nsrobins

Sounds like the trip was worth it in the end - looking forward to the report.

That backs-up Windmapper. What I can't see are the 950mb wind fields but maybe with the frontal boundary stalling way to your north, and hardly any directional shear across it that I can see anyway, the initiation will have to come from topography if things are to get going. Looks like about 6/8 high cloud cover too, but this is clearing to your east. Here's hoping you get something to fire. I'm off as I have an early start in the morning.

I admire your perseverance, and to be honest I'm not sure why the discussion is so quiet on this one as the data I'm looking at is developing a few storms, possibly a decent hail producer, in the next three hours. Latest RUC has a sizable ppn core from 23Z to your northeast over Graham, and the model is being led by locally dropped-out cap, medium instability and plenty of juice. All we need is a kick - and I thought we'd get that from a surface convergence in wind flow. What's the surface wind vector where you are?

Yes the Vortex crowd have been doing a good job booking up all the motel space between Clovis and Springfield this last week by all acounts. Agree a thread for tommorow's thoughts and musings is required.

'Here' or 'there'? Thursday 14th May: As I said earlier I reckon there's a good chance of some structure Vernon to Abilene axis from 00Z (sorry - big area I know). The 06Z NAM looked reasonable with a surface flow convergence initiating activity in a high CAPE environment, and 15Z RUC backs this up to some extent.

Can't start a thread for today (Chase Day 19) but think one is justified (06Z NAM) as I'm looking at a surface flow convergence in the Abilene, TX area at 00Z. For once CIN is not a problem so with ample moisture, mCAPE of 3000+ could easily be realised and make use of albeit weakish shear velocity wise but reasonable SRH of 300+ and surprising EHIs of 3.00 ish nosing in from the northeast. It could be worth a trip back in TX, especially given potential for Saturday.

Footage of a close encounter with the Kirksville storm here (Bart Comstock) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ope9pkY9w2E...player_embedded Although tragically someone has lost their life, I think given the parameters originally progged it could have been much worse especially in N C MO where SRH and shear was maximal.

Can't do a major technical on this but if you possibly can creep further northeast Paul then do. I get the feeling that the further you go the better the chance of catching something in good daylight by 6pm say. If it all kicks off after dark into C OK and the AR/MO corner you really don't want to be going in there. The film 'Wrong Turn' springs to mind LOL.

I concede that chase geography is a key factor, so maybe if you can get there then Vinita or Big Cabin, OK would be worth aiming for. Could this be a day for a monster tail-end-charlie I wonder? Over 5500 mean CAPE available if it can be realised.

Some of that mammatus structure is awesome. I'm so glad your team managed to latch onto some action yesterday as it was touch and go for a while! Personally quite pleased with my morning target of Turkey, TX though I was a bit surprised to see initiation start so far west. Now, on to today . . . . :o

I'm with Tony on this after a first glance of the morning. I would however like to be into MO if possible as I think the risk will be upgraded on the next update and tornados look more likely this evening than at any time this last two weeks.

I might be inclined to target the cell near Mtador heading for - err - Turkey. Environment there more liable to lower the base and get rotation started.

Thanks for the response, Roger, much appreciated by a student of the art such as me. I see the mini-cluster of elevated stuff SW of Plainview is getting more organised.

Mini-turrets going up near Sweetwater. Still not sure why things arn't progressing in the Panhandle but it's still an hour or so from the predicted cap dissolution.

I don't think the SPC are that keen on either of our targets, Roger, but I'm going to try to understand the philosophy behind your argument as I need to learn and if you can't make the most of May synoptics in the Plains you've got the wrong hobby. I assume that subtle shortwave ripple has initiated the convection on the NM border. It's strange when you've spent quite a bit of time during the day studying models to see your plans unfolding before you (or in my case dissolving before you probably)

The complex currently down the spine of OK is clearing slowly east (with a kick in the tail - TVS near Wichita KS I see) and the high cirro-stratus shield on the outflow stretches into the TX panhandle. What's promising is the sharpish clearence now into the I27 corridor. Clear skies and hot, hot 2ms will develop in the next four hours - but can we bust the cap? Yes, I reckon we can and Turkey is still my target (or maybe a bit South of here). If instability can be realized - it going to explode!

