danm

Next week still looking good on the morning output. This coming weekend never had any cross model agreement for fine, settled weather. Day 7 onwards on the GFS looks increasingly good: ECM also shows a strong pressure build starting to appear from overnight next Monday onwards: GEM very similar: GFS mean for the middle of next week: ECM mean for a similar timeframe:

Tea leaves? I have no idea what the weather will be like this Summer, neither do you.

Unless you were expecting some miraculous short term upgrades for the next few days, then yes. It was always meant to be next week. Fingers crossed it happens.

Bit confused by a couple of posts in here this morning. This week was always meant to be unsettled, a mix of sunshine, heavy showers, some longer spells of rain, and warmer. This weekend was never set in stone for dry, settled weather. We had a couple of ECM Op runs that showed that, but there was never cross model agreement. However, there has been a strong signal across the models for a little while now that NEXT week will see pressure building, and that is still the case this morning: GFS: ECM:

Lovely morning, lots of sunshine. Should warm up nicely to about 18c this afternoon.

There’s literally no way to know.

B87 luckily sunshine now doesn’t stop it from appearing in May! I’ll take both.

Yep but small victories, we have to start somewhere.

Pretty incredible that, every month from Jan to June 2013 being below average, significantly so in some months.

B87 looks like we’ll get some decent sunshine and 17c/18c tomorrow.

Alderc 2.0 ECM looks cracking into early next week though. The weekend was always more of a Q mark due to model disagreements.

I think it’s to be expected that people are moaning (in the moans thread after all) because we’ve been through an exceptionally wet 18 month spell. Compounding that is that peak Summer last year (July to mid August) was so poor. I think many people here would be less peeved if the copious rainfall over the last 18 months was reserved for the Autumn and Winter months, but we’ve had that plus a wet and dull mid Summer period, off the back of a chilly and at times wet, dull Spring last year (barring the end of May). However, things will change, so I don’t have patience for people who say “this Summer will be poor because the last 18 months have been poor”. One does not equate to the other. Things can change very quickly. It’s already looking like next weekend and the following week could bring some warmth and sunshine.

I think the SSW helped to reinforce northern blocking, and has allowed a southerly tracking jet to persist for longer. We can never know for sure if it is due to the SSW, but the main reason we’ve had troughs milling about in the mid latitudes is due to northern blocking.

Well at least the sun is out.

Looking pretty decent for eastern areas tomorrow and Tuesday, some more showers breaking out on Wednesday. Then possible high pressure in charge for the weekend:

Alderc 2.0 the Met Office also show 17c and sunny tomorrow:

After the crud this weekend, I’ll happily take this for tomorrow:

TwisterGirl81 much of the Mediterranean had a very wet spell last Spring and early Summer, due to the blocking high that gave so many western areas here dry and sunny weather last May, and our UK wide heat last June. The sub tropical jet ploughed through the Med right from Portugal to Greece. Many places down there had a very wet spell at that time.

reef looks like much of central, northern and SE Europe had above average rainfall.

The UKMO seems to back up the ECM with a nice weekend:

Although the GFS is poor next weekend compared to the ECM, it still shows high pressure for the following week: 0z: 6z:

How can you know this? You can’t.

Monday cold? Forecast is for 16c and dry with sunny spells. Warmer again from Tuesday but will likely be a mix of sunshine and some heavy showers.

Well one positive is this wretched cold is going to disappear on Monday. Mid to high teens, possibly low 20’s in some favoured eastern spots coming up this week. The downside is that there will still be rain around, but in any sunshine it will feel much warmer.