Penrith Snow
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Posts posted by Penrith Snow
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My God, at 240 the ECM has a northern Scandinavian High of 1070mb that's exerts its influence across the whole of Europe.
OK it's not the coldest of easterlies but below average 850's are incoming and the whole Airmass would get colder with time.
Is the MetO MRF about to be vindicated?
Andy
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1 hour ago, KTtom said:
Excellent, realistic post Mark
Difficult to have a SOH at 6am after viewing the latest runs, its one of those days where the gfs has 384 hours of charts and the one with the most promise is T+0! If anything, going by the ens, the mild anomoly is growing as we head into December..
I am also suspect of teleconnections because if you look hard enough you will find patterns and effects in anything.
My Cat often goes moody when the MJO is in phrase 6-7, but that doesn't prove cause and effect!
Anyway, back to the models and height rises to the south seem likely as we head towards December, periods of intense zonality often end which high pressure building across Iberia.
Look on the bright side at least the US is having a great start to winter with record snow in NY state.
The wheels on the bus go round and round.
Andy
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Ecm and Gfs hint at rising pressure after day 10 but rising from the south not the north.
I fear any rise in pressure will just put us back to where we were last week with high pressure over the near continent and warm southerlies across the UK.
Andy
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6 hours ago, damianslaw said:
Last 9 winters have been by and large terrible for snow on the fells. Last decent one was 2012-13. Winter 14-15 brought episodic snow at times, 17-18 was poor despite quite cold conditions, winter 20-21 preety decent but amount not up to much.
All others shocking poor. Ah winter 09-10 I reminisce..
2013 snowier than 2018? I am surprised, 2013 was a bust in East Cumbria with the frequent easterlies delivering little lying snow.
2018 delivered several snowfalls in January and February even before the ‘Beast’ arrived which then brought the best blizzard conditions I have ever seen.
Just shows how localised a snowy winter can be.
Andy
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40 minutes ago, Mapantz said:
It's basically a "Fine Offset" station - same as Ecowitt, just different branding.
Thanks for that, so a mid range station really.
Will be interesting to see how the temperature shield copes with the strong Spanish sun.
I have my doubts.
Andy
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AMET have installed this weather station near my holiday home in Spain. Does anyone know what station it is?
Anyone got experience of its reliability?
Cheers
Andy
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Shaping up to be a typical NH winter, repeated cold plunges in the US, blocking high over Eastern Europe, south westerlies or Bartlett’s in the UK and the occasional Athens snowfall special
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Several stations recorded highs of nearly 19c in Cumbria this afternoon. Crazy for a location so far north.
This was the scene in Keswick at 2pm, temperature 18.4c
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2 hours ago, sundog said:
I think from about 95 - 2010 cold December's and Xmas periods were more common then say the previous 15 yrs 80- 94 and Certainly compared to nowadays. Its almost like for those 15 yrs we were slowly building up to something big and then Dec 2010 happened. After 2010 the bubble burst and cold December's and Xmas periods have become rare.
That is very true, despite the mildness of winters 1998 to 2008 I saw snow at Xmas (Christmas Eve, Christmas Day or Boxing Day) in 1998, 2000, 2001, 2004, 2005. Ok it never really settled to any great extent apart from 2000 but the Xmas period was characterised by cold weather nevertheless.
Christmas’s from 1982 to 1990 were completely snowless and often mild
Andy
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17 minutes ago, Sunny76 said:
For Feb 1991 to happen, you would still need some cold weather in December and January. 1990/91 was fairly cold for a number of weeks prior to the snow in Feb 1991.
If it’s mild until Christmas, I’ll take this winter as a bust.
First half of December 1990 was fairly cold including the Great Birmingham Blizzard on the 8th. January brought widespread snow to the north during the second week so like 2018 cold weather late in winter was preceded by snowy spells earlier on.
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12 minutes ago, carinthian said:
Morning all. Firstly regarding to the above post sent on Friday, the UKMO spot on with its renewed heavy rainfall track into SE England today. Some clarity now showing in the main model with a resurgence of the European high and it centre over Austria by this time next week. That keeps the British Isles in the milder flow for another week. There afterwards the team over here now quite confident that the high will then drift northwards with pressure starting to fall in Central Europe and more of a continental feed in the UK , so with temperatures starting to fall by Mid -month.
C
That's pretty much what the ECM is showing at 240hrs with the high migrating to North Scandinavia and very cold air on its Eastern flank sweeping down across the far east of Europe and western Russia.
Wouldn't be good for Ukraine.
Andy
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5 minutes ago, damianslaw said:
We've been here before, 1978, 1995, 2005, 2009, 2010 spring to mind. First half of Nov renowned for being mild.
I agree, however, the depth of upper warmth being projected is off the scale.
But, those high 850's may not translate to warmth at the surface and we could easily end up with cold, foggy conditions in low lying towns while the high Fells (above an inversion) have temperatures above 15c, I have experienced this several times in recent years.
Andy
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Mid November BBQ if this mornings ECM 240 is correct, the isobars over southern England trace all the way back to the central Sahara!
We have seen some crazy warm synoptics this autumn associated with the Euro block it never ends.
I remember autumn 1978 which was warm and dry right up to mid November, then suddenly on the 23rd the Iberian block collapsed and a cold front swept east across the UK, temperatures fell by 10c with frost and wintry showers, the rest as they say is history.
