Derp Patrol

I find that the GFS often overdoes the continent temperatures and underestimates our ones a lot.. The temperatures for the vast majority of the UK on that chart are complete tosh.. 14C in London in July? that's borderline impossible, 18C is the lowest temperature I think i've ever seen in July for London

Well today has certainly been good.. when you're inside in an office or home doing nothing it does feel cool with a window open, but I went out today and walked into town and even though it must have only been about 22C it felt more like 26C and it was pleasant enough with lots of sunshine. Days like today are fine, i'm not looking for constant anticyclones covering us, but it isn't too much to ask for low pressure not being slap bang over us.. looking at the charts and seeing EVERYWHERE else in Europe in the reds and oranges and then looking at that trough covering the UK with greens and yellows.. it just beggars belief Hopefully we will see a change soon though, after the weekend actually doesn't look too bad, and FI is still T + 120 or so for me even though it may be showing the same pattern after that period.. a lot can change in a few days. GFS in particular has a trend of showing low pressure dominated westerly regimes and crazy plumes in FI so i'll take nothing in FI as true for now.

I'm going to stick to what's possible for the UK, so although i'd like to see 45C and maybe 25C in winter, i'll stick to what's plausible to happen in the UK Summer: Day 1 - Sunny and hot 32C the max and 20C the min (Scotland and northern England stuck with 18C and grey drizzle (ok just joking ) Day 2 - Sunny and hotter. Day 39C night 23C Day 3 - sunny and cooler. Day 31C night 20C Day 4 - Thunderstorms with torrential downpour after a sunny start. Day 33C night 20C Day 5 - Thunderstorms in the morning clearing off to give a warm sunny day. Day 26C night 17C Day 6 - heat builds again, sunny and no clouds. Day 33C Night 20C Day 7 - Hot and sunny. Day 37C night 22C So nice and hot with some entertainment in the way of thunderstorms and a cooler day on day 5 to recover. Perfect for me and the nights warm enough to sit outside at midnight in shorts and a t shirt Winter in January: Day 1 - Bartlett high bringing overcast days with a fair amount of sunshine. Day 15C Night 11C Day 2 - 20C recorded in UK for first time ever in winter, some sun as well. Day 20C Night 12C Day 3 - high pressure transfers east to Scandinavia bringing much cooler weather. Day 6C Night 2C Day 4 - raging easterlies bringing snow overnight. Day -2C Night -8C Day 5 - snow storms with heavy snow for all of the UK bringing wide accumulations everywhere. Day -2C Night -10C Day 6 - further heavy snow from the east with monstrous totals, 10cm/hour in the sweet spot. Day -3C Night -13C Day 7 - high pressure moves over the UK bringing plenty of sunshine and staying cool to protect snow cover. Day 0C night -5C I love snow in winter but I also get very bored of consistent cold weather even if there is lots of snow as I long for longer summer days with the warmth, so my ideal winter would involve some warm days but heavy snow for the other half

Yeah.. Russia has had one hell of a good climate in recent years while we've suffered.. freezing snowy winters which are normal, but then flaming hot summers at the same time.. Moscow is meant to be almost as hot as London during July and slightly cooler in the other two summer months despite being on the same latitude as South Scotland, but last year they had that famous heatwave which seemed to last ages and so far this summer whenever i've looked i've seen mins of 17-20C and max's of 29-32C... so unfair. It's been a horrible week here though as well in the SE, although not as bad as other areas it's only 21C which is below average and as TWS said it feels cool because of the low humidity and a cool wind with no sun to make it feel warm.

I do feel bad for those in Ireland, Scotland and NW England, It really has been a 5th successive poor summer for them now. Here I would class 2010 as a good summer and 2009 as average, with the previous two before that being bad summers for here. However other than the brief hot spell where we got 33C a fortnight ago it has been poor for London standards here, most days this July so far just 20 or 21C which is 3C below average and frustratingly lots of cloud cover with clear skies at night... I think there is some 'SE hate' so to call it in the model thread, anyone from the SE complaining about the summer so far which while it hasn't been awful, hasn't been great either seems to get shot down by other people from NW areas who seem to think that 20C and cloudy is a nice warm day for down here Maybe i'm just a southern wuss but 20C for high summer actually feels quite cool with a breeze for here!

