Penrith Snow
-
Posts
856 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Forums
Blogs
Gallery
Events
Learn About Weather and Meteorology
Community guides
Posts posted by Penrith Snow
-
-
To be honest the GFS easterly would have been half baked anyway with cold, dreary grey skies and snow grains if your lucky.
The only route to Cold is a collapse in the UK high followed by a short spell of zonality then a transfer of the PV to Scandinavia and Cold from the north west or north just like December and January
A notable easterly spell this winter is dead in the water.
Andy
-
4
-
-
-
11 minutes ago, IDO said:
The models are struggling at the moment, so best wait for some clarity in the next 24 hours. Both ECM and GFS ops running for several runs at opposite ends of the spectrum for 850s, and notably the ECM op becoming an outlier earlier in its runs. The 0z for example in London:
ECM showing mild outliers and GFS op in the coldest, representing a small cluster. It seems that there are conflicting background signals that need to be resolved.
GFS record with failed easterly's is the stuff of legends, so I remain pessimistic it has the correct solution, but we will see...
Historically it has been ECM that gave Ghost Easterlies, who can forget That ECM from 2012?
GFS has always been the Atlantic Model so its a surprise that it probably has this one wrong, remember also that the MetO mention the chance on its MRF so Glosea must be seeing something as well.
It's all down to the damn PV being to strong, the pattern wants to amplify like it did in December and January but with the PV in that location it's all but impossible to get deep cold west.
My money is still on a weak easterly developing, not a beast but something can could bring frost and a little snow to the east and south.
We shall see.
Andy
-
7
-
1
-
-
56 minutes ago, Nick F said:
Yesterday we were looking at whether we'd get a cold Pm flow from the NW as the strengthening jet perhaps shifted south , now that looks an increasingly distant possibility, with high pressure close to the southwest looking to keep a full on and prolonged Atlantic onslaught at bay and perhaps a ridge building NE over northern Europe into the extended range. This has the danger, though, of settiing up long draw southwesterlies. The EPS mean at day 10 still looks zonal though, annoying not having the EPS clusters with this uncertainty.
Exactly, the high hanging around like a drunk Uncle Barty at a wedding will just lead to very mild South westerlies, at least with yesterday's theme of cold zonality we had the promise of north westerly outbreaks or even northerlies. If this mornings charts verify its down to B&Q to collect some BBQ coals.
-
1
-
-
People who see potential in those 10 day ECM and GFS are deluding themselves, no good will ever come out of charts like that.
We need the high to totally sink, allow the jet to dig south and open the door to PM shots, that's the only way to cold from where we are at the moment which is very similar to early January, pressure rises from the south never lead to cold and please don't bother posting the mid January 1947 chart it was a one off.
Andy
-
3
-
1
-
-
-
Just a point of interest, I have been doing some research into winter 1963 in Penrith as its the 60th anniversary.
A unexpected fact I found was that despite the deep snow in Penrith in February 1963 the lowest temperature recorded during the entire winter was just -12c compared to -11c in December 2022 (snowless) and -18c in December 2010.
I know it's only one statistic but interesting nevertheless
Andy
-
1
-
-
-
Since the start of Netweather so many buzz words or phases have burst on the scene MOJ, SSW, MMA and my favourite Mountain Torque
I have studied Meteorology for 5 decades and only recently have all these things appeared.
They are like snake oil salesmen full of promises that they can forecast the future with these clever ‘Background Signals’ I am convinced it’s all boll*cks, made up half the time to make some people sound clever.
Back in the 60’s we only had one acronym BDC, bloody damn cold!
Andy
-
4
-
-
Dear God, the ECM is awful, it starts poor and just gets worse with the high shifting eastwards and growing to become a 3000 Mile wide Bartlett sitting over Iberia.
Londoners will be going from scraping ice off their cars to lighting their BBQs on that run.
Didn't look at GFS too depressed.
Andy
PS: All is not lost plenty of snow shots in Greece.....
-
2
-
1
-
-
- Popular Post
1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:oh dear - ec46
For Gods sake say why then!
-
19
-
1
-
6 minutes ago, ThunderHellCat said:
I'm one of the few people who actually keep weather records on here. I can say, from 1st December - 23rd January, the mean temperature has been 0.3°C below the average. So, it could be considered "slightly cooler than average". Not mild, and not very cold. All in the data.
Exactly, similar here in East Cumbria with average temperature 0.5c below 1970-2000 average.
-
1
-
-
1 hour ago, LetItSnow! said:
I still think having the coldest temperature for 10-12 years in an otherwise unremarkable HP dominated spell is interesting and not meaningless. Living in London the depth of cold and frost was something I had not seen for many years. It’s always easy to write things off when we’re not there. Beautiful weather actually at the moment.
