Liam J

I'd say your still likely to get a dusting Peter but don't expect the blizzards and deep snow as the front now looks a very weak affair.

As Matt says the current Met Office forecasts look very odd now without question when compared to the overnight guidance even against their own FAX chart so expect amendments to filter into national forecasts through the morning , warnings generally get reviewed around 11am onwards.

Every night this thread seems to be taken WAY off course, please make sure before you hit that post button what you have typed is actually relevant to the MODEL discussion! I'm sure the team are going to enjoy coming in and cleaning up in here this morning.

Really should have learned by now not to get excited at the prospects of snow forecast until It is actually falling from the sky! So just grey cloudy and cold with perhaps light snow, it's not even white with frost really because of how low the dew point is, very dry air. Temp atm 0c Pray for a miracle that future runs ditch the idea of the developing shortwave! Typical as they'd be nothing marginal about it.

An explanation in the model thread from Matt on why things have changed -

Was hoping to see the models being a little more progressive with the front on the 00z runs, unfortunately not. the front appears to hit a brick wall against the cold block and pivot back, latest hi reso shows east Wales in a prime location for heaviest falls, a dusting in much of the region with areas around Cheshire southwards likely to see a bit more. Expect revisions to the Met warnings by midday and some of us won't like it. Matthew Hugo â€@MattHugo81 Closer look, it seems as though the front develops a low pressure on it in the Irish Sea now and this takes precip away from NW Eng.

At this rate I'm praying for a few cm to come out of it! Maybe i'll get 5cm drifts

The NMM 18z looks pathentic and by Friday evening the ppn is dying a death, not that it really got going!

The trend today has been for westward corrections with the front struggling to make inroads, this was evident on the 12z runs and the trend has carried on with the 18z runs. If by tomorrow morning the 00z runs continue this then expect the Meto to revise the current warnings and snow depths, just when you thought you could chill out and stop stressing another anxious night waiting to see the next set of runs.

Where anything that can go wrong will go wrong!

NAE charts 18z & 12z

Yes squeaky bum time! Quite a significant changes.

The front not making as much progress eastwards into the whole region.

NAE made another westward correction according to the MOD, anyone looked?

Backtrack ramping and being cautious, surely not?! I'm sure you mentioned a foot of snow earlier lol

I don't see why not as this is the perfect set up for the whole region, some of the best snowfalls here have been from this exact situation. We need stalled intense ppn The only minor concern will be how much intensity the front can maintain and how far into the block it can progress, all looking fine atm.

http://www.yr.no/satellitt/europa_animasjon.html

lol I've told folk as well mate, got a wee bit carried away! Confidence is high, I mean less than 24 hours to kick off what could possibly go wrong!

Well theres our winter storm looming large in the Atlantic.

Oh dear, I've learned from past experience as soon as I warn family or friends about incoming bad weather you can guarantee it goes belly up!

Probably be another 24 hours waiting and watching before we can comment on down to the wire specifics, 18z rolling out in 30mins nearly time to frantically hit the F5 key

The best idea on ppn amounts will be known when the front is heading towards us and we can follow it on the radar, no point getting stressed out over slight run to run changes. No model can accurately predict ppn amounts even when the event is T0

Stonking ECM rolling out atm, might be a good thing if you know someone with a JCB next week! Thats if you want to be dug out lol

Slightly concerning as the tendency on the 12z runs has been to reduce the fronts progress and intensity. Just our luck if it fizzles out! I'll only start to worry should this trend be maintained on future runs.

12z NMM shows the front dying out as approaches the NW, especially further south, hope this is far off the mark! Surface temps Dew points