Sunspot Activity

[kar999]

Almost at solar minimum Shuggee. That's not to say there wont be the odd one or two isolated major events.

http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2005/15...minexplodes.htm

[Gray-Wolf]

Almost at solar minimum Shuggee. That's not to say there wont be the odd one or two isolated major events.

http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2005/15...minexplodes.htm

I don't know whether proven folklaw or fact but solar mins are supposed to go hand in hand with more 'settled' conditions here on earth (more and longer lasting high pressures). Could be reassuring for those looking to the East for a bit of winter to travel here eh?

[kar999]

Hope at last!!

Sunspot 848 has developed a complex magnetic field that harbors energy for strong solar flares. Credit: SOHO/MDI

[Mondy]

You folks oop north might have a chance of spotting it tonight?

http://www.orion-drustvo.si/MBKTeam/auroramon.html

Don't thinkso Wibs.

Just the solar wind having a wee blow out.

[kar999]

You folks oop north might have a chance of spotting it tonight?

http://www.orion-drustvo.si/MBKTeam/auroramon.html

Thanks for the call Wibs. I'd also read on another forum that there was a watch alert.

With the KP index at 6 there was every chance of some minor activity visible in Northern UK. I didn't see anything but solar wind blowing and KP as low as 5 can sometimes produce weak displays visible in the far north of the UK.

Edited January 27, 2006 by kar999

[frogesque]

I think the Kp had already fallen by the time it got dark and we were cloudy here so not worth venturing out. Sunspot 848 has been disappointing :blink:

[Mondy]

K index was at 4 earlier.

A index is at 24.

G2 earlier also

[frogesque]

An almost featureless blank sun again yesterday but still enough solar activity to produce a gust of wind lifting the Kp index briefly to 6 last night and triggering high lat. aurora. I went out last night but nothing visible this far south despite being one of the clearest moonless nights this year.

I did see a beautiful bright green meteor (mag -6 ish) with reddish orange scintillation, possibly a Delta Leonid although unfortunately I was driving at the time and could be well off with regard to its track. It might have just been a casual encouter with a sporadic.

Edited February 21, 2006 by frogesque

[Mondy]

An almost featureless blank sun again yesterday

And solar minimum's not for another year yet - various articles suggest the peak(max) could actually occur a lot quicker in the next cycle.

[kar999]

And solar minimum's not for another year yet - various articles suggest the peak(max) could actually occur a lot quicker in the next cycle.

We could be already at the minimum now and not next year.

"Contrary to popular belief," says Hathaway, "the solar cycle is not precisely 11 years long." Its length, measured from minimum to minimum, varies: "The shortest cycles are 9 years, and the longest ones are about 14 years." What makes a cycle long or short? Researchers aren't sure. "We won't even know if the current cycle is long or short--until it's over," he says.

http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2004/18...olarminimum.htm

[frogesque]

:lol: I think yesterday was just a little baby-burp of wind from a coronal hole. Solar min can still produce surprises though so don't give up on it.

[Mondy]

Yeah, if's and but's really, Kar.

There's an update here

With a smoothed chart also included: http://science.msfc.nasa.gov/ssl/pad/solar...n_predict_l.gif

Anyone's guess really. For a fact, radio propagation has nosed-dived within the last year. This time a year ago, lots of exotic stuff coming through. Now - hardly worth monitoring :lol:

[Mondy]

Aurora (A-index) currently at 17, Moderate G2 storm underway. Clear skies here forecast overnight - you never know (but i doubt it)!

Furthermore to solar max, this is interesting reading too: http://www.spacew.com/news/05Mar2005/index.php

G 2 Moderate

Power systems: high-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms, long-duration storms may cause transformer damage.

Spacecraft operations: corrective actions to orientation may be required by ground control; possible changes in drag affect orbit predictions.

Other systems: HF radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes :lol: , and aurora has been seen as low as New York and Idaho (typically 55° geomagnetic lat.).

Edited February 21, 2006 by Mondy the clumsy

[kar999]

Shame it was cloudy over the weekend but despite solar minimum having arrived a nice blast of solar wind from a coronal hole pushed the KP index to 6. There were reports of some sightings in the UK notably green glows low on the horizon.

[Mondy]

At last - some activity!

http://www.spaceweather.com/

http://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov/data/realtime-images.html

[LeeKay]

Not exactly a Aurora predition, but:

Heres a couple of pics i took this afternoon of sunspots 685 and 686, apparently growing in size (bigger than Earth)

Taken in black and white, used 20mm lens through a Meade ETX 90 with a BC&F Solar Filter.

Put on 3x optical zoom off the cam for this one:

Still experimenting with it, the 40mm lens will show the full disk but the posty didnt bring that today

Edited March 31, 2006 by LeeKay

[shuggee]

Bit of activity at the moment - and by looking at Jurgen's excellent photos of today's solar prominence; could that be one of the reasons?

[kar999]

Those photos are great but the activity is mainly due to solar wind rather than prominences on the limb of the sun.

"A brief but strong geomagnetic storm last night sparked auroras as far south as Colorado. Earth has since entered a solar wind stream, raising the possibility of more auroras tonight, mainly over Alaska, Canada and Scandinavia. "

Edited April 9, 2006 by kar999

[frogesque]

Yep, prominances are limb features on the sun and as such are roughly at 90 deg to the Earth and even a CME on the limb is unlikely to cause anything in the way of activity on Earth. Nice to see some sunspots though and at least we might be in with a chance if Solar Minimum has passed.

[shuggee]

Thanks for that boys. Thinking about it - of course stuff we can see on the edge of the sun must be flaring out at 90º away from us

Are we at minimum now - I was under the impressions it's 2007???

[kar999]

Are we at minimum now - I was under the impressions it's 2007???

That was the "planned" date but the cycle isn't always 11 years. I think a lot of people accept we have reached minimum already.

"Contrary to popular belief," says Hathaway, "the solar cycle is not precisely 11 years long." Its length, measured from minimum to minimum, varies: "The shortest cycles are 9 years, and the longest ones are about 14 years." What makes a cycle long or short? Researchers aren't sure. "We won't even know if the current cycle is long or short--until it's over," he says.

http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2004/18...olarminimum.htm

[Mondy]

There's a big 'un coming into view (869)....

Edited April 9, 2006 by Mondy the clumsy

[shuggee]

That was the "planned" date but the cycle isn't always 11 years. I think a lot of people accept we have reached minimum already...

http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2004/18...olarminimum.htm

Cheers Kar - that's very interesting.

[frogesque]

Kp currently at 6

Damn - it's a beatifull clear but sunny day here at the moment. Might be worth keeping an eye out tonight but we're only a day past full moon so you would need very good conditions or an extremely bright aurora to see anything.

Edit: Kp now at 7; 10.50am

Edited April 14, 2006 by frogesque

[Roo]

Just had a warning from aurorawatch about a red alert....seems a little early for the big sunspot 875, so might be a false alarm, but might be worth keeping an eye out!