danm

Northern blocking, southerly tracking jet stream, and as a result, high pressure to the north of the UK, low pressure systems milling about at mid latitudes. A common set up at this time of year, but likely made worse by the SSW. Although saying that, in April the wettest weather was actually across Cumbria, central and southern Scotland.

Tomorrow and Sunday are looking at lot better than feared considering the trough that’s going to be over us. The south should have a much brighter, sunnier day with possibly just a few isolated showers. Sunday similar.

This place needs some cheering up. So here’s the GFS just rolling out. Continuing to look very nice next week:

In Absence of True Seasons to make you feel better, a large swathe of central and SE Europe, plus NW Iberia is under a thick band of cloud, raining too. Lots of heavy showers over France and heavy rain in northern Portugal and NW Spain.

B87 don't know about those sites. Could be some other factor maybe? From what i've read the CS sensors over estimate sunshine a little in hazy or broken cloud set ups. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/230346161_Comparison_of_sunshine_recorded_by_Campbell-Stokes_and_automatic_sensors The differences were both positive and negative with no pattern of occurrences. Comparing CS and CSD1 in England, Kerr and Tabony [24] found that the CS recorder overestimates the sunshine due to the spreading of the burn on the card. This occurs in cases when cloud cover is broken, and the sun is high in the sky.

B87 I'd replied to the Met Office after they sent me the above about whether the old CS sensors slightly over-estimate the amount of sunshine. This is the reply I got this morning: Thank you for your patience; we have received the below response from the relevant team; "It is likely (as described in Legg 2014 Comparison of daily sunshine duration recorded by Campbell-Stokes and Kipp and Zonen sensors - Legg - 2014 - Weather - Wiley Online Library<https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/wea.2288>) that the earlier Campbell- Stokes sensor slightly overestimates the number of hours of sunshine measured. However, to ensure consistency in the long term series, adjustments are made to match the new observations type to the existing data. This allows the series to continue with good homogeneity allowing us to assess trends and long term changes." Further details can be found within the paper itself.

KTtom the Met Office app is notorious for that. Honestly, I'd pay very little attention to any app beyond a couple of days. They change constantly as they are dictated by raw model output, and their algorithms can sometimes be quite odd. For example, the BBC weather app will always show as the headline symbol, the worst weather that is expected on a particular day, even if that weather is only expected for a very short period of time. E.g. if you had sunny spells all day, but a shower or two was expected over a one or two hour period, the symbol will show showers. I use the apps at most as a very tentative guide on the possible direction of travel. not what the weather is actually going to be like beyond a few days out.

What's working against a record temperature is the wet ground. We'd need things to dry out substantially if we're going to break 40c again. Other than that, however, it is just guess work. Saying it's likely to be dull because the past few months have been dull means nothing.

Bristawl Si this band of rain has moved north so slowly today, definitely slower than forecast yesterday.

SunnyG you sure you aren't actually a teenager?

Where are you getting this from, an app? Weatheronline? These things are useless beyond the very short term.

Alderc 2.0 are we looking for breakdowns now before the high pressure has even established itself? I get we've all had a rough 18 months and been burned before, but this is similar to people getting their winter snow but instead of going out and enjoying it, they complain about the thaw that's inevitably coming in 5 days time. Who knows, this well modelled settling down next week could all go t**s up, or get watered down, time will tell, but people have been looking for signs of warmer, sunnier weather for ages. It's showing, as people have been hoping. Let's see what plays out and really not worry about a possible breakdown of the high pressure in 10 days time. We all know how reliable the models are at that range.

Just posted in the Mod thread, hard to complain about the runs for next week this morning. Every Op run is churning out a similar pattern. There will always be small variations in orientation etc. A snapshot for mid next week: GEM - pressure high, orientation decent, thicknesses high: UKMO - very similar: ...as is the ECM... GFS also quite similar, but yes on Tuesday/Wednesday the high is a little flimsier compared to previous Op runs, but it still gets to a very decent place: The GFS mean for Wednesday looks good:

Can't really complain about the output this morning, we seem to (hopefully) be on a countdown to a week of settled and increasingly warm weather. UKMO ECM GFS GEM

SunnyG your location was at 20c+ on both Tuesday and Wednesday

A lot of doom and gloom on here, here’s the ECM next week to cheer you up: …and the UKMO…

GFS continues to churn out the eye candy for next week:

Summer8906 pretty much all of next week is looking fine and settled, as it stands. Why worry about the week after? It's so far away in forecasting terms.

One of those frustrating days where synoptic placement leaves some areas dull and grey.

...and mainly because it's cloudy. In East Anglia, just north of the cloud band, it's 23c.

In Absence of True Seasons totally agree. Ideally I don't want a year with above average rainfall, but if it mainly occurs, as you say, between October and March, and we then get a good Spring and Summer, then it doesn't really matter as much. Obviously that isn't what we've had for the last 18 months - it has largely been persistently dull and wet. So I'm not really bothered now about needing a significantly below average rainfall run of months or significantly higher than average run of sunny months just to balance out the stats. I just want a decent, largely warm and sunny Summer. I'm not asking for drought conditions. *Stormforce~beka* we're under a weather front. Doesn't really matter which way the wind blows, until this sods off it'll be cloudy.

B87 agree.

I don’t either, I really hope we get a good Summer. But I’m also comfortable with the fact that Autumn and Winter will likely be wet enough that means our entire year is above average.

B87 I guess you look at it from a statistical perspective which is fine. I’m really not bothered about what has happened until now. I’m bothered about what happens during the rest of Spring and Summer. If we get good amounts of warmth and sunshine, but it’s not enough to get the entire year at or below average, I don’t really care so long as we get the good weather. We probably will finish 2024 wetter than average considering we still have Autumn and December to come. I just want a good Summer. If 2024 still ends up wetter than average due to the wet Feb, March and April, then so be it.

Frigid the SW have really drawn the short straw. It’s dull and cool here today, but the last 3 days have been warm and largely pretty sunny. Yesterday had a lot of cloud but brightened up in the afternoon. Two 20c days on the trot. The SW have been stuck under a weather front that entire time.