General Winter Discussion

[Thundersquall]

I know people focus on low ground in these situations because most people live there. But some of us have use the high routes to get to work, and tiny minority live 400m>600m asl.

Snowfall looks possible at high levels for next week or so. Condtions in these areas could be severe, and could cause prolonged problems for transport at high levels.

Mark

Barnard Castle,Co Durham

I will probably be in dry sunny Bristol as usual, listening to the severe weather news stories from just about everywhere else! That is what it's usually like living in the West Country during winter.

[derbyshire_lad]

well travel as a whole could be affected at the weekend i hope it doesn't cause chaos on the motorways because i am off to a football match saturday which i hope will not be affected either.

anyone know whether leicester is forecast snow for saturday ???

[J10]

Those charts epitomise how scenarios that look great for snow on paper produce very little away from the usual favoured locations.

Those charts featured did superbly well for much of Wales including areas that usually miss out.

[WINTRY WALES]

Those charts featured did superbly well for much of Wales including areas that usually miss out.

Hi Jack

Do you tthink the showers will blow inland right across wales??

[Thundersquall]

Well the cold spell next week looks as if it's been upgraded some what. -5 to perhaps -8c HPA for the south. Smiler for the north, maybe down to -10c HPA;

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/wz/pics/Rtavn962.gif

Looks favourable for snow for even areas as far south as the south coast.

It generally stays unseasonably cold right to the end of November with Milder air pushed way out west (With the kind of Set-up Greenland looks mild) Although the milder air does try and push in.

It stays cold right the way into December with all the runs indicating at an Exceptionaly long cold spell. Never seen before recently, probably since February 1986 (With comparable number of below average days for southern england)

EDIT; Here's the FAX chart

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/wz/pics/brack4a.gif

Also, of very light northerly winds after Saturday may bring temperatures down, over northern Scotland over the snow fields possibly as low as -15c over night? Favourable for say Caingorm moutains.

If it got this low would -15C be a minimum temperature record for November in the British Isles?

[Bl!zzard]

Will a wet ground surface affect the precipitation of Snow? Because in bristol on the Thursday were expected light rain, but the on the Friday there is a 70% chance of snow. If it does snow will it still accumulate with a wet ground surface?

[kold weather]

No Thundersquall, the lowest ever November min was -23C in November 1919 I believe which is up there with some of the coldest mins ever yet alone in just November. Still IF( and I doubt it'd happen) temps did get down to -15C under some thick snowcover and under clear skies somewhere in Scotland then thats still ultra cold for the time of year, but no not a record.

[Optimus Prime]

If it got this low would -15C be a minimum temperature record for November in the British Isles?

No. The record stands at Braemar, -23.3 on the 14th of the year 1919. The cold spell that year would be considered exceptional for winter, let alone Autumn.

I think -15c is possible. But probably not likely.

[Thundersquall]

No. The record stands at Braemar, -23.3 on the 14th of the year 1919. The cold spell that year would be considered exceptional for winter, let alone Autumn.

I think -15c is possible. But probably not likely.

Was the winter of 1919 worse than those of 1947 and 1963?

It's unfortunate that two of our worst winters have occured just after the ends of both World Wars.

[Optimus Prime]

Was the winter of 1919 worse than those of 1947 and 1963?

Nowhere near .The CET from December 1919 to February 1920 was very mild with an overall CET of 5.5c compared to the average of 4.0c during that period.

Although January and February of 1919 were cold;

January 2.9c compared to the average of 3.8c

February; 1.9c compared to the 3.8c average.

Edited November 21, 2005 by Optimus Prime

[Rich_Clements]

Was the winter of 1919 worse than those of 1947 and 1963?

It's unfortunate that two of our worst winters have occured just after the ends of both World Wars.

I read somewhere once that the shelling in thre first world war effected the weather?? maybe me looking far too deep

[Evo]

I agree Ian. I posted somewhere earlier that it looked to me that because the UKMO weren't sure of the specifics of the LPs position, they just looked up in the stats book which areas are most often affected by a northerly. The chart also looks more like a snow chance chart than a chance of disruption chart!

[Polar Continental]

Will a wet ground surface affect the precipitation of Snow? Because in bristol on the Thursday were expected light rain, but the on the Friday there is a 70% chance of snow. If it does snow will it still accumulate with a wet ground surface?

Hi Bl!zzard,

Wet surfaces soon begin to freeze once the ground temperature falls to freezing or below, so regardless whether it’s wet or not, if it’s cold enough the snow will settle. A dry surface with +ve surface temperature will soon turn wet if snow fall upon it, though if the snow is heavy enough, there may be a temporary cover.