A rare sirloin the size of the Isle of Wight, followed by a large rum? Total respect.

Perhaps someone could open a thread for tommorow to keep this clear for this evening? I'm not convinced at the moment that you need to head so far east for Wednesday's potential action. The CF will do enough right into OK IMO if the GFS is anything to go by, but yes it appears maximum Tor parameters seem focussed on Central/West IL and into MO. Actually there's growing opinion that a two-three hour period of major severe weather is likely. Back to the here and now and although I understand your concerns about travelling, the risk of missing a lovely high-based supercell sliding across the caprocks and starting to tighten-up as it encouters higher SRH and lower LCLs towards the river is too much for you surely?

10Z RUC: Just a sneak preview of conditions early afternoon and the RUC also starts to erode the cap in a tongue from NM across LBK, which by my untrained eye may place initiation further down the I27 towards Plainview. I think I need to have a break and look again later this afternoon, but target stays Turkey, TX.

06Z NAM update: At 21Z the dryline looks sharper to me, especially on the OK panhandle. About 2500 CAPE is released just ahead of the DL in this location by 00Z but is better (>3000) further south towards Plainview. Shear parameters give a crazy 550+ blob of 0-3 Helicity just over the River in far SW OK and ppn composite pops a discrete cell just west of the I27 at the same time. The Cap situation has improved IMO, with NAM dropping it out over the target area but keeping a lid further North. Conclusion? I'll stick with my original target and recommend a Turkey shoot! Edit: Oh, and it's gonna be hot :lol:

I agree with Roger in that there are similarities with that fateful day, but having had a quick flick through NAM this morning I'm actually not moving too far now. Potential is there right along the dryline but the thinnish inversion is a cap too far IMO for the mid-Plains target. However, NAM does release some impressive potential just south and west of their current position from 00Z, with tornadic indices favourable. Target: Turkey, TX Additional: For forward planning, think Central Missouri for Weds. It's simmering!

New York, Old Faithful, Barack Obama, The Grand Canyon, The Big Texan Steak - you took one hell of a beating! Congratulations Ian.

It must of been brilliant to meet and chase with a legend like Dave Edwoldt. My kids know several 'pro' chasers by name, and often ask about the likes of David Drummond and Reed Timmer when I'm streaming live. They think Reed is an absolute nutcase. Probably not far wrong to be honest LOL.

I detect a hint of concern in your voice and it's justified. I watched a very thin looking Dutch guy try the challenge last year and he got about half way before collapsing! Mind you, I reckon Ian is made of sterner stuff. One problem - the webcam is offline. Perhaps the guys could set their stream up specially?

I know what i'd be thinking if I were making decisions for tomorrow - where best for the next day? SPC have upped the ante for the cold front caberet on Weds evening, and I suspect the really sharp bow that pounded MO the other day may be keeping the SPC on it's toes for what looks like a really sheared frontal axis. The Moderate upgrade is understandable, but you need to be into central MO to pick-up on this - a good 6hr drive from far W OK yes but much further if you go chasing the northern target tomorrow which with each run is becoming a tad out of reach. So you stay 'local', have a lazy morning and move NW of Amarillo (lunch perhaps at the Cattle Exchange in Canadian - the best peppered steak I've ever had LOL) and into W OK. The big question is will the cap bust? If it does, it could be insane with enough deep SRH to turn water into wine (in excess of 900 towards C OK on the 12Z NAM). A sharpish drline sets-up around Guymon - no real bulge but a 20-60C dp range across about 60 miles is impressive. Everything looks good TBH except the cap. Will it or won't it?