Penrith Snow
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Posts posted by Penrith Snow
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If your looking for spring don't view this mornings ECM, it's a washout from Start to finish and cooler as well as we go into April, indeed, by +240 we have a Scandy high and cold easterlies into Scotland.
Oh dear.
Andy
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This March reminds me of 2008 which was a wet, cool month with some snow. April was very poor also we had to wait till May for things to improve
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Quote of the day “Why are the British so worried about climate change? Any change in their climate can only be an improvement” John Daley 1959-2003 Australian Meteorologist. I think the guy had a point
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1 hour ago, Mair Snaw said:
Rooms to rent in North East Scotland.. cheap deals next 10 days free breakfast included.. book now..
..
Models all over the place in the run up to this spell of weather.. will it go south or north, will yhe cold hold? Im guessing we will find out by the end of the day. If the ecm has this correct against all the other models then it will be a major fail for all of them. Fingers crossed for everybody this coming week.
Put me down for one, I am a snow lover get me out of here!
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Just now, al78 said:
Looks like for my neck of the woods, the cold spell will be another example of cold dull clag rather than cold crisp sunny conditions. What is also apparent is the number of people who think it is going to snow down here in the SE when any snow looks to be across Scotland and northern England. It is a shame there are no significant costs to publishing nonsense in the media.
Well, at 500 feet in Central Cumbria no forecast is predicting any snow so its not just the south likely to miss out.
Unless you live in a log cabin above Aviemore this cold spell is turning into a dud.
Andy
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4 hours ago, cobbett said:
So after 100 pages on the other thread of seeing epic snow charts for the forthcoming week, i may just squeeze a quick dog walk with some falling snow. Can't wait
Yes 5 weeks of high pressure boredom followed by 10 days of keen anticipation and all for what?
3 frosty mornings and a wintry shower.
Winters in the UK are cursed.
Andy
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What destroyed our December cold spell and turned a potentially snowy Christmas into a mild and wet one?
It was a sudden rise in Iberian Heights just after mid month and you can see the same thing happening on the latest model output, no two scenarios are the same and in December the effect of Iberian Heights was to push the cold air north of Scotland but not that far.
This time we may see the boundary somewhere over the UK as we go towards mid March which is going to lead to some interesting weather
Iberian Heights are the curse of recent winters and are to blame for so much of our mild weather we see rather than an over active Atlantic
Andy
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43 minutes ago, Tamara said:
This is probably one of the highest quality assessments of the GSDM diagnostic working in real time that I have read and with well explained and argued prospects ahead (at least for NW Europe).
Very much a bookended season. This winter has seen the Hadley/polar cell dual that I talked about coming into winter back in November. December saw poleward momentum under a destabilised tropospheric lead into the lower stratosphere and thereafter equatorward fluxing took over as angular momentum fell in tandem with the westerly gyre of the upper stratosphere descending into the troposphere. This has largely prevailed through to the end of winter.
Now we see the reverse back in AAM fluxing at the same time as instability in the form of -ve zonal winds descends from the upper levels of the stratosphere c/o SSW into the troposphere- but this time creating a coupled relationship which will enable a more sustained phase of poleward momentum than the early winter with, as @Met4Cast points out (with no further embellishment required) angular momentum tendency surging very high. Make no mistake, when tropics (MJO) and extra tropics (GWO) phase in a harmonious momentum transport wind-flow signal such as at present, in tandem with a highly unstable trop/strat combination than a sustained phase of high impact weather conditions are in the offing.
For my part of southern Europe this significant pattern change will ironically bring to a (welcome) end to anomalously very below average temperatures which have been a nuisance at night for the Mediterranean planting garden. Both late January and now the end of February have seen repeated cold air advection patterns coming around the eastern and southern flanks of high pressure stuck over the UK/eastern Atlantic. With the return of the -ve NAO from the end of the coming weekend and through next week, sub tropical air will bring a quite noteworthy jump in temperatures into the upper teens and potentially low 20s in places - but also with bands of rain bringing wet conditions. So Spring begins much as to how the winter began.
As for the UK there is a similar parallel to how winter came in (nut with reverse trends in weather). Increasingly set to be on the polar side of the jet stream and depending precisely where the boundary of southerly tracking low pressure is, high impact weather events look odds on with significant snow events.
Agreed, here in SE Spain February was very cool with temps 3c below normal, yesterday was ridiculous cold despite the sunshine.
Minimum temperature forecast of 2c tonight and I live on the coast!
Can’t wait for a warm up next week
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4 minutes ago, CoventryWeather said:
One thing I'm noticing about model output is the warmth developing over N Africa, Spain and France towards mid March. I know it's nothing unusual for the time of year but maybe a sign of something warm later next month or April.
Well It needs to warm up a lot! temperatures here in SE Spain are currently 6c below normal and this is the 7th consecutive week of well below average temperatures.
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It’s no surprise but look at this snowfall trends map from ECM, UK clearly worst affected by declining snowfall and only Greece and Spain seeing an increase. You really couldn’t make it up
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14 hours ago, Eastips85 said:
One more week of this hideous snowless winter, the second in a row. Never before have I witnessed a couple of winters so inadequate at producing anything minutely wintery.
