Sunspot Activity

[frogesque]

Watching this one closely Mondy. I know it can seriously mess with telecoms but a littlebitty X20 ( ) blasted directly towards earth would fairly light up the lengthening nights :blink:

No Astronomical night here yet but we now have about 3.5 hours of Nautical nightime.

[Mondy]

Not sure of that phrase either Think it's to do with a fireworks extravaganza in the sky while the northern lights beam down?? :blink:

Edited July 30, 2005 by Mondy

[Mondy]

AURORA ALERT: A coronal mass ejection (CME) is heading toward Earth following an X-class explosion from sunspot 792 on July 30th. Sky watchers should be alert for auroras when the CME arrives on July 31st or August 1st. The display, if there is one, shouldn't be intense; the CME was not squarely Earth-directed, which reduces its likely impact.

SUNSPOTS: Sunspot 792, which rounded the sun's eastern limb yesterday, poses a growing threat for Earth-directed explosions--and that's not all. At least one more active region could emerge in the days ahead. Towering magnetic fields jutting over the sun's eastern limb--the same place sunspot 792 came from--signal a new batch of sunspots approaching. http://www.spaceweather.com/

[frogesque]

What's Nautical nightime?? Sorry for being so thick!!!!

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Sorry about that that - bit of a misnomer on my part. Darkness of the sky is defined in terms of Civil, Nautical and Astronomical twighlight

US Naval Observatory

Twilight. There are three kinds of twilight defined: civil twilight, nautical twilight, and astronomical twilight. For computational purposes, civil twilight begins before sunrise and ends after sunset when the geometric zenith distance of the center of the Sun is 96 degrees - 6 degrees below a horizontal plane. The corresponding solar zenith distances for nautical and astronomical twilight are 102 and 108 degrees, respectively. That is, at the dark limit of nautical twilight, the center of the Sun is geometrically 12 degrees below a horizontal plane; and at the dark limit of astronomical twilight, the center of the Sun is geometrically 18 degrees below a horizontal plane.

Heavens Above gives details of sunrise, sunset and twighlight times for any given location. There's also loads of other useful info on moon and planetary data and satelite observing. It's not essential but well worth registering for the site, especially if you have more than one favorite observing places.

[Mondy]

AURORA WATCH: Mild auroras are possible tonight when a coronal mass ejection (CME) brushes past Earth's magnetic field. The CME was blasted into space on July 30th by an X-class explosion from sunspot 792. Because the blast wasn't squarely Earth-directed, the CME's impact will be, at most, glancing. This reduces the likelihood of a very intense display.

Sprawling sunspot 792 has a complicated magnetic field that harbors energy for powerful X-class solar flares. The chance of an Earth-directed explosion is increasing as the sun's rotation turns the active region more and more to face our planet. Solar activity should remain high.

75% M-class flares

20% X-class flares

Very decent activity at last.

[kar999]

Updated: 10:15UTC 01 August (6:15 am EDT, 01 August) (spacew)

Geomagnetic and Auroral Activity Update

A coronal mass ejection (from the recent X1.3 major flare) has arrived, but is not expected to be particularly geoeffective. As a result, only modest enhancements in geomagnetic and high-latitude auroral activity is anticipated. Additional potentially stronger CME's are possible during the next week.

Solar Activity Update

Region 792 remains capable of producing isolated major solar flares (including possible X-class events). Any energetic events from this region will now likely involve an Earthward-directed coronal mass ejection.

Edited August 1, 2005 by kar999

[summer blizzard]

Great news, how many sunspots are there at the moment?????????????????

[Mondy]

110 sunspots yesterday, 69 day before and 29 the day before that. Prior to that five consecutive days of no sunspots recorded. Vast improvement, but remember the cycle is not at the all time low yet.ie, expect many days of nil activity..

[Mondy]

Couple more nice clickable sites for those interested:

http://beauty.nascom.nasa.gov/arm//latest/

http://www.lmsal.com/solarsoft/latest_events/

Sunspots 792,794 and 795 look potently active

Edited August 1, 2005 by Mondy

[summer blizzard]

I hope there are not many sunspots during the winter.

[kar999]

Why do you say that Summer Blizzard?

Winter is the best time to visually to see Aurora because there is little or no twilight.

