Sunspot Activity

[Mondy]

Two biggies on the Sun's horizon soon to be in view...check out the size of flares already!!

http://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov/data/realtime/c2/

[Mondy]

Just received this.

Won't make sense to many, but i've highlighted the main parts.

While this bulletin is written early Friday UTC a severe geomagnetic

storm rages. This is being written around 0600z on May 30, and for

the past three 3-hour reporting periods the planetary K index has

been 8, indicating extremely active conditions. This is a shame,

because for some time now I've been hoping that the planetary A

index would drop below 10 around May 31, but the last day that

projection was shown at

<http://sec.noaa.gov/ftpmenu/forecasts/45DF.html>http://sec.noaa.gov/ftpmenu/forecasts/45DF.html

was May 26. A late

forecast at 0359z on May 30 shows the projected planetary A index

for May 30 through June 2 as 60, 40, 25 and 20, followed by an A of

30 for June 3-5, 35 for June 6, and 30 again on June 7.

On May 29 earth was hit by two coronal mass ejections. One was at

1215z and the other at 1900z. A third coronal mass ejection may hit

us on Friday, May 30. Rather than working HF, now seems a good time

for six-meter operations and observing aurora. Solar flux over the

next few days (May 30 through June 2) is predicted at 145, 140, 135

and 125.

Jim Tabor, KU5S has an interesting program called GeoAlert Wizard,

which he has just updated. It sits in the system tray on your PC

and grabs solar and geophysical data automatically off the internet.

Check it out at www.taborsoft.com/gawiz.

In other words, it's being written in advance.

EDIT2: Is this a wind-up??

Edited May 27, 2005 by MM0NDX

[Mondy]

ALERT: A geomagnetic storm is possible tonight: be alert for auroras. Why? The interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) near Earth has tipped south. South-tipping IMFs fuel geomagnetic storms.

more info here: http://www.spaceweather.com/glossary/imf.html

[Darren Bown]

I hope this isnt going to happen too early, the black line has dipped sharply and the bars are now orange. Please let it start later on! i want to see the aurorae, never seen one!

[Mondy]

Storm underway Aurora may well be visible tonight in the UK.

http://www.net-weather.co.uk/forum/index.php?showtopic=14968

G3 Geo storm also occured over the past few hours. Real possibility tonight:

G 3 Strong

Power systems: voltage corrections may be required, false alarms triggered on some protection devices.

Spacecraft operations: surface charging may occur on satellite components, drag may increase on low-Earth-orbit satellites, and corrections may be needed for orientation problems.

Other systems: intermittent satellite navigation and low-frequency radio navigation problems may occur, HF radio may be intermittent, and aurora has been seen as low as Illinois and Oregon (typically 50° geomagnetic lat.)**.

Edited May 30, 2005 by MM0NDX

[Darren Bown]

its shot up, but then gone down, seems to be a little sporadic!

[Mondy]

Hi Daz. As long as the K-index remains over 6 or 7, very good chance of a sighting.

[Mondy]

BTW, great little site i found earlier..

http://www.ips.gov.au/Space_Weather

Edited May 30, 2005 by MM0NDX

[Darren Bown]

Looks like I'm off to the viaduct tonight to see it!

[Mondy]

The "oval" at the bottom of the linked page (the one Kar999 pinned) still shows brownish colour. To be honest it's 50-50 at the mo..

[Weather-history]

Looks like I'm off to the viaduct tonight to see it!

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Bad news Dazmaster, it is clouding up in our part of the world. Added to the fact we have a lingering twilight doesn't help

[Mondy]

Even more bad news i reckon...1% chance now of Aurora

[kar999]

Just got back after a week in wet and cold Scotland (* see below) and looking at activity thought maybe there might be a chance of Aurora tonight. Unfortunately I got the alert at 8am this morning so I think its peaked too soon here yet again. G3 storm now downgraded to G2 (and cloudy as Mr Data says!) KP Index also down to 6.

*(Why is it that London has a record high May temperature (highest since May 1943 or something I heard) whilst I'm wrapped in thermals and oil skins in Scotland!?) P.S. Had a cracking time all the same!

Edited May 30, 2005 by kar999

[Mondy]

Hi Kar. Welcome back to NW

Glad you had a wonderful time in Jockistan Yep, weather as usual is horrid.

Aurora activity peaked yet again too early as you say. Oh well, it's the thoughts that count!

[kar999]

Thanks Dx With the KP index at 6 there's still a remote chance, but its pretty optimistic.

[Mondy]

What do you make of the posting at the top of this page Kar...seems to be lacking in clarity?

EDIT: I did download http://www.taborsoft.com/gawiz. Pretty good..

Edited May 30, 2005 by MM0NDX

[Darren Bown]

The reds in the statistical aroura oval picture seems to have moved a little further south....

[Mondy]

K-index back upto 7 Daz..if it goes to 9, we're laughing.

Edited May 30, 2005 by MM0NDX

[Darren Bown]

that being a happy laugh? not a sarcastic one?

[Mondy]

Cloud here anyway, and that's not a sarcastic laugh

[kar999]

What do you make of the posting at the top of this page Kar...seems to be lacking in clarity?

EDIT: I did download http://www.taborsoft.com/gawiz. Pretty good..

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Sorry DX, didn't read this post till just ... (too busy unpacking!)... will check out that download though.

As for Aurora tonight... G3 storm in progress and KP index at 7 but too cloudy here under the twilight at this latitude to see anything major.

[Greenman]

3-day Solar-Geophysical Forecast issued May 30 at 22:00 UTC

Solar Activity Forecast:

Solar activity is expected to be very low to low.

Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active with minor storm periods possible on 31 May. Conditions are expected to abate until a possible weak coronal hole high speed stream will move into geoeffective position on 02 May.

Latest Sun image

[kar999]

Sunspot 772 is growing and now poses a threat for M-class solar flares.

(Credit: SOHO/MDI)

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 152 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Jun 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31/2100Z

to 01/2100Z: Solar activity was moderate. Region 772 (S18E36)

produced an M1 x-ray flare at 0243 UTC with associated type II

sweep. The region generated numerous C-class events during the day

as well. Data indicate a modest degree of magnetic complexity and

growth in white light. Elsewhere, new region 773 (S12E76) rotated

into view with mature leader and follower spots.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low.

Region 772 should continue to produce C-class activity with an

isolated M-class flare possible.

Edited June 2, 2005 by kar999

[kar999]

Solar activity is expected to be low,

but there is a slight chance for an isolated M-class event.

Regions 772 and 776 are the most likely sources for activity although

Region 775 might also contribute if the current growth trend continues.

(Credit SOHO/MDI)

[Mondy]

Changed since yesterday, Sunspot 776 is growing quickly and might now pose a threat for strong solar flares..

Edited June 9, 2005 by MM0NDX