Sunspot Activity

[pottyprof]

mondy.. me too..

the last few days have seen french and italians on the cb bands in the uk with some great copies.. and only at 4W.. tonight has been fairly quiet tho so i cant see any major show happening..

Edited June 16, 2006 by pottyprof

[Mondy]

Hi mate. The CB will be lively at the moment due to the SP-E season. 28Mhz has been jumping too!

[frogesque]

Nice M Class flare, possibly from the huge sunspot, 898. :blink:

LASCO

[Mondy]

M2.5 was the reading. Biggest since 27 April when an M7.5 occured. Lasted approx 40 mins. Nice blowout though! 898 is falling apart - possibly a few more bursts before it heads to the other side..

Edited July 6, 2006 by Mondy the clumsy

[shuggee]

Check it out - anybody forecast a clear sky later up north?

[kar999]

A bit of wind from a coronal hole I think. KP index perhaps not high enough for us but it's always worth a call there Shuggs thx. B)

From spaceweather.com

" solar wind stream flowing from the indicated coronal hole should reach Earth on August 1st or 2nd.

[frogesque]

I know! We've been here before and been dissapointed but sunspot 904 looks a real cracker and it's growing. Spaceweather

"When sunspots grow very quickly, their magnetic fields can become unstable and explode. Sunspot 904 harbors energy for M-class eruptions and poses a gathering threat for X-flares. Stay tuned for further developments. "

[frogesque]

PRESTO FROM SIDC - RWC BELGIUM

"

PRESTO FROM SIDC - RWC BELGIUM Wed Aug 16 2006, 1309 UT

A post-eruption arcade with coronal dimmings has been observed by GOES-12/SXI (and SOHO/EIT) starting around 07:00 UT on August 16, to the north-west of NOAA AR 0904. It was accompanied by a partial halo CME first seen in the LASCO C2 field of view at 08:30 (after 7 hours of data gap). The arrival of an ICME to the Earth is possible on August 19 and may lead to a geomagnetic storm.

In spite of the arrival of a fast forward shock (detected by SOHO/CELIAS at 16:26 UT on August 15), both solar wind speed and interplanetary magnetic field remain low. We thus do not expect any significant geomagnetic disturbance in the coming hours. "

In short. Sunspot 904 has popped! :lol:

Edit: Latest LASCO C2 Images

Edited August 16, 2006 by frogesque

[Scribbler]

In short. Sunspot 904 has popped! :lol:

http://www.spaceweather.com/swpod2006/16au...utter_strip.jpg

http://www.spaceweather.com/ for other info.

[frogesque]

First frame of CME from LASCO C2

Edit: another beauty

Edited August 16, 2006 by frogesque

[pottyprof]

its all interesting stuff..

some scientists are worried that this next cycle could be very active.. something we dont need but the reversal of the magnetic field could cool the planet.. parrently.. :lol:

case of wait and see.. according to spaceweather.com there was a reversed sun spot that lasted a few hours and so didnt get a number.. this could mean the start of the next cycle.. while the cycle is 11 years.. its looking more like a 22 year cycle due to this reversal of poles in the sun spots..

with all the new techie stuff that has been around over the recent cycle.. its going to be interesting to see if there will be a reversal in global warming observations from space.. and then from the ground..

11 years seems a long time until the positive cycle comes around again.. but itll fly by..

but if a negative cycle is as active as predicted then one wonders if this is the time of proof that man is screwing this planet up? or are we being misled?

i suppose time will tell...

[frogesque]

Reversals happen, I don't think it's anything to get too distracted by. Plenty other things to worry about that could be having a bigger effect.

Meanwhile, back at the ranch Spaceweather

"AURORA WATCH: A coronal mass ejection (CME, movie) is heading toward Earth and could spark a geomagnetic storm when it arrives on August 18th or 19th. The cloud was hurled into space yesterday by a C3-class explosion in the magnetic field of sunspot 904. Sky watchers, prepare for auroras. "

C3 isn't particularly strong but it is headed our way and could have some strong reversed polarity mixed in it so here's hoping for clear skys and a good light show!

[kar999]

WEAK IMPACT: A coronal mass ejection hit Earth today at approximately 1630 UT (12:30 EDT), but the impact was weak. It did not spark a geomagnetic storm. Unless circumstances change, auroras are unlikely tonight.

Oh well, Solar Max is on it's way! What's 5/6 years between friends!

[pottyprof]

Reversals happen, I don't think it's anything to get too distracted by. Plenty other things to worry about that could be having a bigger effect.

im not so sure.. if its as active as expected then im sure we will see some effect.. could this switch cause the turnover of the poles? its been expected for a few years now and apparrently overdue.. as with most things that affect this planet.. according to scientific view that is.. so is scientific view believable??

[parmenides3]

I think you are worrying overmuch about sunspots, pottyprof, but I can't really make out what your concern is; could you please explain?

The next cycle; of what? Sunspot activity. It's due to increase up to and beyond 2012, then reach a minimum in the 2020s-30s, following a proposed cycle which has been observed and measured 22 times before.

Reversal of the magnetic field; of the Earth, or the Sun? What physics would cause this to happen? How would it change the climate even if it was possible?

The idea of the 'reversed sunspot' has been around for a while. Observations of the Sun seem to show that sudden bursts of energy/increased radiation in one area are compensated by a correlative reduction of activity in other areas, which is why there relative stability in the amount of Solar Irradiance on Earth.

