General Winter Discussion

[ChartViewer]

just seen the bbc news 24 and they are now saying blizzard conditions but stopped short of saying where

Real marginal call Andy, not sure lower levels are going to see much snow

More a rainy/sleety mix.hope for you I am wrong. Hertford doesnt seem to fare well when Snowy conditions are around if my memory serves me well?

I think as has been pointed out a real waiting game right up to the last few runs.......16 more to go yet

Subtle changes on every run will make this a last minute call where or if it happens.

Hope your under some heavy snow come Friday though mate

Regards

CV

Edited November 21, 2005 by ChartViewer

[Andy H]

Real marginal call Andy, not sure lower levels are going to see much snow

More a rainy/sleety mix.hope for you I am wrong. Hertford doesnt seem to fare well when Snowy conditions are around if my memory serves me well?

I think as has been pointed out a real waiting game right up to the last few runs.......16 more to go yet

Subtle changes on every run will make this a last minute call where or if it happens.

Hope your under some heavy snow come Friday though mate

Regards

CV

hertford never gets it but i think the thing about the bbc forcast tonight is they have not mentioned any snow untill tonight and now its blizzard conditions then they finished not saying where it could hit and which areas will be affected typical of the bbc i think once wednesday comes they will stick there neck out and say which areas will be hit

but knowing hertford they will say everywhere will get snow apart from hertford

[roberthines]

Seen our local weather tonight. Looks were going to get quite a bit of snow on thursday here in county durham and on friday too.

[ChartViewer]

but knowing hertford they will say everywhere will get snow apart from hertford

Lea Valley area mate....Not sure of height there but you are right, It aint a good place to live if you want Snow

Regards

[Mondy]

Morning all

I like the look of this!

[Gray-Wolf]

Well the H.P. is now starting to 'pull apart'. I suppose we can start to have a better idea of how this will play out as the H.P. drags off westwards.

[Mondy]

Totally agree GW..will have a much better idea when it shifts out the way and lets the cold air in. Let the fun commence

Edited November 22, 2005 by Mondy

[PersianPaladin]

Totally agree GW..will have a much better idea when it shifts out the way and lets the cold air in. Let the fun commence

Or maybe we will get a Bartlett.

[Tom Montalbano]

Morning all,

Now for a bit of fun.

WHICH LOCATION WILL BE FIRST TO RECEIVE A VISIT FROM A BBC BREAKFAST FORECASTER SHOULD THERE BE SNOW?

PRICES & FORM GUIDE BY HONEST TOM.

2/1 11/10 - HIGHLAND & ABERDEENSHIRE. Worthy favourite & very useful early season performer. Came in for a blizzard of money when tipping expert Steve Murr flagged up Huntly as a prime location for snow a few days ago. Must surely go close esp. if Carole Kirkwood is given the mount as she could stay with relatives thereby saving the BBC on expense budget. Likely to struggle against media biased southern based runners later on in the season as BBC budget runs out. Will have advantage on other runners as likely to reach starting post first in up coming cold blast.

5/2 - N.YORK MOORS. Has perfect profile on northerly tracks & many times course winner sure to give fav. a good run for his money if not giving away to much ground at the start. Certain winner later in the season.

5/1 - PENNINES. Could well go close if snow restricted to high ground like Alston ( fav. of reporters & forecasters alike).

8/1 - PERTHSHIRE. 2nd string to highly fancied northern neighbour & favourite. One to note if C.Kirkwood gets the nod & fancys a bit of shopping in Perth.

10/1 - SHETLANDS. On paper would take all the beating but far too remote and harsh for pampered southern based weather girls. Do the BBC know where it is anyway?

16/1 - N.IRELAND. Plucky winner of an event a couple of seasons when given a brave ride by C.Kirkwood as she was nearly unseated in a blizzard just outside Belfast. Could surprise at a decent price if adapting to track.

33/1 - CUMBRIA. Possibly unsuited by track of up coming blast but one to note later on in the season on a N.W. track. Will OON be tempted?

66/1 - LINCS. & E.ANGLIA. Probably too early in the season for this one & a bit to find on form with N.YORK MOORS. Sure to pop up later in the season if given the chance on N.E. track. ( Norwich a fav. with forecasters & reporters alike.)

200/1 - ESSEX & KENT. Again too early in season & stable rumours suggest running too high a temp. to figure. But should this classy individual be given a chance on N.E/E. tracks later on in the season must not be missed. Very close to southern based media & would save a great deal on BBC expense budgets.

Might be worth an ante-post punt for later in the season if an easterly track is hinted at, prices would shorten dramatically nearer the event.

OTHERS ON REQUEST.

WEATHERWISE SELECTION (Already advised Ante-Post): HIGHLAND & ABERDEENSHIRE 20 pts @ 2/1.

NB. Prices subject to massive fluctuation and any prospective punter likely to be told that the cleaners have had the price anyway.

Regards,

Tom.

[Tucco]

16/1 - N.IRELAND. Plucky winner of an event a couple of seasons when given a brave ride by C.Kirkwood as she was nearly unseated in a blizzard just outside Belfast. Could surprise at a decent price if adapting to track.

Good odds on N Ireland for Friday. Monday N York Moors or Highlands. What odds on Datmoor ? Close to Met office good in a Northerly? Ground firm after a few frosts.

Mark

Barnard Castle,Co Durham

[Tom Montalbano]

Morning Tucco,

Nice one. As for your price inquiry N.Ireland now 3/1. I work for a Bookmaker, what do you expect, charity?

Regards,

Tom.

[Shiny_Bottom_1]

The chances of snow in the short term for around here, does seemed to have diminished. Still some chance, but the window of cold air + ppn is quite small now.

However, in the long run, things continue to look good the temps to keep lower.

