nsrobins

Done. Hope it generates some interest. I'd be in myself were it not for the move to the new hospital and all that entails.

Hi Paul I can put this on The WeatherOulook as an announcement if you like?

The discussion for Chase Day 17 (Tues 12th) will be interesting and the choice of target as important as ever as it looks like things may well be quiet in the Plains for a few days once the cold front steams through on Wednesday. My target of choice at the moment (and based largely on a cap that is breakable combined with some decent shear parameters) is the far NW KS, and assuming the team will be in Amarillo (see above post <_< ) on Tuesday morning I think the trek up the 83 may be achievable with an early start. Could be a good place then to head east towards the KS/MS border for the what looks like lively cold front action on Wednesday. Big distances yes but when you've got people who need to see storms it has to be done. An alternative would be to stay local in the OK Panhandle on Tues but it's too early to be sure what the pros and cons of this are.

Looks like something that needs attention in the Amarillo area tonight (Monday): ADVANCE WARNING OF AN EDSS (EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STOMACH SITUATION) BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE INDIGESTION WARNING NATIONAL STEAK SERVICE AMARILLO TX 0033 PM CDT MON MAY 11 2009 THE NATIONAL STEAK SERVICE IN AMARILLO HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE INDIGESTION WARNING FOR... RANDALL AND POTTER COUNTY IN NORTHWEST TEXAS... * UNTIL 1.00 PM CDT WEDS MAY 13 2009 NATIONAL STEAK SERVICE THERAPISTS PREDICT A SEVERE CASE OF OVER-EXCESS, LEADING TO DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS EXCESS WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE BIG TEXAN STEAKHOUSE IN CENTRAL POTTER COUNTY, SOME 20 YARDS NORTH OF THE I40. THIS SITUATION HAS A LONG HISTORY OF PRODUCING PROBLEMS REQUIRING MEDICAL ATTENTION THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS WILL ALSO BE AFFECTED: THE BIG TEXAN ROOMS, THE I40 AND ROUTES NORTH OF THIS LOCATION THROUGHOUT THE FOLLOWING DAY PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... IN ADDITION TO DAMAGING WINDS...PAINFUL CRAMPS, FREQUENT TOILET STOPS AND THE OVERIDING CONVICTION NEVER TO EAT SO MUCH AGAIN ... WILL ALSO OCCUR WITH THIS SITUATION. PERSONS IN PROXIMITY OF THE SUBJECTS AFFECTED ARE ADVISED TO SEEK SHELTER NOW. <_< :wub:

Latest visible sat shows a developing chunky Cu field in the Fort Stockton area westwards towards the high range. This is about 120 miles WSW of your current position. Wouldn't be surprised to see something pop shortly from this cluster though it's a bit too far west IMO.

The 18Z RUC has just enough of a dangling carrot to make me take a trip into the Texan hill country and hope for an upslope supercell to fire. Discrete cells develop after 00Z but I think they're too far west. If anything breaks through it'll likely be on the weak boundary - mini dryline intrusion comination around the Midland to Big Lake area. Good luck.

I wonder whether the upslope play on the NM border may be worth a closer look once the 12Zs roll out.

I was quite pleased with my target of Wichita F eastward yesterday and was only 50 miles or so away from the second bunch of initiation. Still learning! For today the 12Z NAM releases enough CAPE in a small area south of the I20 just south of a reasonably welldefined boundary around 00Z to be of interest. Infact with EHI of >7.00 I might be tempted to take the trip to the Abilene area for a few hours fun and be in a good area for Sunday potential - which currently looks to produce large hail producers west along the I20 corridor. It seems most of the action seems to be focussed in the south this year so far.

I know exactly how you feel - and believe me, if you don't manage to go again next year it will be excruciating Glad you enjoyed it

Well the bow echo feature excelled itself and is still ongoing, with 100mph+ winds and embedded tornados in a few places in the last few hours. What this does to the situation further west this evening is difficult to judge, but I still think discrete structure and possibly a strong sup is more than possible in the area I described earlier. I think SPC's take on the cap is a tad overdone and despite recent history some chasable action is still on the table for Wichita F area eastward.