Your final point contains a non-sequitur; If it was the Sun having an impact on the climate, then it could'nt be us causing the problem, could it?

There is a lot of speculation around about how the Sun might effect our climate in the near future; much of it is bunkum, and none if it is accepted science. A couple of recent 'scientific' papers on the subject were found to have been financed by the petrochemical industry in the USA, and contained conclusions which didn't follow from the evidence.

For a discussion of Sunsputs & the Sun, try www.Realclimate.org for a scientific summary.

Nothing wrong with speculating, though!

P

[Gray-Wolf]

I think you are worrying overmuch about sunspots, pottyprof, but I can't really make out what your concern is; could you please explain?

The next cycle; of what? Sunspot activity. It's due to increase up to and beyond 2012, then reach a minimum in the 2020s-30s, following a proposed cycle which has been observed and measured 22 times before.

Reversal of the magnetic field; of the Earth, or the Sun? What physics would cause this to happen? How would it change the climate even if it was possible?

The idea of the 'reversed sunspot' has been around for a while. Observations of the Sun seem to show that sudden bursts of energy/increased radiation in one area are compensated by a correlative reduction of activity in other areas, which is why there relative stability in the amount of Solar Irradiance on Earth.

Your final point contains a non-sequitur; If it was the Sun having an impact on the climate, then it could'nt be us causing the problem, could it?

There is a lot of speculation around about how the Sun might effect our climate in the near future; much of it is bunkum, and none if it is accepted science. A couple of recent 'scientific' papers on the subject were found to have been financed by the petrochemical industry in the USA, and contained conclusions which didn't follow from the evidence.

For a discussion of Sunsputs & the Sun, try www.Realclimate.org for a scientific summary.

Nothing wrong with speculating, though!

P

Because our axis is tilted so is our magnetic field as presented to the solar wind. Our magnetic field varies in strength and, if the polarity is 'right', the solar wind can 'push' our magnetosphere to a point that makes it 'flip'. Play with a couple of magnets and remind yourself how easy it is to 'spin' a magnet when you push a like pole towards it. So with a weak magnetic field here on earth and a stong solar flare/CME then it is posible to 'flip' our poles, odds are they'd flip straight back but sometimes the 'flip'; sticks and we have a reversal (as shown in the magnetic 'bandings' of our oceanic crusts) Of course short term reversals ae not recorded in our mid ocean crusts in this way so we have no way of knowing how common a 'flip' is nor its effects in the short term here on Earth. Maybe the Mayan long count calendar is our only reference to short term 'flips' and their time table............

Edited August 19, 2006 by Gray-Wolf

[parmenides3]

Ta, Gw. I get the principle, fine, but sorry, if there's no record of short-term 'flips', I'm not going to accept that they happen; It's just the way I am. I could understand fluctuations, but the kind of reversals you are talking about are large, long-scale events, not the kind of event that Pottyprof seems to be referring to. I don't think a strong Solar Flare would be enough to cause this on its own, anyway, but what do I know?

P

[Gray-Wolf]

Ta, Gw. I get the principle, fine, but sorry, if there's no record of short-term 'flips', I'm not going to accept that they happen; It's just the way I am. I could understand fluctuations, but the kind of reversals you are talking about are large, long-scale events, not the kind of event that Pottyprof seems to be referring to. I don't think a strong Solar Flare would be enough to cause this on its own, anyway, but what do I know?

P

Hi P.

I think that the Earths magnetic field got pushed within a few degrees of a flip a few years back (sorry I'm not being very 'accurate', short term memories shot...........don't know how that happened) when we took a buffeting from a CME. As you say we have no records/folklore about such events and maybe the time periods involved (in terms of human lifetimes) are just to big for us to have a 'racial memory' like the flood myths some cultures have. We could always chew the cud over what a reversal may mean in our 'electronic world' though. Maybe a reversal will mean diddly squat here on earth but then maybe it wouldn't!!

[shuggee]

We're up to KP6 atm. Suddenly shot up - and check that dynamic pressure.

[parmenides3]

We're up to KP6 atm. Suddenly shot up - and check that dynamic pressure.

So that's bad, is it, Shuggee? Will I have to buy a new compass?

P

[shuggee]

Yes - it indicates a fair amount of activitiy. But I think that the national grid is safe.

[parmenides3]

So what's KP then, apart from sauce? I'm sure I could find the answer in one of the other 22 pages, but... hell, I can't be a@*ed.

:)P

[shuggee]

P3 check the pinned thread at the top of the page - you'll find out all you need to know:

http://www.netweather.tv/forum/index.php?s...st&p=295393

[kar999]

We're up to KP6 atm. Suddenly shot up - and check that dynamic pressure.

Yep well spotted Shuggee..

"GEOSTORM ALERT: A moderate geomagnetic storm is in progress . If you live at high latitudes and it's dark, go outside and look for auroras now" (spaceweather.com)

G2 storm currently in progress.

Let's hope it lasts till nightfall. However unless it gets a bit stronger, I'm a bit too far South and besides which it's dark, grey wet and horrid here. I pity the poor folks just up the road from here at the V festival at Weston Park 'cos it's been persisting down all day.

Edited August 19, 2006 by kar999

[shuggee]

Very hazy here unfortunately. Won't be seeing much at all even if it's this far south - fog forecast for later. Typical!