[Record Warm Atlantic SST's discussion & possible effects]

Very cold air leaving Canada is going to result in explosive depressions forming over these waters then heading to Europe, yes the track might be further south but surely a wet winter is a dead cert?

Then again as someone said high SSTs support high pressure but I still think a wet winter is now very likely.

Andy

[Winter 2022-23 early thoughts - general chat]

For what it's worth, summer 1976 was similar to 2022 and September/October 1976 were exceptionally wet and thundery with high SSTs.

November 1976 was pretty average but cold weather arrived in early December and persisted untill, early February with several notable snowfalls.

Winter 1976/77 was a cold, snowy one and the first cold winter for 6 years.

Would be nice to think that history would repeat itself 

Andy

[The Cold October of 1974]

This October was remarkable for the widespread low temperatures across the UK particularly early and late in the month. On the 7th wet snow was observed to fall across large areas of South East England to give the earliest reports of falling snow in the area since Victorian times. I remember the lunchtime news reporting the widespread reports of falling snow that morning, I have the DWR for that day and many airport weather stations noted a snow/rain mix for several hours in the morning. Later in the month strong northerly winds brought widespread wintry showers to the north of the UK and on the 30th the A66 Trans Pennine route was closed by snow between Penrith and Scotch Corner. October 1974 was also the month that the BBC broadcast the lengthy documentary 'The Weather Machine and the Threat of Ice' presented by Magnus Magnusson, it was a fantastic documentary that warned the recent drop in global temperatures heralded the approach of the next glaciation, this combined with the recent very cool summer, cold autumn and forecast of a bitter winter made for a sombre outlook. As a 13 year old school boy that loved snow I was as excited as hell! Alas, winter 1974/75 was one of the mildest of the 20th Century and within 10 years the talk was all about Global Warming. However, for a few months in late 1974 it did seem like the world was about to freeze.

[Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives]

Like in Winter, when it’s 

Dont mention a Greenland High

[Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives]

Hmmm, looking at this mornings models the weather next weekend looks ok in SE England but decidedly cloudy and damp in the NW with a air flow off the Atlantic.

pressure pattern actually close to normal which TBH isn’t good news for my part of the world ? 

Andy

[Model Output Discussion - Early Summer and Beyond]

We better hope this mornings GFS is a rogue run cos it's a stinker, with very cool and unsettled conditions from the middle of next weekonwards even in the SE.

I am not convinced and the MetO certainly doesn't think such an outlook is likely.

In SE Spain at the moment and temperatures way above average with August like temperatures, much of the Med is the same.

Andy

[Model Output Discussion - Early Summer and Beyond]

The output is better than it was a few days ago and going forward conditions in the SE look decent enough.

However, here in the NW a continuous flow of air off the Atlantic will make for poor conditions evening pressure rises.

Our best spell of weather so far in 2022 was the fine spell in March, since the its been very average with very few warm, sunny days.

Andy

Just now, Penrith Snow said:

The output is better than it was a few days ago and going forward conditions in the SE look decent enough.

However, here in the NW a continuous flow of air off the Atlantic will make for poor conditions even if pressure rises.

Our best spell of weather so far in 2022 was the fine spell in March, since the its been very average with very few warm, sunny days.

Andy

 

[Model Output Discussion - Early Summer and Beyond]

Yes GFS very unsettled but as I said before after 3 months the Atlantic had to return eventually and I suspect we are looking at a good 4 week unsettled spell at least in the NW.

TBH I am bored with the annual summer chase which up here is always fruitless and I am looking for a cool wet summer which will make a cold winter in 20022/23 much more likely.

A synoptic rerun of June to December 2009 will do fine.

Andy

[Model Output Discussion - Early Summer and Beyond]

After 3 months of predominantly dry, anticyclonic weather a change to a more normal westerly flow must be anticipated.

The question now is how wet, how cool and for how long?

The absence of the Azores High ridgeing northwards on this mornings ECM is notable, but rest assured if the AH is absent for the next 5 months it is sure to reappear strongly in November!

Andy

[Model Output Discussion - Early Summer and Beyond]

Seems to me both GFS and ECM hint at high pressure to the west if the UK in 9 days time.

long way out of course but this current warm spell may not last beyond the weekend.

The weak northerly scenario seems likely as this has been a repeated pattern this spring.

If so expect more dry weather but a lot cooler 

Andy

[Model Output Discussion - Early Summer and Beyond]

56 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Just one post in 11 hrs.. oh dear all those promising settled warm charts gone down the pan..

Indeed and here in Cumbria the heatwave has been reduced to 3 hours on Saturday afternoon!

[Spring and Summer weather moans]

I left the UK for Spain on the 29th January and it was anticyclonic dry, cloudy and 10c. Returned today and guess what it’s anticyclonic dry, cloudy and 10c!

When are we going to get any actual weather!

Andy

[Spring 2022 Chat]

50 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Again Easter looks underwhelming on this mornings Ecm, lots of cloud and occasional showers and temps struggling. Gfs starts ok but goes downhill through Sunday and Monday. 

Depends where you live, here in the Lake District Easter is looking good as the best weather will be in the NW.