Also, I don't see what's wrong with IMBY posts? We all know that our climate differs greatly as you move from Scotland and NW England to London and the south east. Lots of posts here seem to be slated for saying things such as 'it's going to be a nice day at 25C and sunny' Which may be true for that person who lives in London; while in Newcastle where it's going to be 18C and grey people argue against the first poster and ridicule him then a SE versus rest argument ends up happening. I think people just need to look at the location box situated under the poster's name, as it would save a lot of arguing here; and if you wish you can ignore that person's posts if you see they are from somewhere in London and therefore their posts are not going to give a good reflection of the weather if you live in Glasgow. Let's face it I've never lived outside of London so there's no point in me trying to give a forecast for other areas as what would give 28C here might give 20C in northern areas, and I don't know the climate of these other areas enough to be able to say what each set up will bring to them, accounting for Haar winds etc of which I know nothing about.

Well it's subjective to where you live of course.. ok there's a month and 3.5 weeks of summer left, but I find that normally 'summer' extends to mid September in my area and sometimes longer. 30C isn't rare at all, since 2006 down here we've reached 30C on many occasions; and every month of May to September inclusive in every year since then has reached 25C so warm weather will never be ruled out completely. August 07 - 30C July 08 - 31C June 09 - 31C, 32C July 09 - 32C August 09 - 30C June 10 - 31C, 30C, 30C July 10 - 31C, 32C Even in the truly terrible summers of 2007 and 2008 we managed to get 30C and I even remember warm periods during that time. The previous 2 years that many people also slated had good spells - last July I recorded 4 weeks of temperatures at or above 23C in a row So I think it's fine to slate the current output, but it really is just plain stupid to rule out a month in advance, nobody can predict that far ahead and untill someone has the evidence that they can then writing of future months is not very clever.

There's still 2 months to go and you're writing of the rest of summer pretty much? wow. Not to mention September is warmer than May and you can still see 30C right up untill the end of September. I don't know whether you were referring to your area but I doubt that we've seen the last 30C.. we achieved 33C for June which is pretty good for June, and we are not even in the hottest part of summer yet... All it takes is any form of plume or high pressure dominated scenario and 30C is on the cards. (SE post) I think that it will be pleasant for the next few days, a bit cool relatively speaking though as 20C is 3C below average, however there will be sunny spells as we are not in a terrible pattern like some people seem to think so it will feel warm in the strong sun.

Looking decent for England and Wales for the next week or so in the reliable frame. We are now entering the time when traditionally I find that the temperatures 'stabilise' to about 22-24C on average here and it's rare to get below 20C, so any cool weather for here now is off the cards as the warmer air masses are moving northwards. We are not under an exactly warm airmass yet we are predicted night minima of 14-17C here and there will be plenty of sunshine so it is not a bad outlook at all unless you're in Scotland or Ireland.

Yes that's true and there were many awful days in summer 2007 with days of 20C and night mins of 16C under the atlantic dominated pattern. Even in winter it isn't unheard of to see mins of 8-10C

I find that it's far too overused. In winter it's fair enough that we've been seeing the term 'big freeze' mentioned a lot because we have had very cool winters recently and it is much harder for areas like say London to get ice days than get 30C in Summer IMO. But for places like London where on average there are 4 or 5 30C days a year then I think it is overused, a heatwave should be a rare event and not just a one of very warm spell. Average London maxima for July are about 23-24C now (using 81-10 averages) so 30C is too low for heatwave territory I think. Also, I remember last year we had a period of about 3-4 weeks of temperatures 24C or above and people were labelling that a heatwave, but it's fairly common to get sustained 24C+ temps here. For northern UK I think the definitions are slightly better as it is much harder to reach 28C-30C, but again i think 15C night temperatures is a bit pathetic to class as a heatwave! that's not far too off average night time temperatures here in July and August!

