nsrobins

Sorry to hear that, Ian. Has anyone stayed with him? I assume that was why you stopped on the west side of Amarillo. The cell currently just east of Pueblo, CO has a reasonable signature and a scuddy wall cloud (TVN feed)

The latest RUC has put the cat amonst the pigeons and continued to shift the threat west and north and I think even Boise may be too far south for this play. At 22Z a small, closed looking surface low has developed around Colorado Springs and the SPC warning text quite rightly has reflected the shift into SW CO for maximum tornado threat. No-one ever said this forecasting business was easy!

I'm not sure what the terrain or roads are like down there, but as things stand just now I'd be moving down the I60 towards Friona. Anything that does fire within 30 miles of there should be reachable easily given the sluggish storm motions.

Agree Nick, but beware the dreaded westward retrogression! 11Z RUC has put the surface low a little further NWrd as suspected and the DL only just reaches the NM/TX border by 23Z. I expect initiation to now be about due west of AMA on the border, with the imputus of topogrophy, but as you say parameters are conducive for rotation on any cell meandering (literally!) eastwards during the evening.

THE RELATIVELY GREATEST TORNADO THREAT MAY EXIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TX PANHANDLE/ADJACENT TX SOUTH PLAINS IN VICINITY OF A SURFACE LOW/WARM FRONT/DRYLINE /AND PERHAPS CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW/ FOCUSED TRIPLE POINT. LOL. If you manage to get the position right from all those clues you should target an area of about 5 square miles! Increased chances this morning of a structure AND tornado threat this evening and I would be targeting the area in the southern TS panhandle - RUC at lunchtime will give more pointers on this. Tomorrow looks tasty - and maybe we'll see another HIGH risk by the morning.

The RUC delivers the best parameters for supercells not far from where you are now - say Seminole/Andrews area where the best of the rather slack shear profiles exist at 01Z. Slow storm motions with high bases could make for some great photo opportunities. Edit - just spotted that cell sliding south of Roswell, NM showing signs of turning. If it survives it will enter a richer profile in an hour or so but it's crawling though - so you might have to meet it half way if you decide to intercept.

Re: Weds 19th It wouldn't be the first time this season that the models have shunted the maximum instability axis further west as the high-res numbers are crunched, Nick. The NAM 12Z has a very nice DL bulge with the high gradient over Plainview, which alone would take me towards the Paducah area, and EHIs max out in the Paducah/Vernon TX area. My only worry is the initial shortwave pulse generates a complex (NAM composite) around 21Z that may inhibit discrete convection in it's wake, and areas just to the northwest of the above then become more favourable (up towards Shamrock, TX). I might be talking a load of roll clouds, but that's my take on the current NAM. Whatever happens, it looks reachable from DFW and tornados look probable.

Today is definately worth the effort for upslope rollers and I suspect there'll be some good structure to be found, but it's tommorow that is grabbing my attention. The 21Z 18/5 sounding for Guymon is showing the effects of a SW'ly LLJ cranking up the helicity with shear enough to rotate supercells that move off the DL. I'd be thinking of getting up to the OK panhandle, with DFW still reachable maybe the following day.

What's you're thinking behind looking at a more southern target, Paul? I had a look at the possible impulse SPC were on about and WV imagery does indeed show a sharp dry slot now crossing the TX panhandle which could be the forcing required for initiation on or just north of the Red River.

A bit late on this one as been really busy all day and now watching the shenanigans with David Cameron arriving at Number 10 in the last few minutes. The latest RUC CAPE and SRH parameters are insane for 22Z and the cap looks like being breached between 22Z and 22.30Z in W OK. I would be setting up around Clinton, OK which admittedly looks a tad east of the DL but in an area of insane 6000+ CAPE. I would be interested if there are any subtle boundaries in the area which may help focus on the likely initiation target.

Indeed Paul - any chance of an early Discussion thread for Day 14. Just posted this on UKWW: I sort of suspected the moisture feed would recover from the modelled values of yesterday and the 18Z NAM returns 65F into W C OK ahead of a very well-defined DL. Crazy deep EHI values just west of OKC at 21Z say long-lived mesos to me and I might be tempted to set-up on the I35 corridor and intercept rather than chase as the convergence is going to to be hell TBH. The OKC sounding for the same time shows nearly 90degree turn from surface to 850mb so it's pretty much a given that any cell moving off the boundary will turn like crazy and stay that way for a fair time. Take care chaps.

