Sunspot Activity

[shuggee]

Now, I'm a complete rooky on this subject, but with a forecast kp7 - and the kp7 line over the borders of Southern Scotland - is it worth pottering up to a N'ly vantage point tonight?

How often do the indicators change - and is it worth keeping an eye on this through the evening?

[kar999]

If the weather is good at your Latitude Shuggee then find somewhere with little or no light pollution to the North. The G3 geomagnetic storm currently underway may last until this evening if we are lucky.

The indicators are real time and most update every 15minutes. Keep an eye on them particularly the UK one from Aurorawatch.

EDIT: Red alert just received from Aurorawatch. It just needs to keep going for another 12 hours!!

Edited August 24, 2005 by kar999

[Darren Bown]

It does look promising, but has this come at a bad time for the UK? late morning isnt exactly the best, and the weather isnt for great viewing. It's supposed to clear later, so I'm going to remain optimistic!

[kar999]

Issued 10am from spacew.com

MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WARNING

Issued: 09:00 UTC on 24 August 2005Solar Terrestrial Dispatch

www.spacew.com

VALID BEGINNING AT: EFFECTIVE IMMEDIATELY

VALID UNTIL: 23:00 UTC (6 pm EST) ON 25 AUGUST

HIGH RISK PERIOD: 24 AUGUST (UTC DAYS)

MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 24-25 AUGUST

PREDICTED ACTIVITY INDICES: 65, 30, 15, 12 (24 - 27 AUGUST)

POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY: MODERATE TO HIGH

POTENTIAL DURATION OF THIS ACTIVITY: MAIN BELT = 12 HOURS

MINOR BELT = 12-24 HOURS

ESTIMATED OPTIMUM OBSERVING CONDITIONS: NEAR OR PRIOR TO LOCAL MIDNIGHT

EXPECTED LUNAR INTERFERENCE: MODERATE TO HIGH

OVERALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM MIDDLE LATITUDES: FAIR TO GOOD

AURORAL ACTIVITY *AUGUST* BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

(THIS LINE IS VALID *ONLY* IF FAVORABLE STORM CONDITIONS OCCUR)

OREGON TO SOUTHERN IDAHO AND NORTHERN UTAH TO WYOMING TO NEBRASKA TO

NORTHERN MISSOURI TO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS TO KENTUCKY TO VIRGINIA.

ACTIVITY *AUGUST* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

(THIS LINE IS VALID *ONLY* IF FAVORABLE STORM CONDITIONS OCCUR)

CENTRAL FRANCE TO NORTHERN SWITZERLAND TO SOUTHERN GERMANY TO THE CZECH

REPUBLIC TO POLAND TO CENTRAL RUSSIA.

NEW ZELAND AND SOUTHEASTERN AUSTRALIA SHOULD ALSO BE ABLE TO SPOT PERIODS

OF ACTIVITY IF SUITABLE STORM CONDITIONS MATERIALIZE DURING DARKNESS.

SYNOPSIS...

The arrival of a coronal mass ejection from a recent major M5 solar

flare has become much stronger than anticipated. Intense magnetic fields

within the disturbance are currently being observed that have a favorable

orientation for producing periods of strong auroral storm activity. Major to

severe geomagnetic and auroral storming is expected to commence within the

next several hours, particularly if current field orientations persist.

Widespread mid-latitude observations of auroral activity may be observed,

depsite the brightness of the moon. We do not expect the activity to persist

into the evening hours of 24 August over North America.

This warning will remain valid through 24:00 UTC (6 pm EDT) on

25 August. Note that this is 24 hours later than the previous watch that was

released. It will be updated or allowed to expire at that time. For updated

information, visit: http://www.spacew.com/aurora/forum.html. For real-time

plots of current activity, visit: http://www.spacew.com/plots.html

PLEASE REPORT VALID OBSERVATIONS OF AURORAL ACTIVITY TO:

http://www.spacew.com/submitsighting.html

** End of Warning **

Edited August 24, 2005 by kar999

[kar999]

Geomagnetic storm now upgraded to G5 - Extreme and KP index = 9.

Cloudy, wet and daytime here!

[Darren Bown]

So all that warning is directly at the UK for tonight! Oh WOW! might be the best chance ive ever had. Its clear here atm!

[kar999]

We might be in luck Dazmaster but dusk is a fair way off yet. Just need that geomagnetic storm to keep going. It's just stopped raining here so I'm hoping for clear skies.

EDIT: From Spaceweather.com

AURORA ALERT: A coronal mass ejection (CME) hit Earth's magnetic field this morning, setting off a strong geomagnetic storm- In progress. Another CME is heading for Earth and it could intensify the ongoing storm when it strikes.

EDIT at 16:47

Things off the boil slightly now. Storm downgraded to G4 (severe) and KP down to 8. That's still good enough for middle latitude sightings so still worth a look if it holds out till dusk and beyond. CME number 2 may also impact.

Edited August 24, 2005 by kar999

[Darren Bown]

This image looks really interestin! The red is very close to the UK!

