Sunspot Activity

[kar999]

Well spotted Mondy!

Region 776 (S06E33) produced multiple B and C-class flares today. The largest was a C2 x-ray flare that occurred at 08/0625Z. There was some visible growth seen in sunspot area. Region 775 (N10E21) underwent growth in two of the Satellite sunspots which now appear to be attached to the dominant central sunspot. Magnetic analysis indicates this region to have beta-gamma-delta characteristics.

Regions 775 and 776 both have the potential of producing isolated M-class flares.

Both these guys are on the right side of the sun to keep rotating our way as they grow.

Click image for larger picture.

(credit SOHO/MDI)

[Mondy]

Activity at last Kar

SOLAR DAILY FLARE FORECAST ( >= M class)

from LEARMONTH SPOTS SUMMARY 0015 UT ON 08/06/05

RGN# Class Rate Prob

0772 DAO 0.11 10.2%

0773 DAO 0.11 10.2%

0774 AXX 0.02 1.8%

0775 DHO 0.22 19.9%

0776 DKO 0.30 26.0%

Total regions = 5 Flare Rate = 0.8/day

Daily flare probability = 53.1%

776 is definetly worth keeping an eye on.

http://www.ips.gov.au/Solar/3/6

[Darren Bown]

According to spaceweather, there are chances of M or X class flares from 775 and/or 776 as well! Keep watching!

Daz

[SP1986]

It's a stupid thing to do but I looked directly at the sun yesterday for a spilt second and the bright 'shadow' that imprinted in my eyes left what looked like a massive flare coming off the sun - about the diameter of the sun!

[kar999]

More likely to have been a reaction from your retina! B)

(Credit SOHO)

Edited June 11, 2005 by kar999

[kar999]

Amber Alert received 18:00 BST "Possible Sudden Storm Commencement".

Bz has dipped significantly South is the probable cause which could lead to geomagnetic storm activity. KP index is currently only 4 and with the twilight and cloud I doubt if there will be any visible action here.

As always check the pinned thread above for the latest data.

[Mondy]

If anything Kar it's a minor storm. Certainly, a minor radio blackout is forecast

[kar999]

G2 (Moderate) Geomagnetic Storm ongoing but not expected to last till this evening here....

Continued southward Bz observed late on 12 June will likely result in minor and isolated major storming early on 13 June. Activity should subside late on 13 June. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on 14 and 15 June, with isolated active conditions possible.

Edited June 13, 2005 by kar999

[TreizeVents]

3-day Solar-Geophysical Forecast issued Jun 15 at 22:00 UTC

Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be predominantly unsettled with a chance for isolated active periods on 16 June as a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream rotates into a geoeffective position. Isolated minor to major storming is possible on 17 June due to the effects of CME activity associated with the C4 and C7 flares on 14 June. Conditions are expected to decrease to unsettled to active on 18 June

[Mondy]

And your point being?

[kar999]

Mondy, that post threw me as well at first till I realised the quote is the latest forecast not a quote from an earlier post!

TreizeVents, lets hope there is some activity on the 17th. I suspect if there is any activity it may not be strong enough to see in our twilight skies.

Edited June 16, 2005 by kar999

[Mondy]

Doh! So it is...oops

Sunspot 779 has also emerged overnight. Growing very quickly.

[Mondy]

M2 flare recently occured. Strongest for some time. G2 and R1 storm in progress. Coupled with the CME, slight chance of Aurora. But very slight. Also needs to clear up here, cloudwise!

[Mondy]

Who said we're nearing sunspot minimum? It's covered in spots at the mo!

http://www.spaceweather.com/

[Kain]

These must have popped up over night!

This solar minimum is pretty active.

Kain

[Mondy]

As has been posted elsewhere, sunspots 783 and 786 now pose threats for M-class flares.

[Mondy]

SOLAR ACTIVITY: Fast-growing sunspot 786 has an unstable magnetic field that poses a threat for powerful X-class solar flares. NOAA forecasters estimate a 5% chance of such an explosion during the next 24 hours.

EDIT: On the subject of sunspots, there were nil recorded on the Sun at one point last week, yesterday 192 were recorded! Sunspot minima is supposedly on the way!

Edited July 5, 2005 by Mondy

[Mondy]

M4 flare occured at 1625UTC

Sunspot 786 still bubbling away - 10% chance now of X-class flare.

[kar999]

Does this increase the chances of seeing an Aurora Borealis (spelling?) sometime soon? Or is this level of solar activity around normal?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Solar activity intensified on July 7th with an M4-class explosion near fast-changing sunspot 786. The blast hurled a faint coronal mass ejection toward Earth, which could spark a mild geomagnetic storm when it arrives on July 9th or 10th. High-latitude sky watchers should be alert for auroras.

Because the explosion only caused a faint coronal mass ejection, mid-latitudes like most of the UK (except Northern Scotland) are unlikely to see any major activity. Always worth a look low on the Northern horizon though if activity starts especially at your location. Weather permitting of course!

Edited July 8, 2005 by kar999

[frogesque]

Looks as if this has just started to kick in, Kp readings are still showing low but Bz is now about -8 deg (south) and the SEC: POES Auroral Activity is at level 9 (usually good enough for at least some aurora here) Hope it keeps up until the sky starts to get dark.

Keep an eye on the latest 'sticky' Aurora Predictions, Real Time Data topic header on this forum.

[Methuselah]

Damn it! It won't get dark enough up here...

[Mondy]

AURORA WATCH: A coronal mass ejection is heading toward Earth, and mild geomagnetic storms are possible when it arrives tonight or tomorrow. High-latitude sky watchers should be alert for auroras.

Not gonna be strong enough for these areas. High latitude is nowhere near us

Kp index is only at 4 too...needs to be above 6 if anything happens here.

Will watch though. X-class flare still a possibilty from region 786. That would certainly help if it did erupt

[frogesque]

Peter Tattum:

Yeah, it's a bit of stretch for me too especially if its on the N. horizon. Best bet will be between 1.00 and 2.00 am looking slighly west of north unless it's a full corona directly overhead (some hopes). You never know though and the camera is charged up ready roll!

Moon should be nice, just a sliver, and there's always Venus and Mars to have a squint at.

Edit: Wooohoo, Activity level now at 10

Edited July 9, 2005 by frogesque

[Mondy]

We need the green oval to go brown, frogesque.

It's just skimming the top of the UK at the mo,but still showing green.

[frogesque]

We need the green oval to go brown, frogesque.

It's just skimming the top of the UK at the mo,but still showing green.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Yep, disapointing After a brilliant hot and sultry day I'm clouded out now. What little clear sky I could see an hour ago showed no signs of activity.