Regards

Paul

[Bl!zzard]

Hi Bl!zzard,

Wet surfaces soon begin to freeze once the ground temperature falls to freezing or below, so regardless whether it’s wet or not, if it’s cold enough the snow will settle. A dry surface with +ve surface temperature will soon turn wet if snow fall upon it, though if the snow is heavy enough, there may be a temporary cover.

Regards

Paul

Ok cheers mate

[swebby]

And with the aforementioned section highlighted the pinnacle of a High Amplitude jet its the rare evolution of

A 4 WAVE PATTERN... ( the left one)

This basically ensures that Nothing changes fast....

S

Cheers Steve - If it is a very stable pattern why is it so rare?

S

Edited November 21, 2005 by swebby

[The Enforcer]

The chart also looks more like a snow chance chart than a chance of disruption chart!

The disruption comes from someone saying "hey look i saw a snowflake in all that rain".

[Thundery wintry showers]

Re February 2004's northerly, I recall that the problem during that northerly was more the lack of precipitation in some areas, rather than the lack of cold air, and this in spite of anomalously high SSTs to our north.

In most of the areas hit by heavy snow (Wales, N & E Scotland, NE England) the snow stuck around quite well- Tyne & Wear and Durham had snow that took 5 days to thaw in bright sunshine. However, much of Lancashire, for example, had just one light snowfall overnight 26th/27th, which easily thawed the next day. Depth of snow cover is an important factor.

I think many of us in the south and west are probably in for a letdown with just odd flurries, but I reckon that the upcoming northerly could well be quite lively for the north and east.

[Thundersquall]

The disruption comes from someone saying "hey look i saw a snowflake in all that rain".

It's disturbing, isn't it, to hear about drivers who can spot the tiniest splurge of sleet on the windscreen, when they are supposed to be concentrating on the road. The eyes should be focused onto the road (or way) ahead and not onto the windscreen!

Edited November 21, 2005 by Thundersquall

[tugmistress]

just looking through my 'local' websites, now is it me or are the orkney islands going to miss this little cold spell? do they know something we don't ? ...

this taken from their newspaper site...

Cool with temperatures in the daily range 7°C by day down to 1° or 2°C overnight and also in the heavier snow showers but turning milder by Saturday.

THURSDAY:

A cold start with a ground frost for many inland places, followed by a brighter day for all areas with some sunny or clear periods developing as wintry showers die out and F4-6 N or NNE'ly winds ease F2-4 by evening. Some areas away from coasts will see another frost overnight.

Swell - N'ly rough or very rough at 3 to 4 metres.

FRIDAY:

A fine, bright and cool start. While remaining dry, the west and north will tend to become cloudier as a F2-3 SW'ly wind develops by evening - resulting in a frost-free night for most areas.

Swell - N'ly moderate at 2 metres.

SATURDAY:

Becoming generally cloudy with F3-5 SW'ly winds. The west and north is likely to see some patchy drizzle with the south and east remaining mostly dry.

Swell - N'ly slight or moderate at 1 to 2 metres.

hmmmmmmmmm

[The PIT]

It's disturbing, isn't it, to hear about drivers who can spot the tiniest splurge of sleet on the windscreen, when they are supposed to be concentrating on the road. The eyes should be focused onto the road (or way) ahead and not onto the windscreen!

Hopefully the Women I was behind this evening won't be in it. Had no idea how wide her vehicle was and used the white line as the line to drive down. If she ever sees a Snowflake she'd stop dead and ring her husband on a mobile to bring a shovel.

If gets heavy enougth I may take some photos of how safe these speedhumps are in snow.

[Thundery wintry showers]

I don't think the stories of drivers seeing sleet is that worrying, to be honest. If they are looking at the road ahead their windscreens are right in front of them- and some roads require more concentration than others; also they may stop at a layby to watch the windscreen. Of 'problems' involving driving that must be near the bottom of the list.

Sleet isn't hard to see (or hear) on a windscreen anyway as it makes more of an icy sound.

[james990]

Anyone else noticing the extreme fog tonight? I haven't seen it this bad for a long time. I can barely see the road from my house.

[noggin]

Yes, it's so foggy here that in my garden I can actually hear the moisture dripping from the trees! Doesn't seem so frosty tonight, though.

[Evo]

It's disturbing, isn't it, to hear about drivers who can spot the tiniest splurge of sleet on the windscreen, when they are supposed to be concentrating on the road. The eyes should be focused onto the road (or way) ahead and not onto the windscreen!

Yahoo News Article

just looking through my 'local' websites, now is it me or are the orkney islands going to miss this little cold spell? do they know something we don't ? ...

I'm guessing they haven't seen this:

Precip Type Chart

Brrrrrrr

[Andy H]

just seen the bbc news 24 and they are now saying blizzard conditions but stopped short of saying where