[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

Some big snowfalls for Scotland then the Alps coming up with lots of cold rain for the rest of us.

Thank God this awful grey warmth is coming to an end, who wants a black spring in February

Andy

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

The annoying thing is that we may see charts in early March that would of produced snow in early February but will just be cold rain as 850's won't be cold enough. High SSTs for the time of year won't help either.

[Winter 2023/24 - A Post Mortem]

 CryoraptorA303 Good a analysis.

Pattern matching isn't perfect at all but IMO it's more useful than the mumbo jumbo of the MJO etc, and yes I have read the papers.

Put it this way, pattern matching clearly pointed to a very mild February, I said as much in  late January but the new so called signals pointed to extensive northern blocking and a cold month, even the MetO were taken in.

It was never going to happen! December and January were very similar to other strong El Nino winters so the outcome for February was inevitable, add to that the fact that mild December's and January's are nearly always followed by a mild February, 1983 is a rare exception.

The fact that other 'signals' got it so badly wrong goes to prove how unreliable they are as a forecasting tool, yet we still hear evangelist going on about MJO phases, AAM and the dreaded mountain torque, give it a rest guys or at least explain why it went so wrong while good old fashion pattern matching had February spot on.

I respect people who research new areas in meteorology but some humility would be welcome.

Andy

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

If you don't like wet weather don't look at this mornings GFS, it relentlessly wet up north and these conditions spread south next week to give a soaking FI everywhere with slow moving low pressure systems.

ECM is similar with both models bringing in a cool North westerly next week so we may get snow on high ground in Scotland and a slight frost further south.

It's terrible output to finish off a terrible winter with not even a sign of an early spring to make up for it, it's no stop cloud and rain.

I remember the mild winters of the mid 70's but they were nothing compared to this years car crash, even in 1974/75 which was a very mild winter for its time the weather was often bright and dry with few gales, January 1975 brought widespread snow on the 24th and February was mild but benign. Then March brought some great weather with frequent very cold easterly and northerly winds, widespread frost and heavy snowfalls which continued well into April, May was unusually cold, frosty but sunny, while June brought freak snow on the 2nd then a 3 week heatwave.

The weather in other words was 'interesting', I find nothing interesting about mild, sunless southwesterlies that persist for weeks on end, maybe that's just me

Andy

[Winter 2023/24 - A Post Mortem]

 sundog indeed,we can only look back with envy at our parents time when weather charts looked like this.

What a shame Netweather wasn't around to appreciate it.

Andy

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

 bluearmy I have been impressed with GFS full stop, repeatedly terminating new born cold spells while ECM always pointed to a 1979 revisit.

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

Looks like Andy's Feb 98 Arctic North Westerly revisit is coming into view.

Pattern matching is limited but has its uses and I think a cold spell from the North is a good bet for late February.

How cold and snowy is up for grabs but Shetlanders who have had a good winter anyway are in for more fun.

Andy

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

I am here in Southern Spain sitting under Barty's big behind so to speak and the weather is glorious, 24c today and low 20's forecast all week (average 17c) locals say they have never known such a warm, dry winter so lacking in rain and we all know the reason  for that!

This month is shaping up very much like February 1998 but interestingly that ended with a notable Arctic North Westerly which brought snow well south, I remember leaving the cinema in Penrith after watching Titanic to a blizzard outside, tonight's output and the ENS hint at a cold end to the month which would likely be from the North West. I just don't see any Northern blocking any time soon despite the SSW which again does more harm than good.

I think a cold North Westerly is a credible outcome possibly leading to cold zonality in early March, winter seems a long way off but oddly so does spring.

Andy

 

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

When considering the possibility of cold weather in late February have a look at the MetO 120 hour fax chart.

The 528dam line (often referred to as the low level snow line) stretches from Newfoundland up to Southern Greenland, through Central Iceland across to Northern Norway, down through Finland then south through Poland towards the Black Sea.

Everywhere south and west of this line is not going to see any low level snow, that represents 85% of the Atlantic/European sector!

Such an expanse of mild air and northwards location of the 528dam line is normally found after late March at the earliest, normally you would see the line across mid or low latitudes in at least one area of Europe or the Atlantic.

