Penrith Snow

January 22

10 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

"Background signals" haven't failed, though. They only take you so far and micro details are important, shorter range changes are important. There have been several rounds of strat warming and it seems the most recent one "reflected" if you like, this helped to draw the Canadian PV eastwards towards Siberia which flattened out what previously should have been a more promising pattern for cold.

Things change, forecasts evolve. Anyone expecting snow outside their front door or cold in a small area such as the UK purely based on teleconnections doesn't understand them, or is placing far too much emphasis on their ability to predict the micro pattern. Broadscale pattern they've done incredibly well this winter.

Unfortunately, short-term prospects that simply cannot be forecasted at range (such as the SSW) can disrupt and change expectations. That doesn't make the teleconnections/background drivers useless.

Micro Pattern? Your joking, these are hemisphere wide pressure anomalies!

The Iberian Hign is 4 thousand miles wide at least while the polar vortex is strong, these are not 'micro' developments

Andy

January 22

22 minutes ago, jules216 said:

There is very little point in putting that much interest in seasonal models anyway. If you go with previous experience with them in winter. Sadly these days there is a bunch of people, self aclaimed forecasters what seek and use every single bit of information that would support claims of deep freeze/cold. Them people share it with a snowball effect. Like I said before there are very few out there that would look at their own forecast, instead they just vanish and re-appear in November again etc. Like with this SSW, too much focus on the fact about zonal wind reversal/weakening and very little on detailed analysis as absolutely no one mentioned a very close analog of SSW,near split of winter 2006/07 what has a great resemblance with this winter warming. We could go a lot in details about which years are/were very good analogs for different reasons but they all had about the same or similar outcome. First being a very good signal for cold/blocked second half of november in to early december, then possibly another 2 potential spells of colder outbreaks dependant on timing of course but overall being very mild. This is general for most of Europe and looks like its not far off. Also there is a good chance that March will end up cold with a good signal of Euro troughing as usual timing is yet to be decided but a signal is there. We will re-visit this later once close to date.

Agreed,

However, the surprising thing is that tge MetO were taken in by all the cold signals as their MRF has been for colder than average conditions since early January and laughingly still is!

The MetO aren't known for cold ramping so some signals must have been clear, to me it demonstrates that all those teleconnections are useless as a forecasting tool, conditions over the next two weeks being the exact opposite to those predicted.

I would have had more success asking the Cat to point to the correct NH pressure anomaly for late January!

Andy

January 22

You have to admire the sheer size and intensity of the Bartlett on the latter stages of ECM, I estimate the Iberian High extends for 4 thousand miles from the Bay of Biscay to the Red Sea, rarely have I seen such a beast. Anyone that doubts that the sub tropical Hadley Cell has expanded needs to look at this.

Surely the MetO will change its MRF soon as I see no chance of sustained cold till late February, I think a February like 1998 (also a strong El Nino winter) is coming up and I would bet my pension on London recording 16c soon.

I am off to Southern Spain next weekend and under that colossal Bartlett I I think I will need my shorts.

Andy

January 21

Wow, even in recent winters I have rarely seen such a pure unrelenting Bartlett set up, the Iberia High is strong and massive strecting thousands of miles, as they said about the Xenomorph in Alien 'you have to admire its pure evil'.

I suspect the way out of this is a gradual transition to cold zonality as shown on ECM 240 then hope for Atlantic ridges as the Iberian High migrates South then west, IMO the chances of a Scandy High in early February are zero.

Much has been said about El Nino winters being back loaded? Not sure I agree, this El Nino has been strong like 1998 and 2016, both had February's that were mild, indeed if you check out the charts for February 1998 they are very similar to this mornings FI.

It was in February 1998 that the late Paul Bartlett christened the 'Bartlett High' following its persistence that month, it took till late February that year for the High to retreat and cold north westerlies on the 28ty gave snow in many northern areas.

Andy

January 16

Snow really setting in here after a slow start, 2cms lying, temp -1.5c so it's dry snow.

Who would think the North West would do best from a Northerly!

Great day ahead.

Andy

January 15

52 minutes ago, Dark Horse said:

I used to have a cat she was called Samantha but unfortunately she passed away but at a good age, I still miss her. All black she was, lovely cat. I don't want to get another and get attached again.

No please don't give up on a cat, there are hundreds out there desperate for a home, you will love a new cat almost as much as Samantha who will be looking down happy that a new cat is in your life.

Andy

January 13

38 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Not often we can say the south coast is the e sweet spot for snow this week (away from Scotland )

Could Cumbria really be so lucky?

January 12

Can't believe I have lost 2 weeks of my life counting down to next weeks 4 day toppler.

Last weekend the talk was of severe sustained cold and EC 4 weeker that predicted blocking well into February, well the block is there alright its just over Iberia with Uncle Barty laughing his rocks off.

