danm

Arch Stanton the averages across any part of London will be almost identical, but yes ofcourse in any one month there can be variations due to localised showers. The average for your location of 72mm just cannot be correct. Heathrow's average is 45mm, Northolt's average is 45mm, Kew Gardens average is 45mm. These are all official Met Office sites. The average in your part of London will be virtually the same. There are no official stations in east London, but if I look at one of the closest stations to east London, Writtle in Essex, the average for May is 43.6mm, slightly lower, but not hugely. Looking at the rainfall totals to date, up to yesterday for the month, Heathrow is on 26mm, Northolt on 22mm, St James's Park is on 36mm, so some small variations across the city as you'd expect.

CryoraptorA303 i really don't think this is true. The rainfall stats across London are on average almost identical. Maybe very slightly more in west London vs east London, but the difference will be negligible.

Arch Stanton not sure where you're getting those stats from. Heathrow's average for May is 45mm: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/maps-and-data/uk-climate-averages/gcpsvg3nc Month to date, up until yesterday, Heathrow had recorded 26.8mm: Meteociel - Climatologie mensuelle de London / Heathrow (UK) ( United Kingdom ) WWW.METEOCIEL.FR Résumé mensuel des observations météo ( températures minimales et maximales, précipitations et ensoleillement) de la station London / Heathrow (UK) ( United Kingdom ) These is an official Met Office site.

SunnyG the worst place to be tomorrow is the Midlands, northern England, southern Scotland, central and northern Wales:

Northwest NI no not that different at all this month!

In Absence of True Seasons yep, we've had a few of those scenarios of clear blue sky day followed by a cloudy day, primarily as we had a stubborn trough to the south for a while. The May average for sunshine in London is 207 hrs. Our current raw value for the month up to yesterday is 127 hrs, with 10 days in the month left to go. The raw sunshine stats also get revised up, so a good chance we could finish around average or a little above. As for rainfall, we're on 26mm, that'll get topped up a little today and some more over the next couple of days. The average for May is 46mm, so depending on the track of that low tomorrow, which largely seems to miss us, and any showers that break out, I'd say we will likely finish the month below or at average for rainfall, as Friday onwards and the BH weekend looks largely dry and sunny. Current modelling for next week also looks OK, but it is still some way out so can't be sure. The thing is, one intense downpour can drop half a month's worth of rain in an hour or two, so can't rule that out.

In Absence of True Seasons we've at times had a trough to the south and higher pressure to the north. Fairly common at this time of year. I think the far north and NW of Scotland have had a pretty exceptional month, but as for the rest of the W/NW, I think sometimes it's perception over reality that they've had significantly more. Looking at the month to date, up until yesterday, if I compare London's raw, unadjusted sunshine stats with those of other locations to the N and W, it shows that we've had 127 hours of sunshine so far. For comparison, Glasgow has had 88 hours, Manchester 137 hours, St Athan in south Wales (near Cardiff) has had 124 hours, Malligan in western Northern Ireland has had 91 hours. As for rainfall, we've had 26mm up till yesterday, Glasgow has also had 26mm, Manchester 23mm, St Athan's 43mm, Malligan 20mm (which is dry for that part of the world).

CryoraptorA303 here's the latest Met Office forecast.

A few unsettled days coming up after quite a few fine, sunny and warm days, but the model output looks like an increasingly improving picture again from Friday and through the weekend for most.

Largely excellent Op runs again this morning for the BH weekend, admittedly more to towards the SE and a little less so towards the NW, but everyone should get some fine weather for at least part of the weekend. GFS and ECM in particular look very good, the UKMO a little less so. All have pressure building from Friday after a wet couple of days on Wednesday and Thursday for some. UKMO: ECM: GFS:

In Absence of True Seasons yeh felt very warm out there in the sunshine. Ended up a little cooler here today, a high of 21.7c in London versus 23.5c yesterday. Glorious sunshine right the way through though.

Variations on a theme in the models this evening. Pressure building nicely from Friday, some suggestions of a temporary cut through of lower heights bifurcating the Azores/Scandi high link up to possibly give a few showers on Sunday on the GFS and UKMO. ECM doesn’t really make much of that and is the pick of the bunch:

Today has been a stunner. Pretty much cloud free all day, a little cooler than yesterday, 21c the current high, but beautiful out there.

Nothing much to add to the above, excellent runs in the main this morning. Some potentially quite wet weather for some midweek and then a build of high pressure across most of the UK, giving the majority a fine, warm, sunny weekend. You can't ask for more than an Azores/Scandi high link up. It's the set up that locked in such a persistently good spell in 2018. The high as shown isn't robust enough to stop the trough SE of Greenland from breaking through at some point, but if we see this pattern repeating I'll be very happy. Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99814-model-output-discussion-spring-has-sprung/?do=findComment&comment=5072183

Northwest NI wow!

Northwest NI I think there’s a weather warning out for thunderstorms across western NI.

Tomorrow looks a bit c**p unfortunately. Cloudy and damp.

Lunch in the garden, can’t ask for better than this. Not a wisp of cloud.

B87 but the Summer months were poor, dull, wet and cool. Statistically it may have been a slightly sunnier than average year, but I'm less bothered about a sunny November and December. If we aren't getting the sun in the April to September period then it's frankly a bit of a waste. 2007 had an excellent April, but poor after that.

This is day 7/8, so much to be resolved before then, but the ECM wants to strengthen the Azores/Scandi high link up. That's a 1030mb area of high pressure, and if verified could lock in a lengthy warm, sunny, dry spell.

Yep the shoulder seasons were very good and it wasn't a wet year (in fact it was very dry overall), so that's a tick in the box for 2011 and means it isn't as bad as a 2007 for example, but the Summer months were quite cool and dull.

Nothing much to add to the above, excellent runs in the main this morning. Some potentially quite wet weather for some midweek and then a build of high pressure across most of the UK, giving the majority a fine, warm, sunny weekend. You can't ask for more than an Azores/Scandi high link up. It's the set up that locked in such a persistently good spell in 2018. The high as shown isn't robust enough to stop the trough SE of Greenland from breaking through at some point, but if we see this pattern repeating I'll be very happy.

Can add 2011 to my 2007 and 2008. A poor Summer and a poor Winter. Only really good spell of weather was in April and May. Edit: and as I was reminded below, late September/early October was pretty special with that heatwave, but it's not enough overall to make 2011 a good year.

Ahhhhhhh…..

The worst for me usually are a combination of a cool, dull, wet Summer and a snowless, or close to snowless Winter. 2007 and 2008 were both poor in that regard, and are strong contenders for worst. Feb 2007 had a heavy snowfall, but it was one of those awful snow to rain events that saw 4 inches almost all melt by the end of the day. Then there were the poor Summers.