Do you post on TWO by any chance? I'm sick of this month as well but it looks like things are finally turning around now. June can be a changeable month here but usually in July the temperatures at least stay warm and stabalise so that it's rare to see under 20C in July here even during the crap atlantic weather driven patterns. That's a good thing about the SE at least, at least it's always warm in summer, hearing people in the NW always complaining about sub 20C and even 15C in summer makes me feel sick :s I couldn't live with that!

It's not a heatwave.. I wish people wouldn't call it a heatwave whenever they see a 30C on the chart, there's a set definition for heatwave and we get 30C so often that it's silly to call anything hot a heatwave For my area it's something like 2 days of 32C and minima of 20C I think and I doubt that anywhere outside of London will reach 30C. This week is looking like a good week though, possibly a 32C on Monday and 30C tomorrow here, then a week of slightly cooler weather in the lower 20s but still some sunshine but let's not forget the average for London is 23C so it's only average really.. I just hope we can get a sustained hot spell soon!

I'm sorry but what you are saying is even more confusing to the new people. You are really going to take the GFS max temps chart for gospel? That is showing naivety in itself. It's extremely unlikely that the 850 temps shown will bring just 27C, with uppers at about 15C 32C is a good bet and they are forecast to be higher so I do not see your need to laugh at my post at all as it's far more plausible than your suggestion..

There's no doubt that temps are being underplayed by the BBC. I can remember having 14c uppers under cloud all day and still reaching 31C here. 10c uppers are enough for 30c here and I have no doubt that IF we see the uppers progged of just below 20C then 33-35C is a very real possibility. 28C under the uppers shown is way underestimating things.

15c uppers would guarantee at least 30c in the south east seeing as we can see it from 10C uppers. But nothing out of the ordinary really, about time we had a hot spell and it's nothing unusual to get these sort of temperatures

Yes, going on the tube in summer is very unpleasant.. it's often above 30C on most days down there and during hot spells it reaches over 40C..

Fair enough, I know some people don't tolerate heat as well as others, it's just the surprise some people seem to have when it gets hot that it's 'unusual' that's weird and the over talk of global warming as soon as we get a heatwave that's annoying

Have to agree with you there.. the word heatwave is ridiculously over used in this country.. I heard people last year labelling it as a heatwave when it was 22-24C for a week and sunny in July when they're average July temperatures. When it reaches 30C people go on about it being unbearable and talk about global warming when 30C also happens every year in the UK

I still think that If we are to have a rating system (which I fully support) then it is only fair that there is a negative rating option as well as it gives a true reflection to newer members of what is best to read. I know that certain people were targeted for ramping cold, but maybe it should just be made clear that the rating system is not for targeting people who don't like warmth? I think it should be brought back, maybe with a reason option if you are going to neg someone's post like on other forums, and then at least everyone can see why that post was negged... or another option would be to make it like Facebook where your name shows if you've liked a post or disliked it.

Much like i'm sure many of us don't appreciate the havoc and loss of life heavy snow causes in the winter, but we still like it. I don't think anyone is wishing for a drought, but the weather does what it does and most of us understandably want a hot and relatively dry summer. The world would be a very boring place if we all wanted mild southwesterlies all year around so that there are no droughts/freeze ups!

Yes fantastic news for us. It has looked likely for a while now with the la nina fizzing out and it's about time we had a good summer - statistically speaking we are probably due a 1976 type summer (2006 wasn't a whole summer event)

It's hardly awful for everywhere. For example here it looks like staying high teens or even low 20s for the next 4-5 days which is a bit above average for early May. Looking at FI in a model won't help you because it will just change each run, the pattern will start to show soon enough.

I'm going for a dry and warm summer this year. I have a very strong urge to suggest that we could be in for a 1976 or 2006 type start to summer if these synoptics continue, I think that May, June and July will be warmer and drier than average and I also think that we will see a very good summer this year

In winter it would make no difference of being depressing as the sun sets so early, so either way pretty much everyone is awake at both sunset and sunrise - the only difference really is that if we had more daylight in the afternoon it would allow people to do more then.