Meanwhile the US go into a 40 state mega freeze just like every winter, all we need now is a Athens Snowfall Special and we will have a full set.

You couldn't make it up, the UK is cursed for winter weather so glad I am off to Southern Spain for 3 months in early Feb and can enjoy the winter sun under Barty's fat behind.

Andy

January 12

Wow guys do you ever sleep?

It's very satisfying and unusual to see last minute upgrades (Hope I don't jinx it) usually UKcold spells are like the Grand National favourite that falls at the last fence, so many times the charts implode at +96.

If the very cold Northerly comes off it will be Hats Off to the MetO model that never wavered unlike GFS and at times ECM that had wobbles.

Over to the midnight runs and let's see how far south we can bring the -10c uppers.

Andy

January 11

I would rather cold, dry and long than cold, snowy and short. I never saw a single flake during the December 2022 cold spell but the run of su ny Ice days and -10c temperatures at night made up for it.

I still think features will pop up next week just as they did for the south in 2022, Southerners moan but they have enjoyed the best snow event since 2018 just 13 months ago.

Andy

January 11

1 hour ago, Harveyslugger said:

Ur more knowledgeable than me surely you know disturbances will pop up even 24hrs before the event. And remember how wrong the last SE snow models predicted some showers but in reality it was a mass of snow.not heavy snow I know.but goes to show models can get these features wrong even at a nowcast situation.so I expect many features to pop up in the closer time frame

Absolutely, during the early December cold spell Cumbria was forecast to be completely dry for the duration, in the end the Lake District got 30cms - 40cms with 5cms - 10cms further east in the County.

Get the cold in first, then...

Andy

January 10

3 hours ago, Bristawl Si said:

Partly, at least

Topography

A few miles north of the M4, from near here i.e. Old Sodbury, near the Bath M4 junction right along to past the Swindon junctions, we have the start of the Cotswolds or its escarpment.

Example: Heights go from 80m ASL in Yate, for example, to 150m plus, a mile or so 'up the road' In Old Sodbury. This happens all the way along the M4 to past Swindon.

Further East, past Reading, north of the M4, is the Chilterns, highest point 260m ASL.

It's an odd fact that at the height of the last glaciation the main Scandinavian Ice Sheet covered Britain right down to a line from the Bristol Channel to Thames Estury, (now the M4 corridor) the southern half of England below this line remained free of ice and was tundra instead.

Coincidence I know but interesting nevertheless

Andy

January 8

For those of us old enough to remember it is striking the similarities between today's model runs and the first week in December 1981.

Then as now a large uk high migrated towards Greenland with very cold Northerly winds pushed southwards, in 1981 a slider low running SE along the base of the cold front brought heavy snow to Central and Southern England on the 8th with London paralysed during the morning rush hour.

The previous day had been relatively mild but the low quickly pulled in the very cold air mass and rain rapidly turned to snow during the early hours.

The Greenland High weaked slowly over the next two weeks but the UK remained to the north of the Jet and it remained cold and snowy until the New Year

December 1981 is now overshadowed by 2010 but in many ways it was more snowy.

Remarkable synoptics today not seen for many years.

Andy

January 8

43 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

Some won’t be happy until we see a return to snowball earth and even then I’m sure they’d find a reason to complain.

Great modelling across the board this morning, the GEFS extend the cold (using -5C isotherm as the guide) another day or two with a tighter clustering of cold members.

Details chop and change but the broad direction of travel remains the same. The GEM & UKMO are pick of the bunch for me.

If Netweather existed 20,000 years ago some members would be complaining about how thin the glaciers were south of the M4 corridor compared to up north!

January 8

The models seem to tilt the flow from straight Northerly to North Westerly in FI while maintaining the depth of cold.

This is good news for most of us as a straight Northerly is usually dry unless you live near the beach in Scarborough, North Westerlies push precipitation much further inland.

The whole evolution is similar to the pre Christmas cold spell in December 2009.

Andy

January 7

2 minutes ago, Purga said:

Looking much better this run. Fingers crossed

I love the kink in the isobar over Cumbria

January 7

"Houston we have a problem"

You don't have to be a depressed pessimist to see things are trending the wrong way, the ENS are underwhelming and the ECM op a shadow of what was promised a few days ago.

Polish it as much as you want but you won't make the models shine, yes still plenty of time for upgrades as the cold spell is still a week away but we need to see the trend reverse soon.

If it is to go TU then I would rather it be now than at +72 which has happened in the past.

People look at upstream developments in the Pacific but for me it's Iberian Heights that's the issue, the drought in Spain is now serious and unprecedented with little sign of a change anytime soon.

Andy

January 7

2 hours ago, Met4Cast said:

We've certainly come along way from this run just 2 days ago..