London has had a decent winter compared to many recent ones with the heavy snow in December and severe cold in last few days.
Even if February is mild I have known a lot worse winters than this one!
Andy
-
5
-
-
48 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:
528 dam and freezing level low ~ so a good chance of a proper pm flow and wintry precip for some…
The one thing I have learnt over the years is don’t believe the models promising cold zonality 10 days out.
I can do well out of cold zonality being at 400feet in Cumbria but these charts Never verify!
Andy
-
4
-
4
-
1
-
-
In East Cumbria the average temperature between the 10th and 17th December 2022 was -4.2c, it was the third coldest spell since 1987 after January and December 2010.
It was the 4th coldest spell since 1979 and the 5th coldest week since 1963.
Coming so early in the season also made it unusual, however, we had just one snow shower and no days with snow lying, for such a cold spell that was also highly unusual.
Andy
-
6
-
-
If February is mild as seems likely the seasonal model predictions back in the autumn of a front loaded winter becoming more NAO+ with time will have done well.
Really any SSW next week would take 3-4 weeks to propagate down so we may have to wait till March for a proper cold spell which IMO is very likely this year.
Andy
-
2
-
-
30 minutes ago, Purga said:
We're relying on you to cheer us up Nick!
We certainly don't want Uncle Barty parking his ar*e over the Alps.
That quote really made me laugh, without dark humour everyone on this thread would be insane!
-
2
-
-
As if the Arctic Northerly wasn’t enough most places were swept by blizzards on 20th to 21st February 1969, just look at this chart for the 20th!
We can only dream guys
Andy
-
2
-
-
Another map from that Arctic Northerly in Feb 69, this is 18:00 on the same day and the snow had reached London.
Nothing marginal on that chart!
The 1960’s really were the golden years
Andy
-
6
-
-
18 hours ago, Northernlights said:
Just to cheer everyone up A bit of nostalgia here with no marginallity anywhere in the UK here from 1969. A true old school Arctic Northerly. All side roads blocked by drifts metres deep in this area.
Here is the Daily Weather Report for that day, note midday temperature of -3c and heavy snow in Manchester as an area of drifting snow swept south.
Now that’s what I call a Arctic Northerly unlike the tepid dishwater this week.
Andy
-
4
-
-
On my travels around North West England this week I have noticed dozens of dead cordyline and palm plants in box displays across many of the regions towns, here in Penrith the town centre is littered with many such plants.
So why are councils and some gardeners planting these tropical plants in the UK? They look great in public displays during the summer but are unable to survive severe winter frosts. In Penrith we had the third coldest spell in 35 years in December with a 7 day average temperature below -4c, some nights the temperature fell to-10c, this is way below the tolerance of cordyline plants.
Despite GW the UK does not have a Mediterranean climate and daft Woke Councils shouldn't be wasting public money planting these plants in an effort to convince us that GW is real and North West England is now like the Costa Del Sol!
Rant over.
Andy
-
3
-
-
4 hours ago, Quicksilver1989 said:
Any weather front is good really if it can produce snow! Just my favourite events usually have occurred with occluded fronts and a stalling pivoting low...
A narrow occluded front gave me 7cms of snow on Monday morning and many of my snowfalls come from these features. Occluded fronts have had the warm sector squeezed out so can bring snow in a cold enough air mass
-
1
-
1
-
-
53 minutes ago, Northernlights said:
Just to cheer everyone up A bit of nostalgia here with no marginallity anywhere in the UK here from 1969. A true old school Arctic Northerly. All side roads blocked by drifts metres deep in this area.
Oh yes, probably the most severe northerly outbreak I have come across although I was too young to remember it, however, Philip Eden describes it well in one of his book:
A severe northerly wind developed on the 7th and a band of heavy snow swept south across the whole country on these bitter winds, by the 9th only parts of Central southern England were without snow cover.
-
1
-
1
-
-
3 hours ago, Bricriu said:
I had resigned myself to this after the bullish update from the UKMO. Unless there is a dramatic turnaround in the next day or so, we'll have to wait till mid February. I am still hopeful the return to westerlies is part of the ongoing events in the strat.
Yes, in their 15-30 day outlook the MetO often say 'low confidence' as indeed has been the case since December but now they seem confident in their outlook.
Remember seasonal forecasts all pointed to a La Nina driven positive NAO February
I think a notable cold spell is possible, even likely in March but IMO February is bust.
Andy
-
2
-
1
-
Model Output Discussion - Into February
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
ECM having none of the GFS Moonjuice, high pressure centred over central Europe with UK under southerly flow by 240h, ultimate boring run eating up the remains of winter.
Difficult to see how a Easterly could appear out of that
See if the ensembles offer any hope.
Andy