Lovely looking bow and derecho slamming MO now - hence the MOD risk by SPC. It seems to be spinning up on occasion but mainly SLWs of around 70mph and hail. Paul - I agree with the Red River target from 23Z and within reach from DFW, pending delays and immigration, etc. Given your pick-ups I'd stay south but on a crossing path and for that purpose Wichta F looks ideal. Edit: Just had a gander at the 12Z NAM and I'm really liking the easing off of CIN over the target. It's been cap or bust lately and I'm keen to weight this particular parameter more heavily, especially as juice, etc is a given at the moment. Also look at the bullseye of 550 SRH (0-3) just N of Wichita F over the river. From my inexperienced perspective I reckon numbers look more favourable today than the previous two.

It'll soon be time for Team 2 to start their tour in earnest and despite the rather hesitant re-grading of today's potential from the SPC (and understandable given the continued presence of a firm cap which has put the lid on the otherwise excellent prospects of the last few days) I think they could be in luck straight from DFW airport this afternoon. In a nutshell, I wouldn't go too far up the I35 as a few discrete sups may be able to break the lid and ride the boundary along the Red River later on.

Looks like he cap breaking up in NE KS - TVN has towers going up near Holton on the 75

I'm going off the Red River idea now - the cap is just too strong down there. Instead I'm homing in on the Emporia/Burlington area in CE KS for an early evening cap break.

Have a fantastic time - and yes it looks lively friday evening. Talk about jumping in with both feet

I'm liking the Red River area from 23Z for say a 35% chance of a cap busting big storm, but higher chances of somewhat less severe action exist with the northern target of SE KS. Mind you, my forecasts relying on a breaking cap have been somewhat dodgy lately.

Your problem may once again be a stout looking cap, Paul. If those 700mb temps can drop a notch or two below -10 you'll be in business given the very favourable slew of parameters, especially an insane looking CAPE.

Lovely shots again - good result for what was essentially a 'bust' in terms of the forecast potential. Analysing it seems the intrusion of a cooler layer at 700mb didn't arrive to coincide with maximum heating so the cap was tougher to crack than forecast. Action over the nxt few days seems focussed further east - will you play with it?

Yep the resident Breckenridge cell has tightened up nicely in the last 5 minutes.

Cap 1 Covection 0 Not a good sign to see a decent cell like that get hammered. Perhaps we need the middle layers to cool a bit?

Looks like the corks off the bottle. Unfortunately I'm still 'in' Guthrie but am making tracks east :blush: Good luck chaps - there may only be a few discrete cells as they drift east but what there is could be major.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0710.html Recent MD for the target area. I'm not moving from Guthrie yet as I can see the prominent dryline bulge is pushing east now. Paul's position in Aspermont is pretty good IMO. Initiation could only be an hour or so away now.

I'm coming round to the DL bulge playing it's part on this one (main push just south of Lubbock) and I agree with Roger that the mess over and to your north is worth avoiding for the chance to catch a cap-busting beauty later on. I said Guthrie and will stick with that myself - certainly I'd stay well north of the I20.

The SPC update makes interesting reading, and they have indeed extended the Mod risk area westwards towards Lubbock to allow for the chance of the post MCS, dryline bulge late afternoon beasts should forcing be enough to break the cap. I'm thinking seriously of heading towards the Matador - Guthrie area assuming there's nothing of note to buzz around on this morning's developments closer to hand. Luckily I'm not leading a group of chasers as it could be a win or bust later on. The cap holds - bust. The cap breaks and win. Like a pressure cooker lid popping off you get rapid convection and the chance of some beautiful supercells, and given the high SRH and shear with a veering LLJ, they'll readily spin.

Update 06 NAM: It continues to be a tough call, so someone of my limited experience has only a slim chance of getting his one right. I think the SPC Moderate risk area is too far east. Moisture is not a problem, and although the composite radar breaks out ppn over the DFW area from 23Z, the best mean CAPE (3000+) and SRH (350+) are centred further west along the warm front in the Lubbock area. Throw in what looks like an ever tightening dryline bulge (impressive gradient there) on the I27 around Tulia and the money has to be on a shift west this afternoon, maybe Turkey, so long as something can pull the trigger and break the pretty hefty cap (not quite a death cap but close). For this you may need to rely on an OFB from the yet to develop and then fading MCS mess across OK. This could be a case of sitting and hoping well into the afternoon, but if something does shoot it could be a beast.