[kar999]

Mondy in answer to this question:

http://www.net-weather.co.uk/forum/index.p...ndpost&p=400082

Here's something I found to confirm my answer:

A fleet of spacecraft dispersed throughout the solar system gave the best picture to date of the effects of blast waves from solar storms as they propagate through the solar system.

The "Halloween" solar storms in October-November 2003 were the most powerful ever measured. The storms' effects on Earth were severe enough to cause the rerouting of aircraft, affect satellite operations, and precipitate a power failure in Malmoe, Sweden. Long-distance radio communications were disrupted because of the effects on the ionosphere, and northern lights (aurora borealis) were seen as far south as Florida.

No NASA satellites near Earth were severely damaged by the storms. The International Space Station astronauts curtailed some of their activities and took shelter in the Russian-supplied Service Module several times during the storm.

[Mondy]

Thanks again.

Am i getting confused with the X20 and X48 flare? I 'tink i am..

[kar999]

No prob Mondy. I think I refered to the storm as last year not autumn 2003.

It's old age kicking in for both of us!

Edited August 2, 2005 by kar999

[Mondy]

Do you know something. What i'd give for an X-20 flare right now, with continued nights of clear skies. Actually, call me perverse, but i wouldn't mind seeing what happened to earth if the biggest flare to be recorded was just around the corner.

Providing we're all safe from radiation

Things must be bad at the moment. Even Alaska has no Northern Lights and is cloudy http://salmon.nict.go.jp/live/aurora_cam/l...rora_cam_e.html

Edited August 2, 2005 by Mondy

[frogesque]

Soooo... while we're all waiting for a decent CME, here's one I did earlier with a borrowed camera (9th. Nov 04)

I didn't have a camera for the October/Nov 03 events but they were astounding. A red glow covered 3/4 of the sky bathing Mars (still very bright after the August close aproach) in an erie glow. To the North the colours were fantastic greens blues and pinks and it was light enough to see the time on my watch at midnight. First time I saw a full corona too with fast pulses flickering across the sky. I was out all night!

[Mondy]

Activity has decreased the past 24hrs.

[summer blizzard]

What is sunspot activity like today????????????????

[frogesque]

What is sunspot activity like today????????????????

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Pretty quiet 792 has been a flop since it apeared on the Earth facing surface of the sun and is now diminishing as it traverses off the eastern limb. 794 and 795 are the only other spots visible at the moment but don't pose any threat for spectacular flares. Pity because the moon is just a crescent and sets early tonight so there will be little light interferance and we have just started to get really dark skys.

One of the joys of aurora chasing in the UK. When all the conditions are right they are spectacular and have more subtle colours than from more northerly latitudes but it doesn't happen that often.

Edited August 8, 2005 by frogesque

[kar999]

Oh to be in Alaska....

... and I bet it's still relatively mild there right now.

(From spaceweather.com)

"While checking the fish smoker around 2a.m. on August 10th, I was treated to the first display of the season," says Daryl Pederson of Girdwood, Alaska, who took the picture above. "In my twenty years of aurora photography this is the earliest I have been able to shoot them in southcentral Alaska."

Superb stuff!!

[frogesque]

From spaceweather.com 23 Aug 05:

AURORA ALERT: Sunspot 798 exploded twice yesterday, August 22nd, and hurled a pair of coronal mass ejections (CMEs: #1, #2) toward Earth. Geomagnetic storms are possible when the clouds arrive on August 23rd and 24th. Sky watchers, particularly those in Alaska and Canada, should be alert for auroras

I don't know yet whether these will be strong enough for aurora in the UK but if you have clear skies might be worth looking Northwards after dark. Terrestial weather forecast is not good though

Check pinned thread Aurora Predictions for the latest update on indicators.

[frogesque]

Looks as if the CME from 798 has just arrived and has a huge Bz (-ve South) component! Indicators are going extreme!

[kar999]

I spotted that too frogesque. Good timing for Alaska as it's the middle of the night there. Not much use to us unless it holds out till tonight... and the clouds clear!

[frogesque]

Yep, hope this holds out. CME #2 should be arriving sometime soon as well so maybe we will get a chance later.

[kar999]

It looks like its cloudy in Alaska as well.

The Aurora Live

EDIT: Amber alert text just received from Aurorawatch.

Edited August 24, 2005 by kar999