Blizzard_of_Oz
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Posts posted by Blizzard_of_Oz
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Interesting times ahead certainly, could we get snow? Or no?
Time will tell, time will tell!
Well hello Saint I was wondering when you would be making an appearance, the snif of snow and Saints there how are you excited?
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Time to raise the St Ives snowshield
Held firm in January and looks ready for another test in the coming days
Did notice the Ants scurrying about gathering bits up, they nearly got snowed in last time
ROFL thats funny, better luck this time. -
yeah it was me-- this is a definite slow burner- I will try & get one of those special long posts up later this eve-
Lewis- 850's getting warmer- their getting colder mate- the mean was only ever down to -10c-
Now we have -13c on tap-
http://www.wetterzen...s/Rmgfs1262.gif
S
Thanks Steve you were very confident earlier aswell as you can see. This was posted on Tuesday I think well done, I wish some of the more unexperienced on here would learn from you.
- Cumulonimbus
- Group: Members
- Posts: 6,357
- Joined: 10-March 04
- Gender:Male
- Location:The foothills of Bexleyheath NW KENT
Posted Yesterday, 18:23
http://www.wetterzen...cs/Recm1201.gif
Game set & match Cold-
Widespread snow in the NE at day 5 & heavy snow stalling out in the South & SW on the same day-
Feb 1996 redux morphing into Jan 85-
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I think there is too many IMBY statements on the model thread, with people complaining that its going to be a "weak Easterly". A very good GFS 12z and UKMO 12z run if you ask me....
Exactly Snowman I have posted for all of them to be patient because it looks like a long cold to very cold spell for at least 10 to 14 days some of them on the model thread are even talking of warmer weather moving in at the end of February un bloody believable unreal manic depressives some of them. Dont they know that somewhere in between the 2 weeks they will be snow. I'm not happy, in fact I'm quite sad MAN why cant they just go and live in bloody Alaska if they are that despeare. lol
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A very slow start and a very slow end to the cold- very cold weather as some 1 already posted on here wasnt it Steve or Nick that told us so ? The models now show us this its incredible if they remain the same because snow would be in there some where so be patient and dont worry.
Edit: God give me strength Im off this forum now.
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Perhaps Norfolk and Suffolk should have there own snow thread then
I understand that it must be very frustrating when other parts of the Region have quite heavy snowfalls and your part of the Region gets very little but like I said maybe this time things will be lucky for you. Even where I am in East Herts. just a few miles further North in Stevenage it was not as deep as the fall where I am usually its more in Stevenage but we got fired in the line of a streamer in January.
Its always going to be the case even a couple of miles can make a difference in these conditions so I do hope it will snow for you this time and bring the depths of snow you would like to see.
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Just look out for The Eye In The Sky posts on the model forum he will explain in detail of his opinions on this and I can gladly say he is right the vast majority of times. Just for now relax because the trend on the models is cold, cold and colder.
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Well I think its about time we all sat down and relaxed lol. It certainly looks like the very cold will be pulled in over us if that Greenland high comes up and I have just read on the model forum that things may even get better coming from the West aswell.
Its great to see all of the models very much showing the same pattern trend for the next week and beyond in Fl aswell, whats even more encouraging is that the B.B.C. are now starting to mention the word snow they are usually very careful with the forecasts even a couple of days before any events.
It may not be that much of a disruptive week but I think that the following week will be very similar to January just gone, its unfortunate for those that missed out on the heavier snow last month but may be lucky this time, plenty of time if next week remains the forecast.
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Im sure it will Snowman0697 I have not missed a post on the model thread and its been an amazing 10 days or so reading them to say the least. Some of the more experienced forecasters on here have said all along that the Easterly always remained a threat and they were right.
If anything the models now suggest a even colder week following this week so imo the longer the cold spell stays with us they will be a increaseing risk of snow especially with the high tracking over Greenland and that could give us more widespread snow, certainly an interesting 10 days or so ahead of us on here.
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Just found the forecast on Youtube
Can you give me a link for that please, thanks.