A few frosts that took one look at the rising sun and melted is as close as it got and being too close to that “warm” sea of ours soon beefed temperatures up to 7 degrees.
Thanks for the memories winter 22/23, unfortunately there weren’t none.
Bring on non event Yellow Thunderstorm Warning Season!How things have changed, growing up in Birmingham in the 70's and 80's I used to look with envy at East Anglia as it seemed to snow there every other day, any waft of an easterly and the area was snow bound.
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More model output this morning that resembles a Goose Chase, I am as optimistic as the next man but in late February a ECM at 240 having potential just doesn't cut it, if it was early December maybe, but any cold spell is now likely to be in mid March which too be honest is Too Little, Too Late.
Andy
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53 minutes ago, Aiden2012 said:
Sorry may be off topic but isn’t everybody like me sick of seeing good charts at day 10
been like it since the start of winter 
Start of winter?
More like start of 2019! We seem to be chasing good Fi for eternity.
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14 minutes ago, Rayth said:
Got my eye on the middle of March, going to 'the festival' at Cheltenham, could history repeat from 1978 and have an abandoned Gold Cup due to snow , I wish not (even though im a snow lover) On the face of these charts it didn't look so brutal
I remember th
15 minutes ago, Rayth said:Got my eye on the middle of March, going to 'the festival' at Cheltenham, could history repeat from 1978 and have an abandoned Gold Cup due to snow , I wish not (even though im a snow lover) On the face of these charts it didn't look so brutal
I remember that one 9cms of snow overnight in South Birmingham but it was gone by lunch time under spring sunshine and that is the problem will be face if the upcoming cold spell delays much longer
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Winter 1975 was much milder than 2023 but March 75 was a cold wintry month with plenty of snow events.
The Maundy Thursday blizzard in Birmingham on the 27th brought the City to a standstill with 16cms falling at Edgbaston during the afternoon, it was a classic Cheshire Gap streamer.
Snow widespread elsewhere between the 28th and 31st to give a very cold, wintry Easter, Kent badly affected on Easter Sunday.
Not sure what caused such a flip in early March that year but cold conditions persisted all spring culminating in the great June snowfall of 2nd June.
Great weather, unlike the dead zone weather of the last few weeks.
Andy
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My garden on the 16th January when I got lucky from a weak occlusion moving south from Scotland. As usual MetO were useless in forecasting the snow
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27 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:
We'll be on life support before the cold arrives lol!!!!
What a drain of a Winter, almost entirely non descript since Christmas. The SSW is now about to mature and I think the models are on the cusp of something special!
Surely another 48hours and the party will begin
Yes Uncle Bartys Party with pints of flat bitter or tins of mild, bottles of Stella in short supply
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10 minutes ago, Purga said:
A grim chart if ever there was one & at odds with the sligtly less ugly 00z
Wow, follow the 1025mb isobar back from London and its reaches close to the equator!
20c Vallentines day anyone?
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8 hours ago, Don said:
Could well be but always a bit of a bad sign when cold potential is pushed back!
It's not going to happen in the next few weeks so let's push it back till December!
My favourite month for cold
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9 hours ago, Met4Cast said:
It’s not supposed to be different? It’s about clearer public messaging around severe weather.
By naming depressions like we do Hurricanes places in the public mind the impression that our climate is now more severe which it isn't, Weather relate deaths were much higher in the 60's
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4 hours ago, Froze were the Days said:
True but I generally go by 61-90 series, many mild winters in that 91-2021 series...you don't really need a cold winter to be below that series you've compared with...
I agree about the 91 to 2021 series being far too mild but i think 61-90 which includes winters 63 and 79 is setting the bar too high.
I prefer 71-2000 as a better indicator of our long term climate pre GW
Andy
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GFS drops the cool zonality signal at day 10 only for ECM to pick it up.
The whole GFS run is awful with a limp euro high and mild southwesterlies throughout, at least ECM offers PM shots later which in my opinion is the only way out of the euro High elephant trap.
Who ever has the solution right we are rapidly running out of time and please don't mention 2013 or 2018, those winters were already fairly cold and completely different.
Andy
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19 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:
I don't know if this is the right time to complain or criticise, but surely the Gfs needs to be taken off the shelf and repaired until it's fit for some consistency? It's the fact it gives us the most wildest, outlandish, model output on just about every weather type in the medium range. It's totally useless as a medium term weather related computer model on most occasions.
The GFS Operational is bringing out outlandish charts normally only found from ensemble members.
I understand ensemble runs use different starting data hence their wild outcomes, is the Operational now using similar 'alternative' data?
Who knows
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Spring 2023 - Moans, Ramps & Chat
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
Come to Southern Spain Sean, after a cool February the sun came out on 1st March and hasn't gone back in since.
It's currently 26c in Cartagena (7c above average) with at least 10 more days of warm sunshine forecast.
The UK low pressure loss is Iberia's High Pressure gain.
Andy