General Winter Discussion

[Coopsy]

It's Dan Corbett

Thats the fella. Brings a different angle to the forecasting. Such quotes as...'look at this little fella' talking about fronts.

[tinybill]

looling at our 5 day local weather out look they said the east coast could expect some snow at the end of the week

[noggin]

It looks like us in S Glos will be having snow to the left of us and snow to the right of us and that's it Stuck in the middle with a big fat nothing

It'sno fair I'm feeling all deflated

I feel it is not even worth hoping...all that I have seen in the way of charts and the Countryfile forecast show nothing for us.

What an old misery I am

[J10]

Not much at all JS. A few very light flurries here and there. Really gutted reading everyones joy on here

How often do these Wesyerlies occur??

Do you think this upcoming spell well affect me??

Cheers WW

A couple of recent events parts of Wales did well in

Notably 25-26 Feb 04

Charts

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/20...00120040226.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/20...00220040226.gif

Which part of SE Wales do you live in as that can make a big difference.

[shuggee]

I know it's an old joke - but for the newer members of the Board:

"Computer says snow"

[izi]

bbc website 8oC on friday inscotland!

[noggin]

For us, 8 degrees and rain on Thursday and 6 degrees and sunny on Friday. I'm thinking of moving.

Ah, well, I feel better now that I have accepted that we are not going to get any snow here.

All of this rollercoastering had done nothing for my blood pressure, anyway.

[dodge]

When was the BBC Online 5-Day forecast ever right?

Edited November 20, 2005 by dodgeredee

[WINTRY WALES]

A couple of recent events parts of Wales did well in

Notably 25-26 Feb 04

Charts

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/20...00120040226.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/20...00220040226.gif

Which part of SE Wales do you live in as that can make a big difference.

Hi Jack

I live in Cwmbran (quite high up) any thoughts??

[J10]

Area wise, you are well situated for snow, in terms of coldness, probably one of the better places in Southern UK, but a long way East for Showers. Any front and you have got a good chance.

We will know more in a couple of days.

[mickpips]

Cheeky monkey Mickpips. This is much better than Eastenders. They are just cockerney's anyway.

Albert Square does not have Weather!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Depends on the Altitude , up the apple and pears and chas n dave could be sat in a blizzard

*EDIT* If we get much more viewing it is gonna take up my full screen with users reading !!

Edited November 20, 2005 by mickpips

[cj114]

Trouble is, we had all this in Feb. I sat and watched and got all excited!!!!!!!!!!!! Then 20 miles down the road Kent got the lot.

In fact it was sunny here and a friend was STRANDED in Kent................................I thought he was joking.

So afraid the same will happen again. Kent will get it all again........................and it's not even their turn.

[Nick F]

Noticed a rather dramatic warm up of 850 hPa temps over Greenland during this week on the 18z, from -20/-30C on Weds rising to +0/5C over much of Greenland by Friday evening - that's some WAA!

Weds: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/wz/pics/Rtavn722.gif

Fri: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/wz/pics/Rtavn1202.gif

[derbyshire_lad]

When was the BBC Online 5-Day forecast ever right?

the bbc ceefax page 406 5 day forecasts are the biggest joke going they are basically never right so i would just disregard this to be honest.

[cj114]

Oh, forgot about the M11 event.........................o.k so we have had snow sometimes I suppose.

Winge, winge.

No, don't want that again, my mate was in it for 8hrs. Having said that, there was ice on the M25 tonight and no sign of any gritters.

Do they never learn?

[Polar Low]

Well im off for the night, Im sure when I come back at 3pm tommorow this board will still be buzzing, eagerly awaiting the next models to come out..

All in all, and excellent day weather-wise, 18z showing excellent potential, and a frost tonight!

[andy_leics22]

well looks like if this comes off we will have to be careful because our car is crap in the snow i am travelling down to birmigham friday night then to leicester on saturday for the sheffield united game.

just hope if it does come off we don't get stuck in anything like the chaos that happened on the m11 that time.

I'll be at that game, as a leicester fan ill have to look out for you

[HappyHatter]

The gritters policy is to grit after it gets serious...... what they don't realise is that they arn't invincible to the icy roads

[swebby]

Evening,

I'm not wishing to to hex anything or to count my chickens (blah blah) but the forecast cold spell looks pretty much set in stone now, even if it's severity is still very much open to debate. So i was wondering what may lead to the eventual breakdown in this pattern and what signs should we be looking for?

It has a Proper Greenland block

Nothing will topple that

I presume that previous north alantic blocks (eg 80's and 63) eventually came to end basically because of the onset of spring (inreases in solar energy input??) but this is very early in the season so how could things pan out???

Steve mentiond a 4 wave pattern!

that 4 wave pattern isnt similar to the tropical waves that float across from africa to the states in the hurricane season is it ?

