gpspete

I met this dutchman at breakfast in our hotel in norman on sat. morning before leaving for DFW airport his tour group was on the storm that hit joplin his blog and video http://supercell.nl/

cnn news footage of joplin http://edition.cnn.c...ey.bpr.cnn.html despite having been stormchasing with netweather as recently last week arrived home yesterday i don't think anyone would wanted to have seen this as first hand witnesses looks like the Weather Channels Great Tornado Hunt team must have been close to this

arrived home from tour 2 just had asleep for 4 hrs as no sleep on plane it was full and noisy a very bumpy ride seatbelt signs on for most of flight arrived 1/2hour early and set of 15min. late suspect rode a jet stream most the way see a couple of cells with decent hight now what am i missing !!!!! looks like things are starting to realy kick off for tour 3 good luck and get some decent pics bye the way volcano trouble in Iceland AGAIN differant volcano Grímsvötn keep a check on latest met advisory http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/aviation/vaac/data/VAG_1306068174.png

2 of my pics from today rotating storm with a hint of a funnel trying to drop a tornado a hundred yards away

trying to get some sleep got to get up 03.30 to get 4.30 bus from Oxford to Heathrow bit excited though now what have i forgot to pack hmmmmm what you doing Pat sitting at airport all night waiting for tomorows flight

every run of the models seems to show something a bit different (there it is no it isn't back again) a big waiting game even if its only a couple of days to go lol

plenty of lightning on the storms that tour 1 are on

thats because they were driving east away from storm they have now turned around letting storm come to them just see some good lightning on cam

the previous post i made firmed up as i thought it would it did not push so far east as i thought as the energy pulse is slowed down a day or so so hopefull friday will be a play day also. SPC prediction looking good for wed/thur SEVERE http://www.spc.noaa.gov/

my weather station lightning page Boltek LD250 http://www.bicesterw...uk/StormVue.php and 2 links http://www.strikesta.../sslt/sslt.html hover cursor over it and you click and zoom in http://www.strikestareu.com/

thursday 13th SPC must be able to do something with these will check ECWMF later probably somthing a bit differant to GFS as there above disscusion in my haste i meant to put up the charts next 6 hours on but you get the idea only looks better mind i suspect may be in the same area that got hit hard 26/27th April

wednesday 11th looking good also 10th changeover day SPC disscusion DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0353 AM CDT FRI MAY 06 2011 VALID 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME MORE MERIDIONAL ACROSS THE COUNTRY IN THE MEDIUM RANGE AS THE WEST COAST TROUGH DEEPENS AND THEN BEGINS TO EJECT ENE INTO THE PLAINS BY TUE AND WED. AS THE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT BASIN...SWLY LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL TRANSPORT A VERY STRONG EML ACROSS THE PLAINS FROM THE MEXICAN PLATEAU. AT THE SAME TIME...THERE WILL BE IMPROVING LOW-LEVEL GULF MOISTURE ACROSS THE PLAINS...PARTICULARLY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. DRYLINE TSTM INITIATION IS COMPARATIVELY MORE UNCERTAIN ON MONDAY AFTN THAN ON SUNDAY AS MID-LEVELS FURTHER WARM IN ADVANCE OF THE DIGGING IMPULSE INTO THE DESERT SW. MORE ROBUST SEVERE EVENTS APPEAR LIKELY ON TUESDAY AND...PARTICULARILY...ON WEDNESDAY /DAY 5 AND 6/ AS THE UPPER STORM SYSTEM BODILY MOVES ONTO THE PLAINS. THESE STORMS WILL DEVELOP IN INCREASINGLY LARGE HODOGRAPHS AND BUOYANCY...YIELDING THREATS FOR VERY LARGE HAIL...TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. BEYOND DAY 6...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE INTRODUCES A INCREASING SPREAD ON THE HANDLING OF THE TROUGH AS IT TRANSLATES EWD ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND NERN STATES. THIS RENDERS THE REMAINDER OF THE MEDIUM RANGE PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW TO DELINEATE SVR WEATHER AREAS. ..RACY.. 05/06/2011 hope for thursday also

I am flying with Continental on 9th leaving LRH at 09.20 to Houston then AA to DFW arrive 18.20 then meet up with Pat at BW Irvine ( found out that AA now charge $25 for checked in bags a few days back on domestic flights even though it wasnt implemented when i booked no exceptions they must be copying Easyjet/Ryanair )

watching the latest GFS as they come in looks like we will need a quick getaway on the 10th bit concerned at some of the models for when i arrive in DFW about 18.15 on monday hope there are no diverts or cancellations Heathow to Houston to Dallas Fort Worth