00GFS Fri - has backed off Sunday's potential and is now slow to return moisture into the region, but an opportunity exists further south down the DL towards Lubbock. Monday however still looks insane, and the combined parameters support a significant event W and C OK and S C KS. When NAM emerges i wouldn't be surprised to see some eye-popping SRH values. Use Sunday as a 'training and bedding in' session, as the teams will have to have their wits about them from Monday if the charts are to be believed. 45kn storm speeds in 4000+ CAPE and off the roof shear. Phew!

No real excuse but I keep forgetting to add an hour for BST - that and the fact that I've had one too many pints of Doombar watching various cars leave various party leaders houses in the last hour. RUC still keen on cap erosion shortly so keep your hopes up. I see Sean Casey and the TIV is parked-up just south of Ellis. I'm off back to the party.

I assume that's the view east, John. The skyline to the south should be looking a bit milky as WV imagery shows some sort of boundary along the WF. Latest RUC throws 60dps into your area by 00Z with a pool of cap erosion pretty much over your heads by then. Something should quickly initiate in the next 30 mins and I still think it will be just to the west or SW of your current position. By 01Z a more general complex may start developing to the NE of Wichita.

I think you're in a pretty good position there, Paul. I thought earlier that Ness City would be Ok and that stands. The cap will erode west to east ahead of the DL bulge and just north of the warm frontal boundary by 00Z. Any cell popping through the lid and shunting east north of Wichita will move into a more favourable environment for rotation and as SPC quite rightly say supercells are likley. You're obs confirm 53 ish dps and these will rise by a few pints by 23Z. Watch the skies! NB: BBC exit poll shows a hung parliament with no overall majority (I am at an election party with one eye on the results and the other on the conditions in Kansas!)

A tricky one to call for today but I think there may well be a window of opportunity for structure and possible brief spin-ups between 00Z and 02Z. The stout cap rapidly erodes from west to east and there's just enough moisture ahead of the DL to initiate convection from 23Z, and although the NAM composite doesn't want to know, I think the juxtaposition of warm boundary and DL will be enough to get the parcels to pop. The rotation will be provided by some directional shear in C KS as any cell moves west to east. Taking timing, cap, cape and DL position (broad bulge) into account, I would be wandering towards Ness City / Dighton by the late afternoon.

06Z GFS Weds - I'm still drawn to the Sunday potential here, as there's a very well defined DL that has now shunted further west again at 00Z 10.5.10 and a SE surface flow will readily advect 60+ dps across the Caprocks. The cap looks very stout though but any storm breaking through on or just east of the DL should have no problem and a few very large high-based but discrete cells look likely - I'd be thinking Amarillo down to Plainview for a rough initiation axis. Then we go into Monday . .

This morning's GFS looks a little more progressive with the Sun/Mon set-up and has moved the corridor east along the I35. This will soon come into NAM range and then the specifics will start to leak out. Until then the potential is definately there of several chase opportunities from Sunday onwards.

Yep 06Z GFS continues to pick-up on a long-lived dryline set-up from Sunday evening, with some Lubbock Lunacy on the cards. Near perfect storm-chasing country down there, if you can tolerate the heat.

LOL - I wouldn't take my analysis too seriously as I've been out by up to 100 miles on each of the last three chase days Having said that it's important for anyone interested in severe weather, especially the Plains tornado season, to keep plugging away in the hope that experience improves one's abilities! Tour 1 have seen plenty of action and a few calm days to let the adrenaline return to normal may not be a bad thing, though once bitten by the bug it's understandable to want more.

Definately a quiet few days to come (barring the blowback from the Steakhouse) but Tour 2 could well drop into it big time. Early indications of a four day episode beginning this weekend, with the pattern backing west so that some panhandle dryline magic looks on the cards Sunday - Tuesday.

Structure and hail day today, with somewhere like McAlester maybe a reasonable location - a couple of hours from you and fairly good terrain. LIs approaching -4, good moisture again and nearly 4 figure max CAPE available should be enough for the shortwave pulse to work on later this afternoon. The pattern then dampens down for a few days but I don't think it will last long.

The I30 could be the rough line of initiation in the next 20mins - which of course is a problem with respect the river. There are three main crossings - Little Rock, Pine Bluff and Dumas further south - so those to the SW of the river may need to jiggle a bit if they want to follow any cell. The issue of a PDS reflects the potenial severity of the next five hours. Say safe chaps.

Heading into Stuggart I see? Well, at least this time you can see what's going on The area just ahead of the boundary is primed now - it won't be long I'm sure.

Surface obs indicate 72-74F dps advecting into S AR now in clear slot just ahead of quasi-stationary front aligned Pine Bluff to Jonesboro. I expect developments to continue down this line and the team look in great shape to intercept a succession of cells as the afternoon progresses.