[Darren Bown]

I think its to do with the energy in the atmosphere in terms of ions or something... So red=higher chance of aurora. Blue=slight chance.

[Andy Bown]

Richard Angwin (BBC Points West forecaster) even mentioned the chance of the aurora being visible down this far tonight !! I couldn't believe my ears, might be worth a look between 23.00 - midnight if the N sky is as clear as it is now.

[shuggee]

The big graph with the left (y) axis showing the kp index:

Realtes to the furthest south it is likely to be seen:

So KP9 and nearly all of the UK's in with a shot.

[kar999]

Things have died down quite a bit since this morning with a G1 geomagnetic storm still ongoing.KP has fallen to 5. There might still be some chance of some visible activity between dusk and the early hours. The further North you are the better. Check out the Scotish webcams like the Eskdalemuir one on the met office site as well. There was a superb showing on there last winter.

Edited August 24, 2005 by kar999

[Methuselah]

I hope the sky stays clear, I've yet to witness the aurora. I've heard it's rather pretty 

Edit: Looking at that Shuggee, I'll need some luck if I'm to see it 

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Wait until the next Solar max [about 2010-2013 I think] and come up to north Scotty in October or November???

[Methuselah]

One of the problems living this far South 

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Well Laura - you've six years to plan it!!! If you do see it it's well worth the planning though!! Where my wife lives, there's hardly any light polution. What would Mr Wibs say about that idea? It's a memory you don't forget!

[Methuselah]

Well, there's nothing like forward planning. We've been meaning to visit Scotland... 6 years to plan it, should just be able to manage that!

So where are the best places in Scotland to see the aurora?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

The northern half...I'm sure that Sally and I would show you around a bit...It's no-good coming in the summer coz it never gets dark!!

[frogesque]

Sadly this turned out to be a non event for us. By the time it got dark no activity was visible. Pity because I had some lovely clear skys.

[kar999]

Same here and there was quite a bit of cloud. There were sightings reported in Germany (N54 latititude) and Northern Ireland but they were only faint glows at low elevations.

As so often with Aurora, it peaked too soon for us.

[Methuselah]

You never know one day I may just take you up on that!

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I hope so! B)

Lou might be interested too; maybe we could organize a proper trip? Block-book a B&B perhaps??

[frogesque]

Same here and there was quite a bit of cloud. There were sightings reported in Germany (N54 latititude) and Northern Ireland but they were only faint glows at low elevations.

As so often with Aurora, it peaked too soon for us.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Yep, there might just possibly have been the faintest smudge of green fog about 11.30pm but it wasn't worth photographing. I headed out further north and ended up somewhere in the middle of nowhere between Perth and Callander off the A85. Superb sky, gibbous moon with Mars hanging underneath to the east, Milky Way above you could nearly touch and a great clear view to the north with no light pollution but absolutely zilch on the aurora front by 1.00am. A couple of rogue meteors zipped across, the wind died and all I could hear was a distant dog barking and some owls hooting. The absence of noise, especially traffic, was very healing and I have another location earmarked for any really special occasions so I don't regret venturing out.

I also had a close encounter with a fox who seemed suprisingly unconcerned and a forestry ranger who was a bit concerned I might have been poaching 'till I told him what I was doing.

[kar999]

Sounds like an idyllic spot there Frogesque. I’m quite lucky where I live in so far as I don’t get too much light pollution although I do get some from Telford and Wolverhampton to the North West and North East. Last night the Milky Way was clearly visible as a white swathe across the sky.

I’m looking forward to returning to Liddesdale in the Borders in a few weeks time. The sky there is totally free from light pollution and the Milky Way is so spectacular. Unfortunately when I’ve been there in the past it has not coincided with the Aurora but I live in hope. I was however lucky enough to have a splendid view of comet Neat on a previous visit.

[Mondy]

Pfft!!!!!!

Just read a PM from Kar999, dated 24 Aug (cheers Keith) about the solar activity that i've missed Had no idea!!

Solar extreme G5 In all honesty the sky was cloudy every night i was away. Although i was at the perfect location to view it..if the 24 Aug was the Wednesday, that deep depression caused havoc with viewing anything in the sky

Thanks again, Kar

[kar999]

Hi Mondy, Hope you had a nice break. I knew you'd be in the right place to see the Aurora. Unfortunately you were in the right place but at the wrong time. By the time nightfall came, clear skies or not, it had passed its peak here in the UK.

[kar999]

A solar wind stream flowing from the indicated coronal hole could buffet Earth's magnetic field today or tomorrow

G1 geomagnetic storm currently taking place with KP Index = 5 and Bz: 16.4 nT South.

Maybe a little activity posible higher up in the North, unless you're got raging thunderstorms to watch instead!

[Mondy]

Oval looking good at the moment Kar!

But, 'tis cloudy here :huh:

Slight auroral sounding stations (Scandanavian direction) coming through on 28 Mhz on me radio. That particular "band" should really be dead at the moment

Edited August 31, 2005 by Mondy

[kar999]

Is that sporadic-E propagation or something? My Ham radio days are a long way off. If it's cloudy you might as well fire the rig up and increase your Country score list there Mondy! :huh: