Penrith Snow
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Posts posted by Penrith Snow
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British winters 21st Century: 7 weeks of zonality wind and rain, 5 weeks of Bartlett anticyclonic gloom and one week of frost and snow to remind you of what could have been
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Better charts this morning but yesterday's were so bad you literally couldn't get any worse.
Let's hope it's a new trend, we need to collapse those Iberian Heights
Andy
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16 minutes ago, nick sussex said:
I’ve seen more excitement at a WI bake sale !
The ECM refuses to throw a few scraps to coldies and delivers utter crud .
The sole survivors of the Nostromo , the GFS and the GEM cat go into the cryochambers and wait to be discovered.
Meanwhile the Alien ECM deservedly gets blasted into outer space .
Anyhow after a more interesting start to the evening things turned ugly after the UKMO and the ECM sent coldies into a Falling Down scenario.
Theres only so much a long suffering UK coldie can take !
Apologies for the film analogies . They’re my go to when I can’t find a lot of excitement in the models .
Unless we can see Ripley and Jonesy more on the money then expect more of them !
We can but hope the forecast MJO into phase 1 can shuffle the pack and deal us a full house or better and not two stingy pairs .
Better still we checkmate the PV . Talking of which my series pick to indulge in whilst we’re waiting for the Day After Tomorrow is the Queens Gambit , marvelous even if you don’t like Chess .
Adios for now ....
This is Andy, last surviving member of the Netweather Winter 24 signing off.......
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12 minutes ago, sheikhy said:
Im calling this now!!!im gona say gfs is wrong!!!sorry but for me ecm is the one to follow always has been!!the fact that the changes start as early as 96 hours west of greenland/newfoundland on ecm helps its cause aswell!!!we can give it one last go on the 12zs but ecm shall need a massive shift early on!!ukmo is a middle ground but i think its been a pathetic model over the last few years so dont really follow it lol except for amusement!!
December 2012 'That ECM Run'
Have never forgiven ECM for that debacle, it is however still the most accurate model.
Andy
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I would place it on the fence post.
To keep it dry I would buy a cheap Bird Box and drill loads of holes in it which will allow easy circulation of air while keeping the sensor dry.
Putting tbe sensor in a plastic bag is a no no as it will always read too high at night.
Andy
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Another shocking August day, max 16c, cold wind and frequent showers, only redeeming feature was it wasn't as bad as yesterday's 13c and heavy rain. Britain, the land of Brexit, Bartletts and Bad summers
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14 minutes ago, IPredictASnowStorm said:
I don’t mind it not being baking hot I just can’t the dull cloud and rain , 20c and sunny would be good enough but we’re not even getting that
Imagine what it's like up north!
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I remember 1978 as a great year, after a cool spring summer was a washout with some remarkably low temperatures in the first half of July, autumn was warmer than average but it was too late for real heat then. Indeed the highest temperature I recorded in South Birmingham that year was 25c and that was just one day. Above average temperatures continued into November but on the 22nd the weather switched to a cold northerly heralding one of the great snowy winters of the 20th Century. Proper UK weather.
Andy
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I find most weather station thermometers read too high in very sunny conditions as they don't have Stephenson screen type sunlight protection ie: double vents.
It's not ideal but I find putting the thermometer in the shade near (but not on) a North facing fence or wall gives better readings particularly in summer. In winter however this can give a lower max on a sunny day but its a reasonable trade off.
Andy
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12 hours ago, damianslaw said:
Yes much of the med having a very poor spell at present, and no change for the foreseeable. Seems odd how hot is was a few weeks back south Spain, now significantly below average. I think a blessing though, need the rain and the cooler air and wet ground should in theory temper silly high temps.
Yes March and April were remarkable at my holiday home in SE Spain and I returned to Penrith last week just in time for improved weather here, I am rarely that lucky with the weather!
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33 minutes ago, damianslaw said:
I dare not mention but I will it is currently dry, sunny here in the Lake District, temps not sure. In easterly and northerly airstreams which are most common now hence the poor day in the south and east, the north and west often does very well. Indeed April and May often only months the NW can be warmer sunnier and drier than the south and east.
Come the summer the tables will turn as they often do!
It was a nice morning in Penrith but cloud has moved in and temperature dropped back to 13c, not great for May so electric fire back on, at least the cat is happy!
Andy
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Flew from Alicante to Manchester today after 3 months in Spain and Wow what a difference, after one of its warmer springs on record with highs approaching 30c, South East Spain is extremely dry with a landscape more like August.
Landed in Manchester and it wasn't a bad day for late November! It felt freezing
with a dark sky and rain, the landscape in contrast to Alicante was lush and green, bordering on water logged. Manchester is always wetter and cooler than Alicante of course but this year that 2 hour flight is like going to another planet.
Andy
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While this spring has been poor it’s nothing compared to 1979 which was horrendous if you like a touch of warmth.