But.. we're still not quite done yet. It's a shame so much uncertainty has been injected into the modelling because things were counting down so well but I guess it wouldn't be a cold UK weather chase without some sort of spanner being thrown in somewhere along the lines. We need to watch the block across Greenland and hope modelling has just gone too far in the opposite direction with underplaying it, often is the case.

We're they really counting down well?

All the great charts we're well in to FI, I never saw any good charts within +168 which really is the limit of model prediction in non zonal set ups.

We call it FI for a reason, it's all a fantasy until +144 and that's pushing it.

I am still concerned about Iberian Heights and the endless expansion of the sub tropical Hadley Cell, for the UK its a cold killer.

Andy

January 4

25 minutes ago, Chasbrown said:

I remember John Kettley on the weather for farmers on Sunday 11th 1987. Was a stunning forecast. Despite trawling YouTube I've never found it. Exciting times ahead.

It was Ian McCaskill presenting it not John, it’s on You Tube.

His classic line is “the only thing bright about this forecast is my tie”

Classic McCaskill

Andy

January 4

53 minutes ago, carinthian said:

Morning all. Looks like the UKMO chart below brings in the colder air southwestwards across The British Isles on Saturday quite a bit quicker than shown this time yesterday. Thinking more upgrades to come from todays later outputs? Longer term, nice looking Mid- winter charts on offer. However, for the time being think we need to concentrate on keeping the high north for the next 144 hours or so and then hopefully see a prolonged cold spell develop. Snow charts from GFS shown this morning ( 50cm on Dartmoor) that far out , nay impossible to verify but looks exciting.

Looking good though for cold winter fans. You deserve a lucky break !

C

Upgrade indeed, yesterday the 528dam line was across NE Scotland, today it covers most of the UK.

Max of only 3c here on Saturday according to Met Office app sounds about right, big drop from the recent 10c highs.

Great morning guys

Andy

January 3

41 minutes ago, SnowBorder said:

Was that the infamous Kettley Easterly?

No, the Kettley failed Easterly was in early February 2001. Epic disaster that was in the early days of internet weather watching.

it’s been downhill since....

Andy

January 3

It's good practice to compare the countdown to previous cold spells with this potential one as others have done with 2010.

For me this feels more like 2018 as that cold spell was preceeded by a lengthy UK high which then moved northwards allowing very cold easterlies to spread West.

So did it countdown straight forward from FI? Absolutely not! Despite confident MetO MRFs the models wobbled many times and it was only at +120 were we sure the cold spell was nailed, at 10 days out the models were flipping more times than a McDonald's Burger.

For now the trend for an intense Greenland High at day 10 is clear, that's as much as we can expect.

Andy

January 1

3 hours ago, Rob 79812010 said:

Do you know why Ambleside area gets so much given its elevation?? Beginning Dec 23 I noticed northern lakes didn't get as much. There's a science am assuming

It's the same reason Ambleside gets so much rain, it's surrounded on all sides by mountains which enhance any precipitation including snow, Ambleside isn't high but often heavy rain will turn to snow in winter purely down to evaporation cooling. Many times Penrith gets light sleet while Ambleside receives heavy snow despite Penrith being higher elevation. It has driven me mad for years!

With regard to the December 2023 event that resulted from a stationary line of showers across the southern Lakes from the Irish Sea, this is also a frequent occurrence but am at a loss as to why this is.

North and East Cumbria do much better for snow in easterly set ups, in January 1963 snow lay on the ground for only 3 days in Ambleside compared to 29 days in Penrith.

Andy

January 1

On 19/12/2023 at 20:48, damianslaw said:

Year I was born, so no memories, but I believe a blizzard hit here New Years Eve and New Years Day. Not seen anything like that at New Year since, though New Years Eve 96 brought blizzard showers, but not frontal.

Can imagine how interesting 78 was seeing the jet sink further and further south...

It was New Years day 1979, bitter but mostly dry easterly winds across Cumbria on New Years Eve became a slack westerly on New Years Day as a minor through developed over Ireland, the air was still very cold and snow showers formed over the Irish Sea during the morning and pushed inland during the afternoon merging to give hours of heavy snow.

The whole of NW England was affected from Carlisle to Manchester, in Penrith 17cms fell with 25cms at Shap, as usual in such set ups the Southern Lakes saw the heaviest snow with 40cms in the Ambleside and Coniston area.

Manchester was brought to a standstill by a 16cms fall and both Manchester and Liverpool airports were closed.

A friend of mine spent the night in her car on the M6 near Charnock Richard the motorway being completely blocked for hours.

1978/79 is the true benchmark winter.

Andy

December 31, 2023

A SSW could have screwed up a favourable trop set up, remember the SSW on 1st January 2019, it was followed by forecasts of 0f (-18c) temperatures in February, we got 18c alright but it was plus 18c not minus!

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