Even by modern standards the extent of mild air in the European/Atlantic area of the globe is as remarkable as it is depressing.

Andy

[Winter 2023/24 - A Post Mortem]

 trickydicky Yes in Northeen Scotland the winter has been ok with frequently northerly outbreaks, in northern England it's been poor but with some snowfall and overall better then 2020, 2019, 2017,2014,2007.

However, Midlands southwards its been up there with the worst, even Birmingham which lies above 450 feet has had literally no snow, that's bad for such a inland relatively high location.

Southern England had no chance.

Awful

Andy

[Winter 2023/24 - A Post Mortem]

 North-Easterly Blast  Good analysis, despite its limitations I prefer historical pattern matching to MJO naval gazing but that's just my opinion.

Andy

[Winter 2023/24 - A Post Mortem]

It's probably down to higher SSTs but another negative aspect of recent winters are the luke warm northerlies which fail to deliver wintry conditions even in the North.

Look at this chart for February 1969, midday temperatures were below freezing from the Midlands North with -3c at Manchester airport and -7c at Aberdeen accompanied by a bitter North wind.

An area of heavy snow swept South on these bitter winds arriving in London during the early evening, by the following morning the whole of the UK was snow covered apart from a few areas near the south coast.

Such conditions now would have the media in melt down.

We can only dream.

Andy

[Winter 2023/24 - A Post Mortem]

 MattH I for one do not discount new research in meteorology or that teleconnections exist.

However, in science I was always taught that  you have to run an experiment several times with the same outcome to be sure the experiment was a success with cause and effect established.

Over the past few years many professional and amateur meteorologist have developed pet theories then promoted these like they are certainties when in reality the cause and effect correlation is close to 50% chance.

It's a problem throughout climate science, people jumping on unproven theories then promoting them as fact in order I  suspect to forward their own standing in the scientific community.

The days of rigid scientific research, in depth self doubt and continuous assessment seem to have gone.

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

 blizzard81 or to quote Eric Morecambe, the models are 'playing all the right notes but not necessarily in the right order'!   

[Winter 2023/24 - A Post Mortem]

It's good to see I am not the only one who has given up on some of the teleconnections to gauge future synoptic developments.

It's human nature to try and find order in chaos but 9 times out of 10 It's a mirage particularly with weather and climate which is the ultimate chaotic system.

What's struck me this year has been the MetO persistently calling cold conditions in the medium term, only now after 6 weeks are they dropping the idea, the MetO rarely cold ramp so they too must have been taken in by these same drivers, last Tuesday I watched the excellent YouTube deep dive and the Met were unsure about the track of Thursdays low but very confident of cold, wintry weather to follow into next week. Oh dear is that bust! 

My own feeling is that this winter was never going to be cold because of the strong El Nino which historically gives wet mild winters in Europe, add to the the expansion of the Hadley Cell to create massive Iberian Heights and its a wonder we had any cold weather at all.

Thirdly, mild December's and January's are rarely followed by a cold February so I always thought February would be El Nino mild, AKA 1998.

I still think despite CC cold winters are possible but I will be looking for the displacement South of the Iberian High, a neutral ENSO and a cooler preceeding summer/autumn (like 2009 and 2010).

What I won't be doing is gazing at the MJO, MMA and other clever sounding acronyms which as Nick said has become the product of Snake Oil sales.

Andy

 

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

 syed2878 Yes it was GFS that first spotted the collapse in this weekends cold spell.

when GFS first forecasted that todays low north for earlier this week everyone said it must be wrong, it wasn't.

If every ECM 10 day chart this winter had verified it would have rivalled 1963! Instead we are looking at a winter to rival 1998.

Appalling.

Andy

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

 Daniel* that's a really interesting graph for Finland and I am surprised how many months in the last 14 years have been colder than average.

I suspect a similar graph for London would show far fewer cold months.

It shows that warming in the UK is racing ahead of other countries, due I think to persistent Iberian Heights which act as a block to UK cold weather in any season.

Andy

[Model banter and emotions]

 weathercold Agreed Nick, their is far too much emphasis these days on so called background signals with clever sounding AAM's and MJO's all of which didn't exist a decade ago and don't get me started on Mountain Torque!