SPC discussion read the last bit lets hope it happens and continues on for a few days at least, also something possible for the last couple of days of tour 1 ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 040759 SPC AC 040759 DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0259 AM CDT WED MAY 04 2011 VALID 071200Z - 121200Z ...DISCUSSION... MODELS DEPICT A WNWLY FLOW REGIME FROM THE PACIFIC NW INTO THE MID ATLANTIC ON SAT/D4 WITH PERHAPS AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE MOVING QUICKLY EWD SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE OH VALLEY. BY THIS TIME...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HAVE BEGUN TO RETURN NWD FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MO VALLEY. ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING SAT MORNING OVER PORTIONS OF IA/MO/IL/IND...SHIFTING EWD AS A LOW LEVEL JET VEERS. SEVERITY OF THIS CONVECTION WILL DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH OF ANY UPPER SUPPORT...BUT AS PREVIOUSLY ALLUDED TO...PREDICTABILITY IS NOT HIGH AT THIS TIME. BY SUN/D5...THERE IS STRONG EVIDENCE THAT A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE WRN STATES WITH AN 80+ KT MID LEVEL JET DIGGING SWD ALONG THE W COAST. THE BOUQUET OF MREF SOLUTIONS AS WELL AS DETERMINISTIC MODELS SHOW LITTLE AGREEMENT ON D5 WITH HOW QUICKLY AND HOW FAR S THIS TROUGH WILL DEVELOP. THIS WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE PROBABILITY OF SEVERE CONVECTION OVER THE SRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS NEAR THE DRYLINE WHERE CAPPING WILL BE A CONCERN...AND ALSO WITH POSSIBLE NOCTURNAL CONVECTION FOCUSED OVER NEB/IA/MO/IL OVERNIGHT WITH A SWLY LOW LEVEL JET. BOTH THESE AREAS HAVE POTENTIAL...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO INTRODUCE ANY SEVERE AREAS WITH SUCH UNCERTAINTY. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD MON/D6 TO WED/D8...THERE WILL LIKELY BE A SEVERE THREAT EACH DAY ALONG THE DRYLINE ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS...AND PERHAPS EXTENDING EWD FROM A SURFACE LOW/WARM FRONT ACROSS THE MIDWESTERN REGION AS THE UPPER TROUGH...AND/OR PIECES OF THE TROUGH EMERGE OVER THE REGION. SEVERE AREAS BEGINNING SUN/MAY 8TH AND LASTING THROUGH ABOUT MAY 10TH ARE LIKELY FORTHCOMING FOR MUCH OF THE CNTRL U.S. AS THE EVENT NEARS AND PREDICTABILITY INCREASES. ..JEWELL.. 05/04/2011

look at the temprature for Wednesday 11th may hot cape

caution when looking at this novice reading the storm chasers handbook as i go ! jumping forward a bit GFS looks good for the 18th may potential Oklahoma Panhandle (almost) on the 00z waitng to see the 12z previous days back to the 11th /12th there looks to be potential perhaps Texas Hill country or a bit further east wind shear not great but there is some there looks to be 2 jets setting up a northern and southern weaker one this looks to be evident when looking at the wind plots as you get higher, correct me if wrong as i am a novice at this. will compare to ECWMF later/ tonight for the 18th back to the 11th May 12th similar but slightly further NE

copied from a post on stormtrack : Tuesday or Wednesday (May 10th/11th) starting to looking interesting per 02.12Z ECMWF. A large bowling ball 500 hPa low with very good meridional flow is indicated with the EC showing 60+ deg F dewpoints advecting northward across west-central Kansas and western Oklahoma. I'm not buying the 02.12Z GFS solution, however, the model has trended to less of a zonal upper pattern to more of an amplified solution. Shear looks good as well. Way to early to obsess about mesoscale details but NWP suggests more of an active convective pattern across the high plains...finally! Think its too early to start a FCST thread and still keeping the trend discussion in this longer range thread. full link http://www.stormtrac...9569#post309569

Big Texan yeh i hope we get there on tour 2 some time i have orders for there Texas Armadilos got leave room in my bag for them grandaughter wants one

worked ok for me on ie9 but seemed a bit slow to load in fact quite a few of websites that i visit seem slow to load on ie9 perhaps ms need to roll out some updates for it as they will hopefully sooner rather than later unless of course they want site managers to update there code

cape ok will probably build as model time frame gets closer need the jet to get a good kink in it to make a good trigger gfs and ecwmf showing from what i can tell differances so not taking any notice of models yet need a much closer time frame to be verifiable postings on stormtrack bye others that hopefully know more than my casual amature knowledge seem to be saying will be ok so everything crossed lets havesome good luck

the jets too far north but looks like there may be some normal storm activity looking forward looks to be a good reload coming but that far out including the charts i posted not worth taking seriously yet

packed camera gear now unpacking it lol woken up by thunder this morning in grey murc. UK may get to use it later on today been peeping with one eye closed just in case at gfs for tour 2 nothing too bad tour 1 good luck starting tomorow slight risk Paul pulls out his magic thoughs days and got us on something sr days last year next day looks be a good lightning and hail day everything crossed that you have a good time as i did last year cannot wait to get to Heathrow on 9th may thats when the tour starts for me

11th May 18z

ariel video just been put on youtube by ABC 33/40 of last nights damage 6m30s in took a bridge out !!!