nsrobins

Get ready to ditch the popcorn and fillet burgers chaps - second of the two cells to your SSW looks very tasty on KLZK radar. TNVids Denmark team on it and it's looking ugly.

'Multiple corridors' suggest to me it's a cluttered day which will depend largely on picking the right boundaries, with outflow from the ongoing MCS possibly pointing to the Jonesboro area for a good starting point. The parameters look like setting-up a dangerous AR/TN late evening tornado risk so a good twilight vantage point with fast escape routes is essential.

Well you did better than me - second day in a row that I've been out by 100 miles! The CF passed me hours ago. Interesting to see the most potent looking cells now are feeding off the influx of rich moisture on the AR/MO border. A messy cloudscape that may well hide rotation in the next few hours.

Good summary, Nick. I would be looking at Wildwood, MO for highest shear values and gambling on the CF stalling a bit in the next few runs.

A great start to the tour. I did think moisture wouldn't be sufficient further north than SC KS but you got some brilliant structure by the looks of things. In my target position I would have probably missed these as 55mph vectors really require good starting locations! Now on to Friday which looks quite lively.

Great bubble starting to fill the screen there, Nick. Hang tight, and look SW!

19Z RUC Cap erodes in a narrow corridor as predicted within the veering windfield just ahead of the surface low currently consolidating above Dodge City area. Although I'm shifting initiation back an hour I still expect enough potential to develop sups in the Medicine Lodge/Pratt region (MUCAPE here progged 1500 by 23Z) on the eastern fringe of the DL bulge in the next hour or so and disagree somewhat with the SPC with respect timings. Where you are just now looks OK to catch these by 00Z as they shuffle fairly rapidly NE.

RUC 15Z I still want to be on the far south of the updated Slight risk area for the reasons I stated earlier, as I think the best window of opportunity for tornadic sups will exist with any tail ender that develops on the lesser of the two DL bulges, as the cap erodes around the 22Z mark. I may have to hang on and watch things develop further North but sitting patiently around Harper/Medicine Lodge may deliver an hour of high-end action as the evening develops. May be wrong - and been wrong before of course! Great feed by the way and it looks as hot as the obs say it is.

Paul and team If you find it useful I'll try to post my own thoughts every lunchtime on the day's prospects so you have them to add to your breakfast briefing. Please feel free to ignore everything I say though 06 NAM This is one of those days when you have to gamble on the cap. Yes by all means go North into central KS where CIN decays early and you're likely to see something, but what you'll end up with could be just soggy mush. I might be more tempted to sit on the OK/KS border (with Friday's trip in mind). Stout CIN of > -400 around 21Z looks like it might be quickly eroded in response to a pulse in an area between Kiowa and Medicine Lodge on the 281. Initiation from 22Z with adequate moisture should put discrete cells ahead of the could front and move these into what looks like up to 400 SRH with shear increasing towards 00Z. The trip east into AR won't seem as daunting from here and who knows, the gamble might work.

Morning chaps. Glad you all made it safely and must be a relief to be finally on the road. Cap-busting ascent takes me to the OK/KS border for 20Z with the bases lowering as the evening progresses.

Some differences in timing it seems but there's a tangible severe threat again Thurs/Fri this week (29th/30th) with moisture return recovering each cycle. Right now I'd be mildly optimistic if I was in the first few chase teams.

Best wishes to all the chasers on the Plains this season and stay safe (if not dry)

I know what you mean but it's better than some I've heard

Forgot to say - in addition I have a handy 110V to 230V british socket upverter to use the motel room juice in the evenings if anyone wants to borrow.

Good luck with the prep and tours chaps. I have a skytronic 300W 12v-240V upverter I'm happy to lend if anyone wants it. With a four gang british socket extension it easily powered two laptops and charged mobiles, etc. Drop me an email and I'll post it to you zolbecd@hotmail.com

Just very heavy traffic, Vince, as you'd expect. We are trimming the edges and reducing less critical applications to maintain the service but with over 1000 online at any one time it's a bit of a strain! Mind you, we're not the only ones who are busy

I second that. The Netweather team must be congratulated for the quality and depth of the coverage this last five weeks, and your efforts are very much appreciated. Looking forward to next year and getting on the road again myself.

Looks like it's bubbling away, Nick. Agree surface obs indicate firing is likely along the Juntion - Eden road. Already cells towards Abilene.

I've often wondered - what is the situation regarding crossing the border into Mexico? Is this possible?

Ok wasn't sure of the terrain down there. I was thinking of west and central AR but that terrain I do know and hiking, swimming, tree-chopping and chain saw lessons yes. Storm chasing - definately not advised LOL! Once over the river and it does flatten out a bit (Stuggart last year?)

Pleased you got onto this cell - it fired a bit further south than I expected but the getting something to fire in those conditions is the key! For today (Weds) I'm thinking about the area doe east or ESE of DFW for best outflow play ahead of the cold front. RUC progs max CAPE of approaching 3000 with some shear offered by the lower portions of a reasonable subtropical jet. Provisional target - Tyler to Lufkin with ongoing storms around Houston developing into the afternoon.

nice - nothing to >55dbz core in 15 minutes! Edit the motion - looks like it's drifting east but only 7mph. Now severe warned.

Should take it close to Decatur. Guys if you can have a look at the Denmark group stream on TVN. OMG, that that cell is undergoing absolutely awesome explosive convection.

21Z RUC lifts the lid at 22Z (about now) Nick. 4000+ max CAPE available pretty much on top of you now. I see Stu Robinson is in Wichita F and Paul Knightly is in Bowie. Amazing how a slight risk is attracting all the bison to the waterhole!