North/South split in our favour for a change 

Andy

[Spring 2022 Chat]

The UK weather now is awful, growing up in the 70’s we had a run of mild winters but they were always compensated for by some cold, snowy weather in spring.

1973 brought a sunny mild March but April brought a very cold northerly spell with widespread snow. 7cms lay at Birmingham Airport on the morning of the 12th.

1974 spring produced several easterly spells with some snowfall in March. Election Day on 1st March brought widespread snow to the Midlands

1975 brought a very wintry March and April with widespread snowfalls from the second week in March till mid April. Birmingham was brought to a standstill by 18cms of snow falling on 27th March. Then of course was the bonus snowfall on 2nd June!

1976 again gave us a cold March with easterly winds and some snow.

All these winters were mild but nature compensated in Spring. No such luck in 2022 with another mild, boring March 

Andy

[Spring 2022 Chat]

Spring used to follow Winter, it now follows Autumn  

[Model discussion: Hunt for cold - into February]

This mornings ECM reaches Spring, 1st March but no real change although high pressure has pushed north into Europe but heights remain over Iberia. The result is the UK in a mild south westerly flow while a plunge of cold air over Eastern Europe moves south into Greece providing scope for another Athens Snowfall Special. So as I said no change really.

Andy

[Model discussion: Hunt for cold - into February]

Some signs now of cold zonality in FI, I think this is the best chance of getting some snow before this nightmare of a winter ends.

February 1998 was exceptionally mild after a mild January but a spell of cold north westerlies in the last week brought heavy snow on the 28th.

our only chance is something similar this year.

Andy 

[Winter 2021-22 Chat, Moans and ramps thread]

45 minutes ago, *Stormforce~beka* said:

Give it another 2 days then I am!

Surely, for Winter to be over it actually has to start!!

[Model discussion: Hunt for cold - into February]

1 minute ago, jon snow said:

Will we see some snow flakes this god damned winter?..well, looking at the Gfs 6z operational..some of us will…phew!!!  

As long as you work at the Cairngorm Ski Lift! 

[Model discussion: Hunt for cold - into February]

Very poor runs this morning as expected with not even the cold zonality of recently, instead it as a Bartlett apocalypse with intense high pressure over Iberia and deep lows to the north throughout the ECM run.

This takes us with high certainly to the 21st February and things will need to change quickly if we are to get any kind of cold spell before the months end.

GFS tends to build pressure from the south in FI but to be honest guys this just moves the deck chairs on the Titanic.

In a year that has brought a good deal of snow and cold across the Northern Hemisphere one can only stand in amazement on the terrible winter we have had to endure.

Andy

[Winter 2021-22 Chat, Moans and ramps thread]

51 minutes ago, Walsall Wood Snow said:

Remember this day 15 years ago. We were having a pretty rubbish Winter then, but on this day it somewhat redeemed itself with those couple of snowy days. 

The previous September (2006) was a warm one (16.8c) and it was a mild Winter overall with little to no cold weather beforehand. 

Doubt we'll get a Feb 2007 consolation prize this Winter though, but still time I guess.

Winter 2007 was just as bad here with no lying snow all winter, this was the first snowless winter in Penrith since records began in 1903.

Unfortunately we have had several more since then underlying just how bad recent winters have been.

Andy

[Winter 2021-22 Chat, Moans and ramps thread]

8 hours ago, Freeze said:

This winter 0 days with lying snow. 0 snow flakes falling from the sky.

No storms for interest. Winter 2013/14 was much better from a weather enthusiast point of view.

 

It feels like a Zombie winter at least 2014 had the storms and a lot of upland snow in February.

This winter is more like 2017 which was equally dull and miserable.

Andy

[Winter 2021-22 Chat, Moans and ramps thread]

4 hours ago, damianslaw said:

Just a couple of weeks or so to go before we start to feel first pangs of warmth from ever strengthening sunshine.

Old folklore used to say winter's back breaks about mid February.. I.e. freezing weather tends to lessen in likelihood once we get to about 22nd Feb.. we can still have ice days etc into March but the sun tends to be strong enough to break ice where exposed to the sun.

Its also the point when I begin to transition in terms of my attention to Spring. Coincides with light holding on until near 6 in clear skies. Until then a good 2 weeks of full winter state of mind ahead. 

Agreed, late February cold spells tend to lack punch with 2018 being the notable exception, after the 22nd the sun's strength is notable and snow thaws quickly on any sunny day.

Andy

[Winter 2021-22 Chat, Moans and ramps thread]

As night follows day, spring will follow winter but as the weather never progressed beyond November we could miss a whole season!

[Model discussion: Hunt for cold - into February]

After looking at this mornings runs if anything it's going the wrong way!

After a brief cold ridge both ECM and GFS bring in a strong zonal flow from Day 8 with intense high pressure over Iberia and deep lows around Iceland, this produces an ever increasing positive NAO which goes off the charts by the middle of next week.

Some cold zonality like yesterday is possible but the emphasis will be on mild and in increasingly unsettled weather if all this verifies.

I would imagine it will be March now before the PV weakens and to be honest winter 2022 is dead in the water.

Andy