There are few teleconnections that truly affect the UK climate but a strong El Nino is one of them and you only had to look at 1998 and 2016 to see what this winter had in store.

As for the models GFS has led the way recently, accurately pushing tomorrow's low North rather than East and I suspect GFS has the correct solution going forward with any blocking high aligning to bring southerly winds and early warmth to western Europe

After this miserable non winter that surely will be welcome.

Andy

[Model banter and emotions]

 nick sussex if something doesn't change soon it will be Netweathers last surviving members of Winter 2024 signing off

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

TBH I am not expecting much from  this coming cold spell, its nighly unusual for a mild, cyclonic December and January to be followed by a cold, wintry February.

2005 was an exception and even that was muted.

MRF models and indeed the MetO have been predicting cold weather in 10 days time since the New Year and it never seems to arrive in any meaningful way, I can't see mid February being any different.

Andy

 

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

Big step back from cold this morning with little in the way of northern blocking in any of the output.

Any chance of cold is dependant on the movement and location of shortwave and wedges which is precarious to say the least.

Our big friend Barty sits around waiting for spring which IMO prevents any meaningful cold in the medium term, the persistence and intensity of the Iberian High is remarkable, I am in SE Spain at the moment and the landscape is bone dry and looks more like late August than late January, the nearby airport has recorded only 4.5mm of rain since mid November and the nationwide drought in Spain is now a major issue.

Until Uncle Barty gets bored and goes back home to North Africa Spain will stay dry and the UK remain snowless, chase the MJO if you like but the anomalous Iberian High is driving Europe's weather.

Andy

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

Some great debate in here today, I have learnt a lot.

We might not all agree but it’s been great to read informed post without anyone point scoring.

I am pleased the mods allowed this as it was a little off topic but important nevertheless 

Andy

[Model discussion highlights]

I a  not sure Singularity is correct about the Iberien High being a response not a cause, its chicken and egg.

Check out a 100 years of historical data pre 1988 and you won't find such a massive and persistent Iberain/Mediterranean High as we see modelled now, it just didn't happen and of course the current persistant Bartlett is only the latest in a long line since the 1999's.

IMO, the Iberian High dominance is due to the expansion of the sub tropical Hadley Cell in response to a warming world, the expanse forces the Jet Stream north preventing the PV leaving its natural home ie Greenland, it happens occasionally of course like last week but any change is pushing againt the new normal and is quickly crushed.

This I feel is the over riding factor and overwhelmes other natural signals that might encourage Northern Blocking, hence the late January early February forecast debacle.

Watch the MJO if you like but it will make little difference 

Andy

Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99814-model-output-discussion-22nd-jan-2024-onwards/?do=findComment&comment=5022897

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

45 minutes ago, TEITS said:

Very good post and very difficult to argue against.

Only positive is the models will get better because they cannot get any worse from a coldies perspective.

Indeed, just been checking historical charts since 2000 and while persistent Bartletts are frequent (as we all know)  the size and extent of the current Iberian/Mediterranean High is off the scale.

This is why I have now lost faith in using teleconnections as a forecasting tool, two weeks ago every signal pointed to HLB in late January resulting in great EC 4 weekers and an usually positive MetO MRF, it appears they all couldn't have been more wrong.

And before anyone says I am only looking at UK centred micro developments I am not, the whole NH profile is the exact opposite of those the teleconnections had indicated.

In science when you run an experiment and the outcome isn't what you expected you go back to the drawing board not run it again and again hoping for a different result.

Andy

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

I a  not sure Singularity is correct about the Iberien High being a response not a cause, its chicken and egg.

Check out a 100 years of historical data pre 1988 and you won't find such a massive and persistent Iberain/Mediterranean High as we see modelled now, it just didn't happen and of course the current persistant Bartlett is only the latest in a long line since the 1999's.

IMO, the Iberian High dominance is due to the expansion of the sub tropical Hadley Cell in response to a warming world, the expanse forces the Jet Stream north preventing the PV leaving its natural home ie Greenland, it happens occasionally of course like last week but any change is pushing againt the new normal and is quickly crushed.

This I feel is the over riding factor and overwhelmes other natural signals that might encourage Northern Blocking, hence the late January early February forecast debacle.

Watch the MJO if you like but it will make little difference 

Andy