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I hope they do TEITS but isnt the UKMO much more relaible in the 72 hour frame? Thankyou for your posts they are only a few on here with superior knowledge in being to explain whats occurring and is likely to happen.
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A positive start from one of the lesser models that was halfhearted this morning, the GME clears the shortwave se'wards without leaving any residual energy behind which is a good sign.
Keep them coming please, I have several cigarettes burning in the ash tray a.t.m.
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i'm with you on the lack of confidence. i think if the 12z's continue with the theme we can start to relax. as for snow, well if all goes to plan then it will be the snowiest spell this winter for many in the east. even typing that makes me feel i'm jinxing things!!
I'm quitetly beginning to gain some confidece now that the runs are in some agreement, could any 1 with more knowledge PLEASE explain what sort of temperatures we could expect by Monday and Tuesday according to the latest runs. Like some 1 mentioned earlier lets get the cold first then the Snow potential if any.
Will this be the extremely cold Easterly that was mentioned a while ago or a weakened Easterly some members have been posting charts showing -15 is that possible in my part of the country East Hertfordshire? Your thoughts please on the model runs at present in terms of temperatures from the ensembles or should I wait for the answer after the next 2 runs, I hate to say this but after last weeks fiasco on the model runs Im still a little cautious but I understand that all of the models are showing some dgree of cold beginning next week. Thankyou.
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Generally I check the ECM and UKMO first and then if they've got a cold outlook I don't really care what the GFS shows as that will normally cave in anyway!
To me the GFS is like Iceland supermarkets, lots of quantity and offers but poor quality and crappy old stodge that might fill you up but give you indigestion! The ECM is like Waitrose, you can't afford much but what you get is good quality, the UKMO is like Sainsburys , good but with the occasional irritating Jamie Oliver moment!
Apologies to Iceland fans but any company that employs that irritating Coleen Nolan deserves to go out of business!
Nick I would class the UKMO in the brand of Tescos 'every little helps' God knows what Asda is? Sorry off topic but I couldnt resist delete, delete delete. Oh my the models have had me so confused and at times I have been reaching for the prozac. Im now leading a different approach with my mood swings following the model runs in a way very eratic and laughable.
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Well say for example there was a major weather event on the way, would they want users on the net reading the same info they have. This could cause havoc in the press and on the streets etc. So surely they have other more programmed models which they use to recieve there information regarding the outcome in the weather.
ROFL is there a post of the year competition because this gets my vote. You know they could be a hint of truth in that because I recall that the B.B.C. were saying on the eve of the last big snow event in January that the worst area would be in the West of England when infact 1 of our very own forum members was saying that the band of snow would be further East and he was right.
I even remember forum members from the West posting in the SE and London forums congratulating themselves after listening to the B.B.C. forecast.
Maybe this time they have fixed the models because they dont want to cause panic buying down at the local Tescos lol.
Oh dear you just have to laugh and lighten up sometimes on this forum after the mad and and crazy model runs over the last 7 days.
Maybe Ian Fergusson is trying to warn us forum members in a secret code in fear he gets found out for leaking out the Armageddon conditions heading our way, hey Im only joking of course... or am I ?
Over to you Ian.
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now i dont live in the UK anymore..the most fascinating thing about the models..is not the model output itself but peoples reaction and interpretation of those models...my view as being completely impartial these days is that the UK will end up with neither raging mild or cold weather but fall somewhere in no mans land.
Yes your probably right 7-8 c and cloudy for the rest of February, but as its already been spoken about in here and the majority agree 1 has to take control. All of this will be sorted soon the models have to agree sometime this can't go on for another week surely not it's driving me mad.
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Seriously that is hilarious, proves the fact that we cannot cope with the cold weather, even when we try and emulate it.
As for the 0z tomorrow, I do get the feeling that they will trend back to a SW'ly but then re-introduce an easterly on later runs - I think tomorrow will be a truly roller coaster day. This based on nothing but instinct, guesswork and conjecture.
I think you have it spot on in your last sentance, however was any 1 expecting anything else from the last few runs after the last 24 hrs fiasco?
Thursday is Rumble in The Jungle day and we will witness all of the runs coming into line and agreeing with a Easterly or spring like conditions they will be no in between next week.
