warmer. The problem isn't so much the temperatures - we've had cold spells in April before - it's the persistence of the duller and wetter than average weather that's the main problem. We just can't seem to get a stretch of dry and sunny weather at the moment. I accept that in late Autumn and winter, it's what the weather is like at that time of year, but by now you'd hope we would get something more consistently dry and sunny. The SSW definitely put a wrench in things and hasn't helped. I dreaded the talk at the end of Feb of an imminent SSW, knowing this would be the exact result of it. Not snowy mid March nirvana as many on the Mod thread were hoping for, but a perpetuating northern blocking pattern, shunting troughs into the mid latitudes giving us dull and damp weather.

B87 yeh i think it's highly likely that the late season SSW has perpetuated northern blocking. Low pressure is just getting stuck at mid latitudes.