I have no idea what this is and as there were not many replies (Unable to open max pb's lnk for some reason) i was wondering if someone could give a simple answer (my google search was not much help either! -a fluid dynamics/physics term??)

Cheers

S

PS -Thought i would post here as i fear this question would get buried in the end of november thread, plus i'm thinking longer term.

OK - Still searching google but I wil now hazard a guess that it is some kind of standing wave in the jet stream?????

Edited November 20, 2005 by swebby

[The Enforcer]

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/20...00120040226.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/20...00220040226.gif

Those charts epitomise how scenarios that look great for snow on paper produce very little away from the usual favoured locations.

[Evo]

I'll stick my neck out here and have a go. Warning: the information contained within may be total bullplop.

A bit of background. The Polar Front Jet or PFJ circulates the globe from West to East. During the summer it moves North and during the winter it sinks South. If the jet circulates in a very flat pattern with little north and southwards variation it is said to be zonal. When the jet is zonal, the weather of countries near the jet will be dominated by westerly winds. In our case, this means generally mild and wet weather coming in off the Atlantic. Places north of the PFJ will be in cold air and placed South of the PFJ will be mild. If the jet is zonal, it will generally be to the North of us, leaving us with mild, wet weather.

The jet is never perfectly flat though and it will have kinks in it which are called long waves (long waves are also called Rossby Waves). If these waves amplify sufficiently you enter a meridional flow where cold air flows south from the Arctic and warm air flows north. This happens side by side with Southerly winds pushing the warm air North and Northerly winds flooding cold air South.

I think what Steve was referring to with a 4 wave pattern is that there are four Rossby waves in the PFJ, which produces a stable jet flow - potentially for quite a while, and this implies that our current synoptics stay locked in because the jet doesn't flatten and break through the Mid-Atlantic block.

That's my understanding anyway, I'm sure someone more knowlegable can correct me if it's all wrong!

[Snow Queen one]

I'll stick my neck out here and have a go. Warning: the information contained within may be total bullplop.

A bit of background. The Polar Front Jet or PFJ circulates the globe from West to East. During the summer it moves North and during the winter it sinks South. If the jet circulates in a very flat pattern with little north and southwards variation it is said to be zonal. When the jet is zonal, the weather of countries near the jet will be dominated by westerly winds. In our case, this means generally mild and wet weather coming in off the Atlantic. Places north of the PFJ will be in cold air and placed South of the PFJ will be mild. If the jet is zonal, it will generally be to the North of us, leaving us with mild, wet weather.

The jet is never perfectly flat though and it will have kinks in it which are called long waves (long waves are also called Rossby Waves). If these waves amplify sufficiently you enter a meridional flow where cold air flows south from the Arctic and warm air flows north. This happens side by side with Southerly winds pushing the warm air North and Northerly winds flooding cold air South.

I think what Steve was referring to with a 4 wave pattern is that there are four Rossby waves in the PFJ, which produces a stable jet flow - potentially for quite a while, and this implies that our current synoptics stay locked in because the jet doesn't flatten and break through the Mid-Atlantic block.

That's my understanding anyway, I'm sure someone more knowlegable can correct me if it's all wrong!

Wow Evo that was a realy good explanation i understood it in leymans terms.

Thanks

[dinger]

Evening,

I'm not wishing to to hex anything or to count my chickens (blah blah) but the forecast cold spell looks pretty much set in stone now, even if it's severity is still very much open to debate. So i was wondering what may lead to the eventual breakdown in this pattern and what signs should we be looking for?

I presume that previous north alantic blocks (eg 80's and 63) eventually came to end basically because of the onset of spring (inreases in solar energy input??) but this is very early in the season so how could things pan out???

Steve mentiond a 4 wave pattern!

I have no idea what this is and as there were not many replies (Unable to open max pb's lnk for some reason) i was wondering if someone could give a simple answer (my google search was not much help either! -a fluid dynamics/physics term??)

Cheers

S

PS -Thought i would post here as i fear this question would get buried in the end of november thread, plus i'm thinking longer term.

OK - Still searching google but I wil now hazard a guess that it is some kind of standing wave in the jet stream?????

Swebby

Why don't you pm this to one of the forecasters or Mr Murr himself. I am sure one of them could provide an answer.

You could possibly try it on the busier thread. It's a very good question and I am sure a few of us would like to see an answer to it

Colin

[Snow Queen one]

Can anybody tell me if this poss snow event could poss cause problems for travel from Devon to Kent on Friday during the day? My 17 year old daughter left today for a A level feild trip in Devon and is due to come home Fri could this cause a delay or will she come into the poss snow when she hits |Kent?

Thanks for the replys in advance.

[Snow_Fan_Man]

It's possible Snow Queen, but i think you would find a more accurate answer if you ask again on Wednesday or so, as things tend to change from now to crunch time