[noggin]

Deflated or what

12 degrees and rain for me tomorrow, according to BBC online. Can hardly wait.

Ah, well, it was a nice ride whilst it lasted!

[Shiny_Bottom_1]

I think one of the issues, and perhaps difficulties, is timing the cold air with the ppn. As the warm air passes over the uk, we will see a rise in temp. It just depends on how quickly we can move the cold air in, and hit the ppn.

It could be quite exciting, and similar to an incident last winter.

[noggin]

I think one of the issues, and perhaps difficulties, is timing the cold air with the ppn. As the warm air passes over the uk, we will see a rise in temp. It just depends on how quickly we can move the cold air in, and hit the ppn.

It could be quite exciting, and similar to an incident last winter.

Thanks for that useful info. So it's all really a bit of a knife-edge situation, then?

Just in case it turns out to be a non-event, I'm thinking of starting up a "how un-snowy was it for you?" thread later on!

[Shiny_Bottom_1]

Very good noggin.

I think in the long run, no matter what happens over the next few days, there is potential for the further snow/sleet posabilities.

ATM, temps look like staying average to below average.

What we currently have is something we havent had in a long while...cold weather. And its only the end of Autumn

[Weather-history]

Fax chart for Monday

http://weather.noaa.gov/pub/fax/PPVP89.TIF

[PersianPaladin]

Hey! According to your 'Snow Reports' it has already snowed in parts of England on 16th November!

I haven't seen any here!

[Shiny_Bottom_1]

Fax chart for Monday

http://weather.noaa.gov/pub/fax/PPVP89.TIF

Very interesting Mr D. It will be interesting to see how the fax charts develop over the next few days for Monday. Looks potentially good for the east/central england.

[tugmistress]

I saw this and "cripes, that wind is going to be evil" ..... is it still looking like that?

Morning all,

Now for a bit of fun.

WHICH LOCATION WILL BE FIRST TO RECEIVE A VISIT FROM A BBC BREAKFAST FORECASTER SHOULD THERE BE SNOW?

Well i bet it wont be here! no one knows where we are

Edited November 23, 2005 by tugmistress

[shuggee]

That is a very good map there Tuggy

Thursday night into Friday is the interesting 12-18 hours that many evne on lower ground to the north will see the white stuff falling at those dam values

[tugmistress]

Hi shuggee,

tbh i only copied it from this thread on an earlier posting..... no idea where to find it!

[shuggee]

Alex Deakin has just been in the News24 studio answering questions about the METO's LRF. It was very good humoured - and he's quite a shy chap (cute?!)!

Anyway, he said that the summer SSTs (yes he said that on the telly!) give a good indication of the following winter's pressure patterns. And it is because of these meaurements that they are expecting the pressure to be 'skew-wif' this winter; with less of a westerly flow and more frequent easterlies bringing Russian/Siberian air. Probability 60-70%.

Interestingly he was expicit that they are not expecting a 62/63 but maybe the coldest for a decade or so.

So sticking to the METO line - with a decent explanation. Good to see

[Tom Montalbano]

Evening all,

I feel like a grumpy old mans rant tonight.

I suppose its just a bit of weather geek snobbishness but we seem to have caught the modern day disease of having to label everything inappropriately. I must admit to being guilty of it myself when posting on here, probably

for the sake of brevity like everyone else. It`s most notable when discussing synoptics.

Any rise in pressure to the south of us in winter is now a Bartlett high, likewise any rise in pressure over Norway, Sweden & Finland is a Scandinavian high.

The one that really bugs me is "Channel low", as in "is that a "Channel low" I can see developing at T120."

Now this seems to be attributed to the slightest cyclonic curvature of an isobar that happens to find itself over the English Channel no matter in which direction the poor thing has arrived from. Now it might be a low and over the channel but its not a Channel low as we know it ......Jim.

I`ve even heard the term used in summer! Aaaghh!.

Now when I was a lad (cue brass section and Hovis advert)...............and snow was streaming down, I would have to go to shops and get 2/6d worth of Esso Blue so the whole family could huddle round the parrafin stove in the kitchen, layer of ice forming on your cornflakes, -8c on your paper-round (on the milder days.)

None of that namby-pamby central heating, oh no. No sitting in nice warm bedrooms playing with computer games

when I was a kid. I would amuse myself by chipping ice off the inside of my bedroom windows or by making patterns on the frosty glass. You young-uns don`t know you`re alive. D`ya wanna mint lovey? I digress.

My understanding of a "Channel low" is that it`s an area of low pressure moving from w/s.w in winter into a large block of high pressure and frigid air to the N.& E. of us and a battle between mild & cold air results, with attendant heavy snow.This is what the term meant in the 60`s, 70`s & 80`s. but since then it`s been dumbed down. Below are a couple of classic examples:

30th Dec.1962 http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/19...00119621230.gif

The resultant snowstorm added to the very decent snowfall in the south on the 26th/27th.

31st Dec.1978 http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/19...00119781231.gif

I like to think of this as a retreating channel low. For all of the preceeding week low pressure had been forced further & further south across the Atlantic by a powerful block of high pressure stretching at times between Greenland as far as W.Russia. Snow lovers in the south could not have wished for a better track for this low as it moved due east up the channel & out into C.Europe.

So in my opinion this kind of movement of an area of low pressure typically is what should be termed as a "Channel low".

Along with the other examples I`ve quoted, these set-ups are unique and only occur when all the requisite factors are in place and should not be confused with vaguely similar synoptics.

Rant over & no offence meant, I suppose I`m just a sad old man wishing for a return of the winters of his childhood.

Who knows perhaps this winter?

Regards,

Tom.

[Bottesford]

Well it feels positively balmy this morning - 8C! I even took my hat off as I was cycling in. Very dull tho. It's getting ready for tonight...