Something has to take control soon or the Easterly will surrender into its corner and retire until next Winter, but the Beast is 1 hell of a fighter and is my favourite to win the control even if it it comes in pulling punches that would do me to round off a superb Winter.
Let the battle commence and its round 1 on points to the Easterly tonight.
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I'm preparing myself just now lol, its always good to get your well balanced thoughts on the runs, I'm afraid I'm sitting on the fence also. Wow its amazing how things have changed but I thought something must be wrong because of a certain poster on the boards from the B.B.C. kinda like reading in between the lines of his posts.
Ian Fergusson:
In fairness, the UKMO 10-15 day briefings have consistently called for the easterly influence to establish sometime around start of next week (i.e., briefings over the past two or more days) and not based on GFS output but instead largely on the EC ENS (refer to previous posts containing abstracts of the briefings)
Thanks for that Ian while others on here yesterday evening were saying Winter was over some people never learn about our British weather do they lol.
However I'm not 1 of those people who would go on and say its nailed until the fat lady is clearering her throat as some were saying last night. Im glad the forum is back in the agreement now and the models are starting to settle down its amazing how much human influence can change things isnt it?
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As long as the UKMO run keeps on track and the GFS run catches up in a day or 2 I will be very happy. It looks good for the High to build in Greenland this is what I will be watching for on the charts and then the Easterly will start the journey. Caution is needed though as Snowman says and if its the same sort of runs by Wednesday I would then say its 90% chance of happening the timing of 96 hours is the key if that high has progressed North.
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The next couple of sets of fax charts will be very interesting, particularly in view of the latest noises about cold coming from the Met' Office.
I'm sure they would have been a lot of noise in Exeter over the weekend and today lol, I hope the UKMO remains stable in the next 48 hrs.
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Although I thought the models were overdoing the Atlantic yesterday, I didn't expect a backtrack as rapid as we've seen from ECM and to a lesser extent GFS today- even UKMO has backtracked a fair amount. A cold dry, but at times possibly wintry, February is once again looking quite a realistic possibility- though with the way the models have been flipping about recently I wouldn't rule out the possibility of some "milder" runs appearing again tomorrow!
I'm preparing myself just now lol, its always good to get your well balanced thoughts on the runs, I'm afraid I'm sitting on the fence also. Wow its amazing how things have changed but I thought something must be wrong because of a certain poster on the boards from the B.B.C. kinda like reading in between the lines of his posts.
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The Met. Office outlook is quite a contrast to yesterdays, I hope the models start to agree with each other it's been 1 hell of a rollercoaster week on here. I hope posters will not get overexcied this time until we have all the models agreeing at t-120 and a more relaxed approach is taken until we have something more solid in the blocking then we can al do a Yamkin
:) only joking there. My gut feeling well I don't want to tell you at this early stage like TEITS says going to hang back a little on this until the right time.UK Outlook for Saturday 6 Feb 2010 to Monday 15 Feb 2010:
A spell of wet and windy weather affects the UK during the first weekend with south or southeasterly winds probably reaching gale force in the north and west. Most places will have rain for a time and this is most likely to be heaviest in the north and west. There is also a chance of sleet or snow in the northeast at first. It is likely to become drier by the end of the weekend, although rain or showers will continue in places. Although there is still some uncertainty, the unsettled pattern of rain or showers, possibly of sleet or snow, is likely to continue throughout the week and into the second weekend. Temperatures likely to start around normal, but probably becoming rather cold or cold, especially in the east.
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Take a look at Ian Fergusons post on the previous page, looks like you will get a few more snow showers nothing to write home about but still. I think they will make it into the Hertfordshire area later also.
ROFL thats funny, better luck this time.
3 Counties & Ea Cold Spell Discussion Part 7
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
There is a good chance of snow during the middle and to the end of the week, next week looks great but Im not even looking that far ahead lets wait and see how it goes this week. I think this spell of cold snowy weather may be just as good if not better than January judging by the model runs.
A long patient wait but if we get the cold making a track back and the North Easterly Artic blast who knows what may happen.