Andy
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10 hours ago, damianslaw said:
Like air frost, snowfall on the fells has not been a feature of Autumn so far.. lets see what November brings.
Helvellyn would need to be 6000 feet high to have received snow this month!
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A lot of talk about climate change preventing a cold winter but really?
Is the Earth really that much warmer in October 2022 than it was in October 2009 or 2010?
Just saying.....
Andy
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I think the problem we will face this winter will be the enormous semi permanent belt of high pressure over the Balkans, this feature becomes more prominent every year and maybe a linked to El Nina recently.
With high pressure over SE Europe you can forget easterlies and cold could only come from the north.
The Azores High is usually our nemesis in winter but this year the Balkan Blob could be the real killer.
Andy
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I am hoping to go to Chamonix in the French Alps next month to see some early snow but have just looked at the forecast and next Thursday the temperature at 3,000 feet is forecast to be 22c!
Won't be much snow at that temperature but I might get a tan.
Surely temperatures like that will be record breaking for late October and doesn't bode well for the coming winter
Andy
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On 18/10/2022 at 19:28, trickydicky said:
It’s maybe a north/south thing. Certainly April and to a lesser extent May can still be pretty frosty. A clear night at any point up to mid May here is likely to produce a frost, if only a very slight very early one in May. Frost in October has become pretty none existent. This time of year (late September/October/November/early December) seems to just merge into one long cloudy monotonous drag where you are waiting for winter but it just doesn’t seem to want to arrive. Low to mid teens by day and 6/7/8 at night in a kind of reoccurring dreary nightmare. I don’t like autumn in case it wasn’t clear!
I used to like autumn with its crisp days and promise of winter wonders to come even if it mostly failed to live up to expectations, but these days autumn seems more like a bad summer with endless days of southerly winds bringing cloud and warm rain.
That's why I decided several years ago that my autumn's in retirement would be spent in southern Spain where summer proper holds on till late November.
I strongly recommend it.
Andy
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In recent winters we have become used to big high pressure slugs over Europe but the one now growing over Europe is a monster!
Looking at the ECM beyond 144 and If you use the 1020mb isobar, one high pressure now extends from Northern Norway to within a few hundred miles of the equator, that's a block affecting a whole section of the globe. I don't think I have ever seen anything like it?
If this is a sign of the winter to come then we will be lucky to see frost never mind snow.
Andy
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Wow, look at that Euro high slug on the ECM 240, it stretches from Morocco to Finland, that must be 4000 miles!
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9 hours ago, damianslaw said:
In that transitional period between early autumn and deep Autumn. Deep Autumn I describe as period roughly 20 Oct to mid November, when we see rapid change in the feel of things, first air frosts likely for many, first cold feeling days, leaves peak in colour and break off quickly, light loss is signficant with clocks going back, sun loses all strength.
By mid Nov, the late autumn feeling sets in.. and preparation for winter and christmas takes over.
I find late October/ early Nov the most evocative time of the year, senses come alive. This is the last weekend of the year before that marked change in physche to one where the 'winter' head sets in, and usually the last one before you ditch the summer clothes/ light jacket attire. This is from a northern and Lakeland perspective.
Evocative, Really? I decided years ago that late October/ early November is the most depressing time of year in the UK, that's why I now spend this period in Southern Spain where 25c is the average daily max. Love cold and snow but I am too old for miserable, mild and wet.
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23 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:
Think I posted this earlier in the thread, ECM September Z500 anomalies for Dec, Jan and Feb, you can see they are quite different, with the Dec plot offering a decent Atlantic ridge, which is not there in the other two plots:
Personally, I find the usual 3 month average plots of the seasonal models very unhelpful, because they just mask differences like this.
It will be very interesting to see the October updates of this and all the other seasonal models.
Thanks for these, the Guardian article makes sense now with a cold December and mild February the preferred outcome.
Got to say the December anomaly is good with the highest relative pressure south of Iceland, just where we want it.
If we could get just one cold, frosty, snowy month I would be happy.
All eyes on the October update.
Andy
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OK, I am really confused now for The Guardian is reporting that its the ECM Seasonal model that is forecasting a cold early winter in Europe due to El Nina, yet the ECM seasonal forecasts I have seen indicate a mild winter across the whole continent.
I suppose a cold December could be over compensated by a mild February and January?
If correct I would be happy as I don't mind a mild late winter if early winter is cold, after last year New Years BBQ I would be glad of a cold Xmas period.
You can read the whole article free on the Guardian website.
Andy
Andy
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Expectations for this coming winter are now so low that a few wintry showers in January will be a cause for joy!
Not sure we can blame it all on El nina for as the author says in this article we are a long way from the source.
Strange that in a number of todays papers it is reported that the Government is worried about gas rationing after forecasts of an 'unusually cold, dry European winter', not sure what forecasts they are looking at!
Andy
Model Output Discussion - Deeper into Autumn
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
Who could forget 'That ECM' almost 10 years ago in December 2012.
It was a 12h run and it was snow armageddon, alas it was gone 12 hours later replaced by a slack chilly high pressure.
The reason I bring this up is tonight's ECM is so different to GFS at 240 that I refuse to be drawn in just yet.
We will see.
Andy