After a mild, wet start Mar h 1979 was cold and snowy, heavy snow swept north mid month with 15cms lying in Birmingham and 30cms in Durham, further snowfalls occurred over the next 2 weeks with frequent frost.
April was a dull, cool month similar to this year with neither warm or notable cold spells but mean temperatures were below average.
Early May brought a remarkable cold spell with frequent snowfalls across the uk. In Birmingham a maximum temperature of 4c on the 1st was followed by an evening snowfall that gave a depth of 6cms at Birmingham airport on the morning of the 2nd. The Lake District was snow covered down to sea level in the 4th.
The rest of May was cool and unsettled and it was June before most places reached 20c
Thats what I call a cold, miserable spring!
Andy
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14 hours ago, Summer8906 said:
... and the nights will be drawing in, no thanks
But as many have said, I'm not sure the outlook is that bleak. Just changeable and "mixed", with some decent days at times. The worst weather seems to be this weekend - sadly, given what's going on.
In Cumbria 'mixed' means 7 hours of rain and 15 minutes sun in the evening just before dusk.
No thanks mate
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Returning to the UK next week after 3 months in Southern Spain and what awaits me? Truly dreadful weather, May is usually good in the Lake District but the Iberia High has become semi permanent tilting the jet stream into Northern Europe
Great Britain, the land of Brexit, Bartletts and Bad Summers!
Depressing
Andy
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3 minutes ago, Summer8906 said:
Not even sure you'd have to go that far!
How about a combination of June 2012, July 2007 and August 2008 for sheer summer horror?
Or even the entire summers of 1954 and 1956, which are "legendary" for their sheer awfulness...
They used to call 1954 the year without a summer. According to Philip Eden there was only one day during the entire summer that the whole of the UK was free of weather fronts.
That’s bad!
By way of compensation winter 1954 was snowy and winter 1955 very snowy
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1 hour ago, Summer8906 said:
Wasn't 1953 famously cold and wet?
I'm tempted to say the weather gods are not royalists, what with the horrendous Diamond Jubilee weekend in 2012, the rather dull unsettled Golden Jubilee weekend in 2002, and the cold and wet Silver Jubilee in 1977(I have very few weather memories of 1977 but the Jubilee day is one I do remember).
In his 1996 book Weatherwise Phillip Eden tells how's the Queens Coronation in June 1953 was accompanied by a cold wet Northerly wind, in the Lake District snow lay down to 1500 feet on Skiddaw during the morning.
I remember 1977 as well, it was cold, wet and miserable, even worse than 2012.
God save the King!
Andy
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32 minutes ago, al78 said:
At least Shetland and the Scottish highlands has beautiful scenery to compensate, and when northern blocking is in progress it can have some of the best weather in the UK.
Andy they have just had a nice snowy winter unlike the 2 day wonder the rest of us had
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Can't decide which is worse a cold wet bank holiday or a warm, sunny one with young and not so young men sitting outside pubs getting drunk in the sunshine then singing football songs in the street, why can't the Brits enjoy the sun in civilised way like the French or Spanish.
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2 hours ago, SunSean said:
March 2023 redux next week. No sun, 100% cloud, lots of rain but this time with added gale force winds. Exactly what you want to see in April....
Swear to god, May to September better be almost perfect and settled with lots of sunshine because we're getting shafted so far this year.
Wow and your in Southend one of the driest , sunniest parts of the Country, God knows what it's like back home in Cumbria then!
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Yes it was 27th March 1975 when after a snowless winter the West Midlands was hit by heavy snowfalls that brought the City of Birmingham to a standstill.
It was a classic Cheshire GAP streamer that brought the snow as showers that formed over the Irish Sea in the morning were funnelled down the Cheshire Gap merging into long spells of snow across the West Midlands during in afternoon.
In Birmingham City Centre 16cms of snow fell between 1pm and 6pm coinciding with rush hour and getaway Easter traffic, the M6 became chocked by 20 miles of stationary traffic while the airport was closed.
Looking at the Synoptic chart for that day shows a brisk northerly although nothing severe, uppers were around -6c with surface temperatures outside the snow area near 5c, it seems likely that solar heating enhanced the shower activity around midday adding extra energy and moisture to the snow showers coming in from the Irish Sea.
Looking at this mornings GFS, a similar northerly is being modellec for early April.
Andy
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The GFS is a fantastic run IF it was January with a perfect channel low at day 10.
However, with the season advancing it will be cold rain for most although by day 12 the northerly is potent and snow would be widespread.
All FI of course but at the moment spring is a long way off.
Andy
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Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
This early winter reminds me very much of winter 1997/98. That was an El Niño winter with a cool November followed by a wintry start to December with frost and snow.
However, mild weather dominated from 4th December and continued throughout the winter apart from some cold zonality in early January.
Sounds familiar?
Andy